Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 090902
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...

The region remains under the influence of upper ridging to the
west and some troughing to the east. Moisture will continue to
return to the region, which will make conditions muggy once again.
Thanks to the ridging influence, temperatures today will once
again warm into the mid to upper 90s, similar to yesterday. With
increased moisture, heat indices will be around 100 to 105 degrees
for most locations. In the west, heat indices will have the best
chance for being close to 105 degrees, if not slightly above. Will
continue with a limited heat risk for today. Rain chances will
increase from the south and east today with what should be more
coverage this afternoon. Any storms will diminish with the loss
of daytime heating and another quiet, but warm, night is expected.
/28/

Monday through Saturday:

Model guidance remains in fairly decent agreement regarding the
synoptic pattern for the week ahead, so no major changes were
needed to the current forecast. Ridges of high pressure anchored
over the Desert Southwest and off the U.S. East Coast will keep
warm temperatures locked in across the South. A weakness between
the ridges should be centered generally overhead of our forecast
area and surrounding region, allowing for typical summertime
diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity most days. A few
shortwave troughs moving eastward in the flow aloft may help to
organize some of the thunderstorm activity, but at this time
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected any particular
afternoon. The driest day looks to be Monday as a shortwave ridge
slips overhead during the afternoon hours, but then PWAT values
should return to the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range for the rest of the
week, keeping likely POPs for parts of the forecast area most
afternoons. Possible heat stress conditions will also continue as
maximum heat index values of 105 are expected, especially where
the day`s showers and thunderstorms are slower to develop. Best
chances the 105+ heat index values will be in the ArkLaMiss Delta
region through Tuesday, and then increasing rain chances make the
prospect for dangerous heat more spotty for the rest of the week.
/NF/

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. Some afternoon
storms may occur once again but confidence in affecting a TAF site
is low. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  74  95  75 /  18   2  15   6
Meridian      96  75  96  75 /  20   3  27   9
Vicksburg     96  76  97  76 /  15   1  14   6
Hattiesburg   95  74  94  75 /  28   3  39   9
Natchez       94  74  94  74 /  19   2  20   6
Greenville    96  74  96  75 /  11   1  14   6
Greenwood     96  75  96  75 /  11   1  14   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

06/28


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