


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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747 FXUS63 KIND 140704 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 304 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog, with areas of dense fog, will continue into this morning`s commute before mixing out - Not quite as warm today, but warm/marginally hot conditions return Tuesday - Humid this week with daily chances of showers/t-storms Tuesday and onward...isolated downpours/localized flooding possible && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Early This Morning... Upper energy moving through an upper trough overhead continues to generate some scattered showers across mainly southern portions of central Indiana. To the north and west of this area, stratus and fog were developing as the lower atmosphere remains quite moist. The showers will gradually continue to push east early this morning as the forcing from the upper energy moves east. Will continue with some PoPs south and east to account for these. Meanwhile, fog should continue to develop across the forecast area with the moist atmosphere. Fewer overall clouds will allow dense fog to spread across the northwest forecast area, so will continue with the Dense Fog Advisory. Will continue to monitor for the need for any changes to it. Today... Dense fog will mix out early today, and the stratus will gradually mix out during the morning. A cumulus field will pop up this morning and continue this afternoon. Will keep skies no better than partly cloudy. Some subsidence will move in behind the upper trough today, and this should help keep much of the northern forecast area dry. The old surface boundary across southern Indiana could still be enough to spark some scattered showers and storms. Will keep some low PoPs across mainly southern areas today. Lack of shear will keep any storms below severe levels. Clouds should break up fast enough today for enough heating to reach highs in the middle and upper 80s across the area. Tonight... Looks like any showers or storms should be gone by the start of the tonight period (or coverage will be too low to mention by then). Much of the night will then be quiet with no forcing around. Late tonight, 850mb winds turn southerly, and this may produce enough lift for some isolated showers across the extreme southern forecast area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Much of the same mid-summer humid and very warm/hot conditions can be expected through the rest of the week. Although the synoptic pattern just north of Indiana will be trending more active...with a stronger zonal gradient amid a 700-mile deep band spanning the Canadian border. While there had been a signal for a portion of the cooler weather under these lower heights to plunge into the Midwest late this week...the last several model runs are now conceding perhaps a weaker cool front would only drag it`s marginally milder conditions into the Midwest while more noticeable humidity relief stays well to our north across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile surface low pressure will likely take residence, off the southern edge of any northern/cooler weather, over the west-central Plains. Extending eastward, the quasi-stationary cool front can be expected to meander slightly north/south over the Midwest...as embedded short waves track across the far northern CONUS. The western Plains trough will work with the broad upper subtropical ridge parked over southeastern North America...to maintain a generally southwesterly flow of Gulf moisture into Indiana. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and precipitable water values varying around 1.75-2.30 inches will be the rule. This ample deep moisture will combine with lift from the meandering boundary and perhaps the southern reaches of passing vort maxs...to promote scattered to even numerous, diurnally-enhanced, convective showers and thunderstorms. Any severe potential will be dependent on wind shear, which so far does not appear will be noteworthy through most of the week. Low confidence in the extent and details surrounding what should be a more organized, southerly progression of the cool front towards the end of the period. Higher certainty in overall minor improvements to the very warm/very humid conditions...yet convection may be stronger if better shear accompanies any brief transition. Perhaps two periods of light northwesterly flow around the late workweek/early weekend should get humidity to drop to only moderate levels, and maybe give most of the CWA a single morning below 70F. Otherwise the dog days can be expected to overall continue, with greater oppressive humidity...with afternoon maximums more likely in only the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps only a single mid-week day exhibiting widespread highs near-90. Heat indices will generally peak near the mid to upper 90s...with low-100s levels possible for some zones around the Thursday timeframe. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Impacts: - IFR and worse conditions at most sites in stratus and fog developing during the night and lasting until about 13Z - Isolated showers around during the night with isolated storms mainly southern sites Monday afternoon Discussion: Stratus and fog will continue to develop across the sites overnight, with most sites reaching IFR conditions. KLAF should see the lowest visibility with lower than IFR conditions possible. Elsewhere should see mainly MVFR visibility with IFR ceilings. Fog and stratus will mix out during the morning, with a scattered to broken cumulus field developing. Isolated showers and storms will be around at times through the period, primarily at the southern sites. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028- 029-035-036-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...AGM AVIATION...50