Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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739
FXUS63 KGID 211128
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Today`s forecast has two areas of concern. The first is near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions across northern
Kansas this afternoon. See the fire weather section below for more
information on this. The other is scattered thunderstorms this
evening (some of which could be severe).

Models have continued to trend slower with the frontal passage
for the local area, and as a result today may end up
significantly warmer than depicted by previous forecasts. In
fact, some locations may only end up a few degrees cooler than on
Saturday. Winds will start out southerly to southeasterly,
gradually shifting to the west and northwest as the surface low
moves into the area in the afternoon and evening.

A few sprinkles are already showing up on radar this morning, but
I expect that thunderstorm activity will hold off until around 6-
7pm this evening as capping remains in place through the
afternoon. After 6-7pm, short term models show widely scattered
thunderstorms developing in an environment characterized by up to
2000J/kg of MUCAPE and 20-35 kts of deep-layer shear. Low-level
wind profiles are not conducive for tornadoes, but the strongest
updrafts could produce severe hail or winds. With the slower trend
of the front, the entire area has been opened up for this severe
threat.

Thunderstorms will continue overnight, gradually tapering off in
the early morning hours of Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Behind the cold front, Monday will be cooler and windy. Highs are
forecast to be in the 50s and 60s, and north wind gusts of 25-35
MPH are likely. A few showers could also linger over northern
portions of the forecast area as the upper shortwave slowly exits
the area.

A warming trend sets up for Tuesday and Wednesday. It now appears
that any rain or thunderstorms will also remain south of the
forecast area through Wednesday as well.

A weak front is forecast to push through the area Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will bring us northerly winds again and could
bring a few showers to the area.

Upper level ridging then moves into the area Friday into
Saturday, which should push temperatures back to near 80 degrees.
This returning warm, moist air could bring a few thunderstorms
with it, but details and certainty remain low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Area of mid to high clouds will move off to the north later this
morning, with only a few clouds expected through the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the evening as
a cold front pushes into the area. Behind the cold front, we could
have a period of MVFR ceilings that lasts into Monday morning.

South to southeast winds prevail through the daytime hours today,
gusting to 15-20kts. Winds then become northwesterly as the front
moves through between 22 and 01Z. Gusty northwesterly winds will
continue through Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

With temperatures now expected to be in the mid to upper 80s
across northern Kansas, relative humidity values are expected to
dip to around 20 percent. There could even be a narrow corridor of
lower RH if short term models are correct.

Deep mixing to near 750mb will also promote wind gusts of 20-30
MPH over this area into the afternoon. That said, winds will shift
and likely will decrease as the surface low moves towards the
area. As a result, we are not confident with how widespread or
long-lasting the strongest winds will be.

Due to the uncertainty regarding timing of winds and differing
thresholds with neighboring counties, we will not be issuing Red
Flag Warning with this forecast package, That said, outdoor
burning is definitely not recommended today. Especially
considering the dry conditions in this area over the past month or
so.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels



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