Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280618
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
118 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Aloft: Aircraft obs/WV imgry/RAP analyses show the polar jet
remains far to the N over Canada. A cut-off low was over NV/UT
with svrl vort maxima orbiting around it. This low is fcst to lift
into WY tomorrow. SW flow was over the Plns and a weak shortwave
trof extended from NW-SE across NE/KS/OK. This trof will lift N
and E of the CWA this eve. The flow will remain from the SW thru
tomorrow. A vort max will rotate around the low and arrive into
Ern CO during peak heating tomorrow.

Surface: The CWA was in the warm sector. Multiple fronts existed
across the Nrn USA with low pres over SD. A weak cool front
extended SW from this low into the Wrn USA. With minimal movement
aloft...the fronts will move little...leaving the CWA in the warm
sector.

Rest of This Afternoon: P/sunny...hot and breezy. We weren`t
exactly sure how the high clds would impact temps. They weren`t
held down as much as expected. GRI/HJH will be close to 100F
again.

See CLI section below for records.

Tonight: Isolated tstms will develop just W of the CWA this
afternoon/eve. The weakened remnants of some of this activity
could move into areas W of Hwy 183 after midnight...sustained by a
40 kt low-lvl jet. Not expecting anything strong or svr.

Tomorrow: Some isolated shwr/tstm activity will probably linger
into the AM hrs W of Hwy 281 and then end with a break probable in
the afternoon (although POPs were not entirely removed from the
fcst). Sct to numerous tstms to erupt again W of the CWA late
afternoon. See below for more thoughts on tomorrow night.

Debris clds along with lower 1000-500 mb thickness and H8 temps
will keep temps in the low 90s...except upr 80s LXN-ODX.

Breezy again...especially along and W of Hwy 281.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Aloft: The low currently over NV/UT will weaken gradually lift
into the ND/SD Tue. The tail end of the trof will cross Neb/KS Tue
night. Heights will rise in its wake Wed-Thu as the next deep
trof moves onshore in the W. SW flow will develop Fri as the ridge
departs to the E and the Wrn trof conts pressing E. While the
last 2 runs of global models are in general agreement on this...
there is significant spread/uncertainty beginning Fri on the
development and evolution of embedded lows/vort maxima within the
trof. It says something significant that the last 3 EC runs are in
poor agreement with the shortwave trofs.

The 00Z EC ensemble mean suggests the depth/strength of the
longwave trof will diminish next wknd as a large subtropical high
expands over TX/MX. The 00Z/12Z op EC runs do agree on that.

Surface: The CWA will remain in the warm sector Tue. The weak
cool front currently creeping thru the Wrn USA will finally move
into the near daybreak Wed...but it will barely be identifiable.
The pres gradient will be weak Wed-Thu. A mature warm sector will
develop over the Plns Fri as low pres forms over the Nrn Plns.
There are hints that a warm front will form and lift N thru the
Cntrl Plns. The cool front associated with the low and weakening
Wrn upr trof is fcst to move thru Sat. There is ensemble support
for this. Then high pres will arrive Sun.

Temps: Continuing above to way above normal. Tue will be the
coolest day of the week with clds/spotty precip keeping temps in
the 80s. Fri will probably be the hottest day of the week.

Precip: Sct tstms will be on-going over Wrn Neb/KS Mon eve. Some
of this activity could meander into the CWA Mon night...mainly W
of Hwy 281. It`s possible storm mergers from outflow dominant
storms could result in the formation of an MCS that slides SE into
parts of the CWA. If this occurs...damaging winds would be the
primary threat associated with the cold pool.

Tue: There is considerable uncertainty due to the possibility of
a decaying MCS over or near the CWA. Heating could be impaired
for part of the day. Regardless...with the main trof moving thru
Tue eve we should see sct to possibly numerous tstms erupt mainly
after 23Z.

0-6 km shear will average around 20 kt resulting in outflow-
driven multicell convective mode. MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg will
support severe updrafts.

Beyond Tue night there are no foreseeable good chances for rain.
The late week trof will advect a fresh/uncontaminated EML over the
Plns Fri. This will pretty much shutdown tstm potential. The EC
indicates a plume of H7 temps as high as +18C will surge over the
rgn. That will be essentially unbreakable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

There will be some low level wind shear around through dawn, but
not strong enough to include in the TAF. We do not expect to reach
convective temperatures today so the only clouds will likely be
high clouds, which may increase in the evening as thunderstorms
form off to the west. Thunderstorms could slip into the area by
late evening, but are more likely to remain west of our TAF sites.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...More Records Tied/Broken (or about to be Tied/Broken) Today...

Record High Temps for Sunday:
Grand Island....97 in 1912 (High as of 19Z: 96F)
Hastings........93 in 2006, 1974, 1913 (High as of 19Z: 93F)

Record Warm Low Temps for Sunday:
Grand Island....67 in 2006, 1969 (Ob this AM: 72F)
Hastings........68 in 1931 (Ob this AM: 69)

These records warm lows were broken this AM. RER`s are being
composed and will be sent soon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Wesely



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