Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 101157
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
757 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level
trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable
air mass will remain across the area through most of the week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day primarily during the afternoon and evening periods.
Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave energy currently moving through southern KY into
eastern TN will be pushing into and east of the central
Appalachians by this afternoon. The day will start off dry, but
as the upper energy begins to interact with old outflow
boundaries, along with an atmosphere that is expected to become
moderately unstable by early afternoon, expect another round of
convection across the region. Have gone with scattered to
numerous activity by the mid-late afternoon. Cannot rule out a
few stronger pulse storms, with the main threats being heavy
rainfall and periods of strong gusty winds. Afternoon highs in
the lower 90s. Shower/storms will last into the evening and
early portions of the overnight hours again. Activity should
diminish towards Midnight, with isolated showers still possible
the remainder of the night. Overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bermuda ridge offshore and weak sfc-700mb low over the area
through the period. Mid level trough across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Models suggest an increase in moisture
across the area with precipitable water above 2 inches across
most of the region by Wednesday. Air mass will likely be
at least moderately unstable. With Several weak mid level short
waves rotating through the area enhancing lift expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms with focus mainly in the
afternoon and evening with peak heating although showers
possible at any time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deepening moisture across the area and increasing as southwest
flow strengthens. Weak surface trough remains across the area.
Upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley will move slowly east.
Mid level short waves continue to provide lift across the area.
There is potential for locally heavy rain at times with
precipitable water likely above 2 inches at least through
Friday and moderate instability.  Temperatures will be near
normal during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions outside of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

Satellite imagery this morning showing mostly clear skies
across the region. A cumulus deck will develop around midday. A
shortwave trough is expected to approach the region by early
afternoon and coupled with higher moisture across the region
should lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms are
expected especially in stronger storms. Have a TEMPO group at
all sites from 19-23z when coverage should be greatest. VCTS
remains prevailing through 03z as convection should hang on a
bit longer than it has the past couple of days with better
forcing present. Model guidance indicates some potential for fog
development late tonight mainly at AGS, but the chance was too
low to include at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day
in mainly diurnally driven convection as well as increased
potential for late night/early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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