Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 271725
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1225 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Quiet weather continued through the night, after an unusually hot
May afternoon.  Saturday`s record breaking temperatures around 100
degrees fell into the upper 60s and lower 70s overnight. A prominent
500mb ridge maintained its hold over the central CONUS, allowing for
dry conditions across the region.

Temperature records will be threatened once again today.  The upper
level ridge will continue to build over the nation`s midsection.
Given decent mixing, expect afternoon highs to warm into the upper
90s, likely breaking current records in the low to mid 90s at Omaha,
Lincoln, and Norfolk. Dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s,
keeping heat indicies contained to 100 degrees or less. Winds could
gust up to 20-30 mph in northeast Nebraska Sunday morning, but
otherwise, dry conditions should prevail through the day.

The ridge of high pressure at 500mb will begin to break down Monday
as an upper low over Utah finally shifts northeast into Wyoming and
eventually Montana. With slightly more cloud cover across the
forecast area, temperatures won`t climb quite as high as Sunday, but
are expected to reach the lower 90s.  This will be just shy of
current record high temps for May 28th, which are in the upper 90s
at our three climate sites. The spell of dry weather will come to an
end Monday night as showers and thunderstorms creep into eastern
Nebraska, in conjunction with the northeastward drifting upper low.
A few of these storms could be strong to severe in far northeast
Nebraska, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The coming week appears to be slightly more active. As the upper
low shifts into the Dakotas, a weak cold front will meander
through the region at the surface. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm
Alberto will move inland and phase into the synoptic pattern over
the CONUS. This will result in a few rounds of showers and storms
across the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday. We dry out by
Friday again as an upper ridge builds into the region. But, this
is quickly broken down by a passing cold front associated with an
area of low pressure moving from Montana into western Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst pd.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

New record temperatures were set at all three primary climate
sites today, breaking records which date back to 1912 at Omaha and
Lincoln, and 1914 at Norfolk. Omaha also hit 100 degrees today.

                    OMAHA     LINCOLN    NORFOLK
                  ================================
New Records for
Saturday, May 26   100/2018  100/2018    97/2018
Previous Records    96/1912   98/1912    95/1914

Records for Sunday and Monday

  Sunday, May 27   94/2012*   95/1966*   93/2006*
  Monday, May 28   97/1895    98/1895   100/1974

* Record should be broken based on the upcoming forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEE
CLIMATE...DeWald



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