Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
340 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.


Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

A low pressure system and a cold front will bring rain to central
Indiana today into Friday morning. A series of systems will then
bring frequent chances for rain Saturday into next week. For much of
the period, temperatures will be near normal to below normal.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Early this morning a front was just southwest of the area. Surface
lows were back across Missouri and Arkansas. Meanwhile, an upper low
was across southern Oklahoma with an upper trough across the
northern Plains.

The upper low will open up and move northeast today while the
surface lows move northeast into the area as well. Forcing will
increase as these approach, and there is decent moisture around as
well. Will allow PoPs to gradually increase across the area today,
with most areas having high PoPs by the end of the Today period.

As the surface lows move northeast they will bring some instability
with them, so thunderstorms will be a possibility by this afternoon
as well. Precipitable water increases to over an inch, so will have
to watch for some locally heavy rain potential, mainly southeast.

Temperatures will depend on how far the front can get and rain
coverage. Will stick with a blend for now due to the uncertainty.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Overnight the northern and southern streams aloft will phase and
move across the area. This will continue to provide forcing, along
with the surface front across the area. The result will be continued
high PoPs, especially during the first half of the night.

Higher precipitable water values will be across the area as well,
and the SREF is showing the possibility of locally heavy rain, again
especially southeast. Will mention the threat in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook.

PoPs will diminish overnight as forcing moves off to the east. On
Friday the upper trough axis will be across the area, and another
front will move through. Will keep some low PoPs across the eastern
forecast area during the first half of the area.

Another upper trough and surface low will bring more rain chances
Saturday and Saturday night. Best forcing looks to be north so
will go with likely PoPs there with chance elsewhere.

The model blend looks reasonable for temperatures.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Ensembles indicate that the upper trough that is expected to
affect the area at the tail end of the short term will be passing
off into the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday. In its wake, fairly
zonal of weak ridging is expected to develop over the eastern
parts of the country by the middle of next week.

Majority of ensembles are continuing to indicate a frontal system
developing nearby early next week, although there are still
differences with respect to the exact location of the front on any
given day, and of any surface waves that may ripple along the
front. This lends to a lower than normal confidence level in the
temperature forecast.

Will continue to broadbrush PoPs from Sunday night through next


.AVIATION /Discussion for 250600z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1136 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

The SREF and GFS LAMP support prolonged MVFR and worse flying
conditions through the TAF period. Meanwhile, High Resolution Rapid
Refresh and radar support at least VCSH through 00z Friday. Would
not rule out lightning at times, but chances too low to mention.

Winds will be light and variable.




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