Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231141 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

/12z TAFs/

Stratus is once again quite splotchy this morning across the Hill
Country, but will make a run at the Waco TAF site shortly. Some
brief IFR cigs appear possible through about 14z, before a rapid
improvement to MVFR and then VFR by 16z occurs. Across the
Metroplex, can`t rule out cigs taking a brief dip to FL025 towards
15-16z, but this isn`t worth a mention in the TAFs. Yesterday`s
mid-level weakness is still present, and will drift a bit farther
to the northwest today. This may allow showers and some
thunderstorms to focus within a band of enhanced instability just
to the north and east of the Metroplex terminals. Coverage of any
storms appears too low for a TS mention, but will introduce VCSH
during peak-heating this afternoon. With somewhat higher coverage
of storms off to the north and east, some impacts to
east/northbound departures and arrivals through the Bonham
cornerpost will be possible. To the south, activity may push
across Waco with the sea breeze, and have inserted a VCSH mention
from 23-02z to account for this potential.

South to southeast winds of less than 12 kts will persist through
the TAF period.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Our stagnant weather pattern will continue today, with another
warm and humid afternoon on tap across the region. Temperatures
will be similar (or a smidge warmer) than they were on Tuesday.
Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
today in the vicinity of a lingering weakness in the mid-level
flow. The two main areas for pop-up storms seems to be 1) in the
vicinity of a northwest-southeast oriented instability axis from
near Bowie to Canton, and 2) along potential sea-breeze induced
activity across some of our Central Texas counties. Coverage once
again should remain fairly low, but we`ve added some 40% PoPs
across our northeastern counties where CAMs are hinting at
somewhat higher convective coverage this afternoon. Activity will
cease after sunset.

Otherwise, some very localized light fog will be possible this
morning, but any visibility reductions look too isolated to
warrant an inclusion at this point.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/
/Thursday through Wednesday/

As an upper level ridge settles into the region by the weekend,
hot temperatures will be the main headline, and our main message
going into the holiday weekend will be protection from heat-
related illnesses or worse, fatalities. The tropics and Gulf of
Mexico will also continue to be monitored as this is where an
upper level trough/low and surface low are forecast to develop
this weekend.

North and Central Texas will remain in a disorganized weak upper
level pattern on Thursday, but then the upper level ridge will
strengthen across the region beginning Friday. The operational
models continue to keep the upper level trough/low that develops
over the Gulf of Mexico to our east this weekend, but the ECMWF
has shifted its track a little farther to the west on the last 2
model runs. The majority of ensemble guidance also keeps the
track of this system well to our east. It does not appear this
upper level feature will have a significant impact on our area
with the upper level ridge maintaining its hold on the region, but
if a solution closer to the ECMWF is realized, we may need higher
PoPs across at least our eastern counties early next week.

A rapid warm-up is expected in time for the weekend with nearly
every location expected to be in the 90s starting Friday. Triple
digit temperatures are expected in our western counties starting
Saturday. Over the long holiday weekend, those engaged in outdoor
activities need to take precautions to protect themselves from
the heat.

Thursday through Saturday, have kept low PoPs across locations
along and east of Interstate 35/35E where isolated to scattered
convection may occur in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Severe weather is not expected but gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall are possible. Rainfall chances decrease for the
remainder of the forecast with the upper level ridge keeping a lid
on any further convective chances. One possibility we may need to
watch is MCS activity moving south through the Plains under the
influence of northerly flow aloft. A few models are hinting at
this potential Friday night into Saturday and possibly Monday
night into Tuesday. At this time, the development of a possible
MCS Friday night looks too far north to reach North Texas within a
weak flow regime. Also, as mentioned above, if the upper level
trough is able to weaken the eastern parts of the upper level
ridge early next week, scattered showers and storms may occur
again in our eastern counties.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  72  90  71  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
Waco                90  69  90  69  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
Paris               87  68  89  68  90 /  40  20  30  20  30
Denton              90  69  90  69  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
McKinney            89  70  89  69  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
Dallas              91  74  91  72  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
Terrell             90  70  90  69  93 /  30  20  30  20  20
Corsicana           88  71  88  69  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
Temple              89  68  89  69  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       90  67  92  67  94 /  10   5  10   5  10




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