Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KLUB 162345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Light winds are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. The
one main concern with the TAFs regards whether or not there will
be any morning low clouds or fog which might bring in IFR
conditions to KCDS, KLBB, or KPVW. For now put scattered low
clouds in the TAF to suggest the possibility of lower ceilings,
without actually putting IFR in the forcast. Will continue to
monitor guidance trends for this possibility. Lipe


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

The cold front that pushed south though our area overnight continues
slowly moving toward the I20 corridor this afternoon. Intense
convection has initiated along the boundary but will continue
moving farther south. A beautiful late Spring day is unfolding
behind the cold front under a mix of sun and clouds. High
temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees cooler than normal

Temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow and begin a gradual
warm up through midweek as ridging builds over the region.
Northwest flow aloft will keep us in the cooler airmass until the
ridge axis pivots east and opens up West Texas to southwest flow
aloft and warmer temperatures amid drier air. Guidance has our
area approaching triple digit heat by the end of the week into
next weekend. Dewpoints will mostly remain in the 50s on the
Caprock and 60s in the Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours
through midweek, before the drier air and warmer temperatures
build in.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast as well
through mid-week but the weak forcing and potential for remnant
outflow boundaries will make pinpointing favored areas for
convection a daily exercise until Thursday. Models have been
consistent with a convective complex delivering a glancing blow
Monday night into early Tuesday, especially in the form of an
enhanced outflow/cold front from the main core farther north and




99/99/04 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.