Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 192315 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...VFR conditions prevail through the period. Sparse
showers with the potential for strong gusty winds will mostly
affect the southern portion of the area through the evening hours.
Dry conditions otherwise prevail. Northwesterly winds 5 to 10
knots tonight increase to around 15 knots on Saturday. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Upper level trof axis was
aligned over the TN River Valley today. East of the upper trof, deep
frontal wave of low pressure (~998 mb) was positioned over the
southern Appalachians with extensive comma-head wrap around clouds
rotating southeastward over the central Gulf coast. Radar also shows
a southeastward motion of isolated to scattered showers. With the
upper level cold core system atop the area, steep mid level lapse
rates lends support for some potential of isolated thunder the
remainder of the afternoon, especially where we see breaks in the
overcast. The environment also supports small hail making it down to
the surface if decent updrafts do develop given very favorable low
wet bulb zero heights. Something forecasters will be watching thru
the remainder of the afternoon. The risk of severe weather though is
low. Going into tonight, clouds look to hold thru much of the night
along with much cooler temperatures as lows dip into the mid 40s
north of the coast. These numbers are some 7 to 10 degrees below
climatology. A small chance of light showers continue. The upper
level storm system lifts more to the northeast up across the OH
River Valley on Saturday. Clouds move out and sunny skies open up
the weekend with Saturday`s highs ranging from the upper 60s to
lower 70s, also well below seasonal. /10

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Temps will
warm back into the upper 70s to near 80 on Monday as upper ridging
builds over the area. At the sfc, high pressure will dominate,
keeping dry and clear conditions across the area. /13

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...High pressure will move east
of the area by the middle of next week as an upper trough moves
into the plains. This will allow moisture to begin to return to
the area as a southerly flow develops. The upper trough and
associated sfc cold front approach the area late in the period
with rain chances increasing. The GFS is much more progressive
than the ECMWF, which develops an upper low over the southeast and
moves it slowly east. /13

MARINE...Hazards in the near term will continue to be moderate
to strong northwest flow due to the difference in pressure between
the deep wave of frontal low pressure lifting slowly northeast up
into the Appalachians and high pressure over southern TX. Seas
remain elevated. No changes made to small craft advisories. Marine
conditions improve by Sunday and continue into the middle of next
week as high pressure sets up. /10


AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-



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