Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 170258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Updated for evening discussion.


Convective precipitation is slowly winding down over east
central/southeast MS this evening. Have adjusted rain chances and
overnight weather elements to reflect latest trends and expect
mostly quiet conditions overnight per recent HRRR guidance. /EC/

Prior discussion below:

Through Monday:

Tonight we will again see a substantial decrease in convection
with waning instability. There will be a mix of mid/high blow-off
clouds and developing low clouds closer to daybreak. The shortwave
mid/ upper trough that has been instigating convection to our
west over the past few days will move toward the Mid South
tomorrow, providing better chances for rain across much of the
area. Though there will be some synoptic support for development,
it is most likely that coverage will still be mostly diurnally
driven, with the highest rain chances during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday through Sunday;

Overall, no major changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Main
adjustments were to tweak timing and confidence of precip chances
throughout the week with the latest trends in guidance. A couple
of shortwave troughs being carried along in the westerly flow
aloft will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms across
our forecast area throughout the week. Primarily driven by daytime
heating, abundant instability will allow for some robust storms to
develop at times. Deep layer wind shear will be mostly on the
weaker side throughout the week, but a shortwave moving over the
region Wednesday night into Thursday may help to instigate a more
organized system and steer some stronger (possibly severe)
thunderstorms into our forecast area. For now however, confidence
in the finer details is too low to include any mention of severe
weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

In the wake of this shortwave, increased mid-level ridging
downstream of a deepening western CONUS trough will favor
increasing potential for heat across our forecast area Friday into
the weekend. Warm, humid air should continue to circulate into the
region on the western periphery of the Bermuda High, while flow
aloft becomes more southwesterly in the amplifying upper-air
pattern. Heat index values falling out of the temperature and
dewpoint forecast, suggest an increased chance for 100+ (possibly
near 105 degree) heat index across parts of the area by Friday or
Saturday afternoon. Given there may still be some afternoon
convection around the region, will hold off on mentioning in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but a Limited threat for
dangerous heat may be outlined in further outlooks if the forecast
pattern plays out. /NF/


00Z TAF discussion:
The synoptic pattern with southerly low level flow around the
periphery of an anticyclone is relatively unchanged and will there
follow a forecast close to persistence regarding potential for
early morning stratus formation. Otherwise, expect SHRA/TSRA
activity to wane this evening and then peak again tomorrow
afternoon as the remnants of another convective system approaching
from the west interact with a hot and humid airmass. /EC/


Jackson       69  90  72  88 /  23  67  38  60
Meridian      71  92  72  89 /  71  51  34  61
Vicksburg     68  89  73  88 /  15  72  39  58
Hattiesburg   70  90  72  89 /  58  61  26  64
Natchez       68  88  71  87 /  14  71  29  62
Greenville    69  87  72  87 /  28  72  60  52
Greenwood     69  88  72  86 /  25  66  58  58




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