Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 200351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1051 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

A surface ridge that was centered across southern Minnesota this
afternoon will continue to move southeast overnight. This will
allow winds to shift to the southwest/south and usher in the
warmest temperatures since last Fall. 70s and a few 80s are
likely, with the highest readings along the Buffalo Ridge in west
central Minnesota.

Although wind speeds will not be as breezy as earlier thought,
full isolation and good mixing in the boundary layer will mean
humidity levels dropping into the 20s/30s during the afternoon.
This will also lead to holding off on measurable precipitation
until late Saturday night. This is based on the initial very dry
boundary layer, and if anything develops, most of the
precipitation will be in the form of a few sprinkles, light
showers, or possibly a rumble of thunder as elevated instability

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Fairly notable changes have been made to precipitation chances on
Sunday and Monday.

At the start of the long term period we are forecast to be
sandwiched between a closed low over the eastern seaboard and an
amplifying trough over the western CONUS. Meanwhile, a cold front
is progged to be bisecting the area. The main reason for the shift
in the forecast for Sunday-Monday is due to model trends which
indicate the stalling of this boundary as the aforementioned
eastern CONUS low takes its time progressing eastward.

Therefore, the primary change to the forecast was to increase
precip chances for Sunday & Monday, and also increase QPF. Given
the large spread in the solutions, decided to stick close to the
mean in the ensemble plumes, which ranged from 0.30 to 0.50 inches
amongst the GFS/SREF/GEFS members. The GFS indicated nearly 1.5
inches for KMSP, but at this point it`s been ruled an outlier.
Will need to keep an eye on it however, given PWATS look to surge
to 1.25 inches and deterministic models are trending wetter.
Computed CAPES also look sufficient to warrant the mention of
thunderstorms, although shear & instability look too low to merit
any concern for severe weather. Included the highest pops (60
percent) on Sunday night & Monday when mid-level shortwave energy
comes into play and rides over the surface boundary.

Temperatures on Sunday look to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s
ahead of the boundary. At this point have stayed conservative with
forecast highs given the bust-potential with the anticipated
showers and clouds.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Solid VFR conditions throughout this TAF set. Only occasional
passing FEW high clouds, otherwise SKC. Light winds overnight to
pick up from the south 5-10kt tomorrow.

KMSP...No significant weather concerns.

Sun...VFR. MVFR Possible. Chc -SHRA/TS. Wind E-NE 10-15 kts.
Mon...MVFR, IFR Possible. SHRA/TS. Wind NE 15-20G25 kts.
Tue...MVFR, IFR Possible. SHRA. Wind NE 15-20G25 kts.




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