Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 171003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
403 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...The mid level circulation is currently over southern
Idaho this morning. This disturbance will drift northward
throughout the day and into tonight. The latest model runs
continue to show a significant amount of precipitation south of
I-90 corridor, especially over the Idaho and Clearwater counties.
Multiple winter weather advisories have been issued for this
disturbance. The change in previous runs is that a portion of the
circulation will drift farther to the north, potentially bringing
a decent amount of snow to the Continental Divide. Marias pass
could potentially get up to 4 inches of new snow, while Essex and
West Glacier should only expect an inch or two.

The disturbance moves out of the area by Sunday morning, but the
region should anticipated scattered showers as the broad trough
remains over the western United States.

Typical early spring weather will be felt Monday into Tuesday
with lingering showers. Showers will be most prevalent across the
terrain of Northwest Montana where several inches of snow will be
possible. A brief period of high pressure is expected mid-week as
temperatures return to seasonable levels. This will be quickly
followed by yet another extended cool and unsettled weather
pattern beginning Thursday lasting well into next weekend.
Forecast models generally indicate showers increasing on Thursday
with snow levels above 5000 feet, followed by a cold front on
Friday dropping snow levels to valleys floors. Showery conditions
will prevail behind the front.


.AVIATION...A mid level circulations will be moving northward
throughout the day and into tonight. Snow should move into KSMN
around 17/16z causing lowered ceilings and visibility. KBTM will
have a few showers near the vicinity of the terminal after 17/16z,
but the main band of precipitation appears to impact the airport
around 17/18z. The shower activity moves over KMSO after 17/19z.
Finally KGPI appears to have the least amount of impact from the
circulation, but showers should be near the terminal after 18/02z.


MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT
     Sunday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT
     Sunday Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT
     Sunday ABOVE 3000 FEET for the Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon
     River Region...Northern Clearwater Mountains...
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Sunday ABOVE 3000 FEET for the Southern Clearwater

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday Eastern Lemhi
     County...Western Lemhi County.


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