Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221842
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along with dry weather and a warming trend will
remain over the region through Wednesday. The next low pressure
system and cold front will move into the area late in the week
bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis to the west of the region will gradually
shift east overnight with northwesterly flow aloft across the
forecast area. Surface high pressure will remain in place across
the area through tonight along with a relatively dry air mass.
Weak warm advection and downslope flow have allowed temperatures
to already warm into the 70s this afternoon. Winds expected to
be light and variable with pressure ridge across area. Strong
radiational cooling again tonight supports overnight lows in the
lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid and upper level ridging over the region will weaken a bit
Wednesday as an upper low crosses the Great Lakes Region. The ridge
will rebuild Wednesday night then move off the coast late Thursday.
Surface high pressure over the area Tuesday will slip to the south
Wednesday, but will remain in control. Dry weather along with
above normal temperatures are forecast. Although the airmass
will become unstable during peak heating, moisture will be
lacking. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low and mid
80s on Tuesday then warm to the mid and upper 80s by Thursday.
Overnight low will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure developing over TX will track through the northern Gulf
of Mexico through Saturday. This will drag a cold front across our
area Friday. The long range models continue to diverge on the
position and timing of the southern stream low pressure system to
our south. So, confidence remains below normal for weekend forecast.
We continued a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night
through Sunday, with the best chance on Friday with the frontal
passage.

Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly above
normal .

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period.
There is a risk of early morning fog at AGS and OGB.

Surface high pressure in place across the region coupled with a
dry airmass will continue to promote dry weather and mostly
clear skies through Tuesday. The pressure gradient will be weak
so light and variable winds expected. Strong net radiational
cooling again tonight. With slight increase in low level
moisture, there may be fog at fog prone terminals, AGS and OGB.
A period of MVFR visibility forecast late tonight at those
sites, otherwise clear.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Expect mainly VFR conditions
through Thursday with high pressure dominating. The chance of
showers and associated restrictions will return Thursday night
and Friday as low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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