Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 210909
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
409 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today through tonight...very nice weather for outdoor
activities is expected today. Surface high pressure will shift east
of the ArkLaMiss region while mid/upper level heights begin to rise,
and the result will be warmer temperatures under the late April sun
and as surface winds become more southerly. Clear skies tonight will
allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 40s over eastern MS.
/EC/

Monday into next weekend...

Admirable weather conditions will exist to begin the work week
with temperatures returning to near to slightly above their
seasonal averages with no rain chances. Highs will range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday through Wednesday with lows
falling into the 50s and 60s. Moisture values will begin to
increase as we get closer to mid week as the upper ridge over the
SE dampens and the surface high moves east of the ArkLaMiss,
resulting in return flow from the Gulf. However, noteworthy rain
and storm chances will hold off until late Wednesday into Thursday
as the next storm system approaches the region from the west.

Latest 00Z global model runs have come into slightly better
agreement with the next system, with the GFS and Canadian now
leaning towards the Euro`s more consistent solution of an upper
closed low forming over the Southern Plains and eventually making
it`s way across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and impacting
our region late Wednesday into early Friday. Unfortunately, this
more dynamic solution supports an increased risk for severe
weather somewhere along northwestern to northcentral Gulf Coast
region. Although temporal consensus among the GFS and Euro is good
considering we`re this far out, the possible wavering in timing
solutions leading up to this event makes it difficult to project
where the best threat of severe weather will develop at this
point. However, the current solutions would keep the best severe
threat to the west of our region due to the weakening of the
upper system as it progresses eastward towards the ArkLaMiss and
beyond. There are also several other detractors to the severe
threat in our region such as unimpressive shear values. There is
still more confidence in this system providing widespread heavy
rainfall that could lead to expounded flooding concerns than the
severe threat at this point. The focus of subsequent forecasts
will remain on this time period. Models are also in agreement of
upper ridging building over the the eastern half of the US in the
wake of this system, providing a return to quieter weather by next
weekend.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions and mostly light wind will prevail through the
forecast period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  50  80  54 /   0   0   1   2
Meridian      79  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   2
Vicksburg     76  52  79  56 /   0   0   1   2
Hattiesburg   78  47  82  52 /   0   0   1   2
Natchez       77  51  80  56 /   0   0   1   2
Greenville    77  55  78  58 /   0   0   1   3
Greenwood     76  53  80  57 /   0   0   1   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3/EC


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