Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250923
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
423 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...A shortwave trof over the
coast moves to the New England area and phases with another
system advancing across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, yet another
shortwave trof over the central Plains advances to the lower
Mississippi river valley by late tonight. A surface low associated
with the east coast system will be located over North Carolina at
the beginning of the period and lifts off to the north during the
day, maintaining a dry northerly surface flow over the forecast
area. As the central Plains system advances toward the region,
another surface low develops near eastern Arkansas then advances
into northern Mississippi this evening and brings a cold front
into central Mississippi. A brief southerly flow develops over the
forecast area this evening ahead of the approaching front
followed by the front advancing into the western portion of the
forecast area late tonight. Will have dry conditions continuing
over the area through this evening followed by slight chance to
good chance pops after midnight along and west of I-65 for
isolated to scattered showers (with a few embedded storms
possible) along the front. Instability will be weak and no strong
or severe storms are expected. /29

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Well defined
southern stream mid level impulse aligned over the Lower MS River
Valley daybreak Thursday pivots quickly east and northeastward up
across the southern Appalachians by evening. This feature brings
a compact area of mid level height falls eastward over the Mid-
South resulting in an eastward moving frontal wave of low pressure
over the same areas, extending south and west from the low,
attendant front approaches from the west. Out ahead of the front,
instability remains weak on Thursday in the latest 25.00Z weather
models with MU Capes less than 500 J/KG. Also the latest
probabilities in the short range ensemble assessment on
instability (MU Cape >500 J/KG) are small => (10 to 20%). Even so,
the strength of the energy aloft supports a mention of storms.
Could be some small hail in any of the storms that achieve a
deeper updraft over the interior. The risk of severe weather is
minimal. Due to the quick eastward motion of Thursday`s system,
highest rain amounts look to add up to around a quarter inch or
less.

On the heels of Thursday`s upper system, another fast moving
shortwave upper impulse exits the southern plains late Thursday
night into Friday morning, and swings east over the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night. This system will bring a small
chance of showers through the area on Friday, followed by dry
conditions Friday night. Daily highs and lows look to remain
mostly below seasonal normal.

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The upper level trof over
the eastern conus Saturday will lift off into the western
Atlantic early next week, followed by a medium amplified upper
level ridge building in from the west. The upper ridge is
maintained from the Gulf, northward up across the Appalachians
Monday and Tuesday. Surface high pressure builds in from the west
over the weekend and strengthens over the Mid-Atlantic and
southeast into the start of next week. Rain-free Saturday through
Monday. A southeasterly low level return flow will set up across
the region late Monday night through Tuesday as the center of the
surface highs moves over the western Atlantic. This should bring a
low end chance of light showers back into the western portions of
the forecast area by Tuesday. With the high more to the east late
in the medium range, temperatures begin to modify to closer to or
slightly above seasonal. /10

&&

.MARINE...Light to moderate northwest winds become west to southwest
today followed by a moderate to occasionally strong westerly flow on
Thursday.  A cold front meanwhile approaches from the west and moves
through the marine area Thursday night with a northerly flow
prevailing in the wake of the front through much of the
weekend. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  58  75  53  74  52  77  55 /   0  10  60  10  20   0   0   0
Pensacola   79  64  76  56  74  56  77  59 /   0   0  30  10  20  10   0   0
Destin      77  64  73  59  73  58  75  61 /   0   0  30  10  20  10   0   0
Evergreen   79  58  75  52  74  51  78  51 /   0  10  60  10  20  10   0   0
Waynesboro  79  56  72  51  72  49  77  51 /   0  40  70  10  20  10   0   0
Camden      77  58  72  52  72  50  76  51 /   0  30  70  10  20  10   0   0
Crestview   81  57  77  53  76  52  78  52 /   0   0  40  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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