Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

/12Z TAFs/
Southerly winds have returned to the region in response to a
developing low pressure system in the west. Although low level
moisture will increase through the day, stratus will likely remain
confined to Central Texas this morning. Therefore, Waco may see
some brief low clouds, but these should remain scattered.

Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through this evening
with only some scattered to broken high clouds, mainly this
evening. A 40+ knot low level jet is progged to develop tonight
which will bring a better surge of moisture and low clouds
northward. We will carry some MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites just
prior to sunrise Monday.

Southerly winds will quickly increase through the day due to a
tightening pressure gradient. Expect sustained wind speeds between
14 and 19 knots from late morning through afternoon with some
gusts near 30 knots. Wind speeds will briefly decrease around
sunset, but will increase again late in the evening/overnight.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019/
The upper ridge that was largely responsible for the beautiful
weather we experienced on Saturday will shift eastward today while
an upper trough deepens over the Great Basin. Westerly flow over
the Central and Southern Rockies will result in surface lee
troughing, a deepening surface pressure gradient and increasing
southerly winds. Wind speeds will likely reach Wind Advisory
criteria (25 mph for 2+ hours) across all but the eastern zones.
Therefore, we will issue a Wind Advisory from noon until 7 PM
along and west of a line from Bonham to Waxahachie to Temple.
Increasing low level warm/moist advection will also result in a
warm and somewhat humid day with afternoon highs generally in the
80s under a mostly sunny sky.

Wind speeds will decrease slightly around sunset with the
decoupling boundary layer, but a breezy south wind will develop
late in the evening as some higher momentum air from a 40+ knot
low level jet works its way down to the surface. The low level
jet will also aid in the development of low clouds across the
Texas Hill Country late in the evening. These low clouds will work
their way northward into North Texas overnight/early Monday
morning. The combination of breezy winds, humid air and an
increase in cloud cover will yield a mild night with lows mainly
in the 60s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019/
/Monday through Saturday/

The main story for the upcoming week continues to be the expected
widespread rainfall event Tuesday through Thursday. Some minor
flooding concerns may accompany this latest round of rain, and
some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
at this stage.

Cloudiness will gradually increase across North Central Texas
Monday, as a broad southwesterly upper level flow regime draws
upper level moisture eastward from the Pacific. In the lower
levels, breezy southerly winds will also continue to transport
Gulf moisture northward into the area.

The large-scale models remain in good agreement regarding the
evolution of the upper level trough/low pressure system
responsible for this week`s weather show. This trough should move
from the Southwest U.S. on Monday to an axis running from El Paso
to Salina, KS by Wednesday morning. Strong forcing for ascent will
overspread our area starting early Tuesday and intensifying
Wednesday, helping to steepen our mid-level lapse rates.

While the models are closely aligned with the upper pattern
through midweek, modest differences do exist in the surface
features. The NAM, as expected, tends to be a little more
aggressive in pushing a cold front southward through North Texas
on Tuesday, while the GFS and Euro delay the arrival of this
boundary until Wednesday. Given the orientation of the upper
trough to our west with deep southerly flow ahead of it, have
leaned toward the slower solution offered by the GFS/Euro, both of
which shift the low level baroclinic zone slowly eastward across
North Texas from Tuesday morning into Wednesday night. Have
maintained the trend of previous forecasts packages in bringing
high PoPs eastward across our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Ample moisture will be pouring northward into our region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and with most unstable CAPEs exceeding 1000
J/kg in many areas, expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms
area-wide. Hard to pinpoint exactly where the best heavy rainfall
potential will be, but it`ll probably be linked to the placement
of the baroclinic zone Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Expect
most areas to pick up at least another inch of rainfall with this
system, and some locales should see anywhere from 2-3" inches,
given the healthy precipitable water values being advertised.
Would not be surprised to see some minor flooding issues arise
from this event, given the antecedent rainfall that`s occurred in
many areas over the past couple of weeks.

A potential for strong or severe thunderstorms, while not
clear cut at this point, will probably evolve over the south
central and southeast portions of our forecast area Wednesday,
ahead of the approaching frontal boundary in a region with
slightly higher 0-6km shear values.

Both the Euro and GFS close off the upper low over North Texas by
Thursday morning, deepen it, and shift it quickly eastward
through the afternoon. This pattern should yield nice subsidence,
and a marked cutoff to the precipitation shield that shunts
eastward Thursday. In the wake of the upper low, shortwave ridging
will develop over our region, delivering nice weather from Friday
through next weekend.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  63  80  65  76 /   0   0   0   5  50
Waco                81  63  80  64  76 /   0   0   0   0  30
Paris               79  58  78  61  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              81  63  80  63  75 /   0   0   0  10  60
McKinney            79  62  79  63  76 /   0   0   0   5  40
Dallas              82  64  81  65  77 /   0   0   0   5  40
Terrell             80  62  81  62  78 /   0   0   0   0  30
Corsicana           80  62  79  63  76 /   0   0   0   0  30
Temple              82  63  80  65  76 /   0   0   0   0  30
Mineral Wells       84  63  81  62  74 /   0   0   0  10  60


Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for



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