Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 150058
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
158 PM SST Mon Jul 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries show fair weather conditions across
the islands as a mid-level high pressure system lingers over the
area. This synoptic feature is also holding an active trough to
the north and another active trough to the south of the islands.
Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (15/00Z) shows a
stable atmospheric profile with an inversion at the 800mb level,
further confirming the fair weather conditions across the
territory. Model data shows the high pressure system remaining
through at least Thursday before exiting to the southeast on
Friday. Once this scenario comes into play, model solutions is
showing another high pressure system to the west-southwest, moving
south of the region. The latter high pressure system will
continue to hold gentle to moderate easterlies through the
beginning of the new week. Model solutions is also showing a low
pressure system embedded within a trough to the south, migrating
south-southeast of the islands on Monday.

Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers with gentle to
moderate east-southeast winds through at least Sunday night. Winds
will turn northeast to north and showers will likely increase to
numerous by late Sunday into Monday. However, uncertainty in
model performance is much higher after 3 days, and thus, will
continue to monitor and make changes as more data becomes
available.

&&

.Marine...
Observations from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u show a downward
trend in seas and surfs within the last 24 hours. This trend will
likely continue through the midweek, and finally easing off to
more favorable conditions thereafter. Model data, however, show
fresh east-southeasterlies moving over the area on Wednesday,
making ocean conditions choppy. With the fresh breeze, small
crafts and mariners may experience rough seas in the open waters.
Winds will decrease to a more gentle to moderate breeze, and seas
will subside to 5 to 7 feet for the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory cancelled
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen