Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 200534
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Despite gusty north winds, beautiful weather was in place this
afternoon across all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and
northeast Missouri. This was ahead of broad high pressure centered
over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, with ridging extending north
towards Lake Superior. The gusty winds were due to a tight pressure
gradient between the ridge and a strengthening surface low pressure
over eastern Tennessee, which was producing severe weather across
much of the southeast United States. Temperatures as of 2 PM ranged
from 56 in Freeport, to 62 in the Quad Cities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the region heading into
the Easter Weekend, as the high pressure ridging builds across the
Mississippi River Valley. Gusty north winds will gradually
diminish this evening as the pressure gradient weakens. With RH
values in the upper 20s to lower 30s, there will be a somewhat
heightened risk of favorable fire weather conditions through the
evening. Therefore, use caution if planning to burn as fires will
have the potential to spread quickly over dry grounds.

Overall northerly flow will remain in place, and will keep
temperatures below normal for tonight. However, temperatures will be
on a moderating trend beginning Saturday as mid-level ridging and
850 mb temps around 10-15 C build across the area. Have overnight
lows in the middle to upper 30s, with Saturday afternoon highs in
the middle 60s in the east, to near 70 in the west (closer to the
upper level ridging).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Sunday...

Will be the nicest day of the weekend by far as the high pressure
moves to our east, allowing for the return of southerly flow. Expect
partly to mostly sunny skies and a warm day, with deep mixing
leading to afternoon highs in the middle 70s to near 80!

Sunday Night through Monday Night...

Chances for precipitation will begin to increase during this period
with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. The GFS, which
was the wettest model for this period with Thursday`s 12z run, has
trended drier with the 06z and 12z runs today. This is due to the
front being analyzed a bit further north with latest forecasts.
Little change as been noted with latest runs of the CMC and ECMWF,
leading to higher confidence of the forecast evolution with this
package.

Expect much of Sunday night to remain dry, with chances of showers
and thunderstorms increasing after 12z Monday. The best chance will
be during the afternoon and evening, especially along and north of I-
80. At this time, the threat for organized severe weather is low
mainly due to the lack of vertical shear. We will not be short of
instability however, as latest NAMnest and GFS forecast soundings
give us a generous 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE the south of the front
for Monday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts and information as we get closer to this period.

Tuesday On...

Latest guidance shows quiet and dry conditions are primarily expected
during this period with several rounds of high pressure. There may
be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday Night and Wednesday
morning with a passing shortwave, but there is little agreement
of this amongst the global models. Expect changes to this forecast
with later packages.

Temperatures will be near to below normal for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

A ridge of high pressure over the region will provide VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds today and tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Short and long term hydro concerns continue to focus mainly on the
Mississippi River. This morning, a river levels at a majority of
sites from from Dubuque LD 11 to Gregory Landing were falling, while
only a few sites, such Muscatine, saw near steady river levels.

Over the next week, attention will be focused primarily on potential
for significant rises along the Mississippi, especially from Dubuque
to the Quad Cities. This is due to a combination of heavy rain that
fell across Minnesota and Wisconsin Wednesday, and runoff from a
melted 8-12 inch snowpack. Current ensembles from the RFC are
incorporating this combined runoff, but potential crest levels are
not currently in the 7 day forecasts. Therefore, there remains a bit
of uncertainty with just how high the river will get at all points,
especially as flow works through the dams. Please stay tuned to the
latest products and information.

In our neck of the woods, quiet weather will been seen through the
weekend as high pressure passes. Looking ahead, latest model
guidance is hinting at several chances of precipitation from Sunday
night through Tuesday night. However, Dprog/Dt analysis shows a
drying trend with latest guidance, so confidence of widespread
precipitation is low.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Sheets
HYDROLOGY...Speck


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