Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

VFR expected to prevail but there is a chance of MVFR cloud bases
to develop early Monday morning, especially at KCDS, due to a cold
front that will move south across all three terminals by tomorrow
afternoon. Winds will become north/northeasterly behind the front
as well. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
vicinity of all three terminals in the afternoon or early evening
near the end of the forecast. Extent of coverage and location of
initial storms remains uncertain to put in body of TAFS attm.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019/

Monday afternoon and evening is looking increasingly likely for
severe weather to affect the region.

An upper level trough will sharpen up during the day on Monday as
the center of an upper level low drops from the Great Basin into
Arizona. A lead short wave will move overhead from Monday afternoon
through Monday evening. Models are producing quite a bit of omega
from this lead shortwave. At the same time, a front will stall out
in the vicinity of bisecting the forecast area. For the most part,
CAMs have moved convective initiation farther to the south because
of the farther southern position of the frontal boundary. Regardless
of where convection develops, there is a good chance for severe
storms. Very steep lapse rates around 8-9 C/km will spread over the
region leading to healthy mixed layer CAPES on the order of 1500-
2000 J/kg. Models do show capping for much of the afternoon but show
it weakening enough by very late in the afternoon to initiate
convection. Low level shear will greatly increase in vicinity of the
frontal boundary. This will increase the potential for tornadoes
before crossing the boundary to the north. However, the primary
threat will be large hail.

The upper low to the west will continue to provide lift through the
day Tuesday but the front is expected to push farther south into
Central Texas. We would expect higher chances of rainfall rather
than thunder on Tuesday being north of the frontal boundary. There
will still be a fair amount of elevated instability on Tuesday and
then decreasing Tuesday night. The upper low will then move overhead
during the day on Wednesday. This may end precipitation Wednesday
evening except for perhaps the southern Rolling Plains. Strong upper
level ridging will build back in for the remainder of the week
allowing for temperatures to quickly rise above seasonal averages.




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