Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 151213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
813 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Surface high pressure will ridge east into the Mid Atlantic through
Monday, while a tropical cyclone moves east offshore the SE coast,
remaining well south of the forecast area. A back door front
will move into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday behind the
departing offshore cyclone. Cooler air will build into the
region late week behind the front.


Weak high pressure remains in control over the area while
Humberto continues its slow northward movement off the east
coast of Florida. Satellite imagery showing mainly scattered
thin high clouds with a few pockets of transient stratocumulus
clouds across NC and near the Pee Dee region.

High pressure over the region will generally prevent much in the
way of convection across the forecast area today with no upper
forcing present and little in the way of convergence with
persistent northeasterly flow. Isolated convection may develop
along the Coastal Plain on the sea breeze and reach the far
eastern Midlands late in the afternoon but limited coverage
expected so nothing higher than slight chance pops warranted.
Hi-res guidance shows little in the way of convection in our
forecast area further supporting low pops. Temperatures will be
a bit warmer today than Saturday with less clouds expected
earlier in the day. High temps expected in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

Mostly clear skies expected tonight with good radiational
cooling expected and overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s
to lower 70s.


Little change. A moderately dry atmosphere, along with some
subsidence around the periphery of the departing tropical
cyclone and an upper ridge centered just to our NW, appears
will keep convective coverage to a minimum, and mainly confined
to coastal areas where moisture is better and a sea breeze


Models indicate upper ridge to our west over the Mississippi
Valley, with upper trough over the NE US and Mid Atlantic,
steering the tropical cyclone E/NE further out to sea. Surface
high pressure building into New England, and counterclockwise
flow around the departing cyclone, will bring down a back door
front through our region. Some uncertainties with exact timing
of fropa, generally appearing to slowly push through our FA from
NE to SW late day Tuesday, Tuesday night, into Wednesday. Model
consensus generally indicates slight chance POPs near the
frontal boundary.

Fair and cooler conditions expected behind the boundary Wed
thru Fri as surface high pressure builds in. Long range guidance
appears to be trending a tad cooler. Continued fair Sat but
with some temp recovery with center of surface high pressure
over the region, and upper ridge building east over the region.


VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure will remain in control of the region through the
period with northeasterly winds pushing moisture onshore.
Instability will remain limited through the period with
convection expected in the Coastal Plain. Cumulus will develop
during the late morning and afternoon hours then dissipate this
evening with loss of heating. Winds overnight will remain
northerly around 5 knots as the pressure gradient tightens
slightly with TS Humberto slowly moving northward.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated mainly diurnal convection
and associated restrictions Monday. Late night/early morning
Fog/stratus possible with associated restrictions each morning.




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