Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1149 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Similar meteorological conditions are expected to continue over
southern Colorado during the next 24 hours as compared to the
previous 24 hours as upper ridging continues to build into southern

Southern Colorado currently graced by mostly clear skies as well as
dry conditions and relatively low-grade winds in combination with
below seasonal early morning temperatures.

Another dry morning should be followed by isolated high-based
afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms with forecast model
soundings again depicting Inverted V Soundings, which will be
capable of producing localized wind gusts in excess of 40 knots at

Again, any storms that develop this afternoon and evening are
expected to contain limited to nil precipitation amounts.  Dry
conditions should then be noted across southern Colorado from
later this evening into Tuesday morning.

Real-time data, forecast model soundings and computer simulations
continue to indicate that increasing maximum temperatures will be
realized today with most locations noting an maximum temperature
increase of 4F to 10F when compared to yesterday, with several
eastern locations climbing in the 90s this afternoon.

Finally,(outside of the Central Mountains, where minimum
temperatures tonight should be similar to values noted this
morning), project that minimum temperatures tonight should generally
should run some 3F to 7F higher than minimum temperatures this
morning over the majority of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...Summer weather pattern has arrived...

Wednesday through Friday...An upper closed low pressure center just
off the Washington coast Wed morning will slowly move onshore
through Fri. The associated low trough will be located over the
West Coast, creating deep southwest flow aloft across the Four
Corners and Colorado. The upper pattern is expected to remain
somewhat stagnant through Fri, so each day is expected to be hot
and mainly dry, with a daily chance of aftn and eve thunderstorms
over the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Given the very dry
pattern, the main threat from any thunderstorms that develop will
be strong gusty winds as well as lightning. Plan on high temps in
the 80s across the high valleys each day, and the mid 80s to near
100F for the plains. One more thing to note about the period will
be that the region will be flirting with near critical fire
weather conditions each day.

Saturday through Monday...The upper low finally will move off to the
east and into Canada, relaxing the deep southwest flow aloft across
the Four Corners region. Models indicate that more moisture will be
drawn up into the state over the weekend, increasing storm chances
and perhaps helping to cap the high temps slightly. Convection will
still be tied to the higher terrain, but there will be a greater
probability of storms each aftn and eve through Monday. Expect
maximum temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys,
and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

VFR and dry conditions are likely at the three TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, KPUB) over the next 24 hours. Isolated high-based showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the high terrain this
afternoon, with an isolated shower possible near KCOS as well.
This activity could cause brief gusty and erratic winds at KCOS
and KPUB.




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