Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162357
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
657 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This evening into tonight...
Will be watching thunderstorms just to the west of our forecast
area, but do not expect them to make much progress to the east
given weak wind shear and slow storm motion. Severe weather
parameters (instability and shear) are weak at best across our
forecast area this evening into tonight and believe any severe
storms should remain west of our forecast area.

Monday...
We`ll have a weak frontal boundary located across our northwest
and there could be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across our western zones both in the morning and afternoon.
Weak shear and marginal instability could be enough for a strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms across our western zones Monday
afternoon, but overall not expecting too much in the way of
severe weather potential given the weak shear. Storms may be more
pulse type storms where they develop and die rather quickly with a
narrow window for being strong to severe.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The fairly typical early summer pattern will continue although it
will be a bit cooler than normal mainly Tuesday and Wednesday.
We`ll see frequent small chances for hit and miss thunderstorms
from fast moving weak upper waves. These short waves are embedded
within zonal to a slightly northwesterly flow regime aloft through
Thursday before we see a more substantial trough develop across
the western United States by Friday into the weekend.

The best chance at a more widespread shot of appreciable
precipitation would be in association with a shortwave late Monday
night through Tuesday night. Wind shear and instability are both
fairly marginal and thus we are not expecting too many severe
storms, but can`t rule out a few strong or perhaps isolated severe
storm. Rainfall amounts will likely be rather variable given weak
flow aloft and slow storm motion allowing some areas to get dumped
on while others have a near miss and see very little rain. Will
have to watch and see if we can get back into a western United
States upper trough pattern by Friday into the weekend, which
is appearing more likely as that could be more favorable for more
widespread thunderstorms and precipitation depending on the
frontal boundary location and timing of the trough moving through.
A western trough with stronger flow aloft could also increase our
severe weather chances whenever it decides to push through late in
the forecast period Friday - Sunday. After a bit of a cool down
Tuesday with the clouds and rain we should warm back up into the
lower 80s and around normal by late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

VFR conditions expected to prevail.

Currently radar shows some storms off to the west that could bring
some activity into the area over the next several hours and could
linger overnight. Ceilings are expected to lower throughout the
day tomorrow and could come close to MVFR tomorrow afternoon along
with expected storms.

Winds are expected to become light and variable for the rest of
the evening and well into tomorrow, before picking up again
tomorrow afternoon. Southerly winds are expected tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Shawkey


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