Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 170830
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

The two main concerns in the short term are thunderstorm potential
and heat indices. The greatest thunderstorm potential is this
afternoon and evening, mainly over southeast Missouri and
southwest Kentucky. Heat indices will become more of an issue with
time.

As far as the ongoing weather, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms continued over west KY as of 08z. This activity was
occurring along a well-defined 850 mb trough. Expect a very
slow southeast movement, with the activity finally exiting the
Pennyrile area of west KY by late morning.

The models indicate southwest surface winds this afternoon will
bring even higher dew points. Most of the guidance indicates dew
points will rise into the upper 70s at times later today. The low
clouds will be slow to break up this morning, but it appears most
areas will see considerable sunshine by early afternoon. The solar
heating combined with increasing dew points will raise surface
based capes well above 3500 in se Missouri this afternoon. The 00z
href qpf depicts a convective complex over se Missouri by late
this afternoon, immediately ahead of the center of an upper level
high. Corfidi vectors and href qpf guidance suggest this complex
will slowly track east-southeast across parts of western Kentucky
this evening. Very heavy rain appears to be the primary hazard,
given tropical moisture and slow storm motion. However, the very
high capes over southeast Missouri support the potential for a few
pulsy wind/hail events as well.

Activity will tend to diminish tonight with loss of heating,
however the href qpf guidance indicates weakening convection
could linger over the Pennyrile region even into early Thursday.
Thursday will be mainly dry as a pronounced upper-level ridge
moves overhead.

Heat indices will be a concern today, but moreso on Thursday.
Heat index values are forecast to reach 105 in much of se Missouri
today, but the duration will be brief due to the expected
formation of thunderstorms this afternoon. Elsewhere, heat indices
could touch 100 this afternoon. The marginal heat hazard today
seems best handled with an SPS. The more significant and
prolonged heat will begin Thursday. See the long term discussion
below for more details on that.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

A strong upper level ridge is still forecast to be over the area
through Saturday, resulting dry, hot and very humid daytime weather,
with dry, warm muggy conditions at night. Most of Sunday may be dry
as well, though some convection cannot be ruled out entirely as the
ridge starts to break down. Excessive Heat Watch will continue
through Sunday with forecast maximum heat index values reaching 105F
many areas, to possibly 110F in a few spots. As the high retrogrades
west late Sunday through Tuesday of next week, a front should push
through sometime in the late Sunday night through Monday night time
frame. Timing will depend on how fast the ridge breaks down. We have
a chance of convection for Sunday night through Monday night. As the
NW flow aloft becomes more prominent, Tuesday should be dry and more
pleasant as drier air spreads across the area. We generally followed
a blend of the last two deterministic EC and CMC runs as well as
their ensemble mean solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Widespread mvfr cigs with local ifr conditions early this morning
will burn off by midday. VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon, however there is a risk of thunderstorms later in the
afternoon. For now, the activity is expected to stay south of the
taf sites. Winds will be southwest 5 to 10 kt.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MY


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