Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 260941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
241 AM PDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...In the wake of a cold front, an upper level low
pressure system will bring cooler temperatures along with
scattered showers and thunderstorms to northern and central
Nevada today and Sunday. Scattered rain chances will linger on
Labor Day mainly in Elko and White Pine counties before drier and
warmer weather briefly returns to the region on Tuesday into most
of Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday Evening.
Surface cold front will gradually work its way through eastern
Nevada this morning and afternoon while elongated upper low with
primary center and main shortwave energy swings through the far
southern part of the state around Las Vegas on its way
northeastward into Utah. Both GFS and NAM show decent instability
(MU CAPE values of 500 to locally over 1000 J/Kg) in the vicinity
of the surface front for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
form later this morning and afternoon. Shear values are low so
organized multicell or supercell storms are not expected, though
stronger cells will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours,
strong gusty winds, dangerous cloud-to- ground lighting, and
perhaps some small hail. Scattered showers and storms will
gradually diminish by mid to late evening with the loss of daytime

By early Sunday morning, the upper low will be over northwest
Utah in the vicinity of Salt Lake City with spokes of vorticity
rotating around the center. NAM shows less in the way of
instability on the backside of the low while GFS indicates enough
to keep at least an isolated thunder threat going. Also,
conditions may favor the formation of a few cold air funnel clouds
again especially in the vicinity of convergence bands enhanced by
shortwave energy circulating around the low.

Afternoon temperatures today and Sunday will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than yesterday with highs the next couple of days
mainly in the 60s, though some 70s will still occur this afternoon
over eastern portions of Elko, White Pine and Nye counties. Lows
Saturday night will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Saturday. Showers and
afternoon thunderstorms will linger through Monday across eastern
Nevada as 500mb low over the Salt Lake area slowly moves
east. Ridging begins to move into the region Monday night with
dry and warmer conditions for Tuesday. The next Pacific trough
will bring broad southwesterly flow over the state Wednesday.
Models hint at convection developing along the higher terrain of
central Nevada into Elko county Wednesday afternoon. Models show
sufficient mid-level moisture with PWATs of at least 0.50 inches
lasting through late next week. Dry convection could be of a
concern next week across central NV as a dry sub-cloud layer
develops. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to the
upper lower 80s Tue and Wed before cooler conditions move into the
state with a frontal passage Thursday. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 40s.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will expand across the state
late this morning into the afternoon hours as a storm system
moves into the region. Expect MVFR/IFR in the heavier
showers/thunderstorms and gusty winds at all terminals


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and wet thunderstorms will
redevelop later this morning and afternoon as a surface cold front
moves through eastern Nevada followed by another upper level low
pressure system that will produce additional showers and storms
over central and northern Nevada on Sunday. Afternoon temperatures
will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler today and Sunday than what
they were on Friday with nighttime lows ranging from the upper
30s to mid 40s. Winds are expected to remain below critical levels
except in northwestern Nye County (western FZ457) were post
frontal NW/N winds will gust 30 to 40 mph around Tonopah this
Saturday later afternoon and early evening. Min RH values this
afternoon and Sunday will remain above critial levels (generally
30 to 50+ percent) while Max RH values are expected to recover
to, or above 75 precent in all areas tonight.




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