Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270523
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 620 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Quiet Weather Tonight and Friday...

Currently, winds out of the north are slowly decreasing across the
plains from northwest to southeast as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes with the exit of the mid-level shortwave. However, winds are
still gusting to 35-40 mph at KPUB and 25-30 mph at KCOS. With
decreasing wind speeds, blowing dust off of the 117 and Badger Hole
burn scars has subsided. Temperatures span the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the plains and high valleys, and the region is dry.

Tonight, behind the shortwave exiting to the southeast, a ridge will
build over Colorado. The ridging trend will lead to tranquil
weather conditions, including light winds, mainly clear skies, and
no precipitation. Overnight temperatures will dip into the
low/mid 30s across the plains and mid 20s in the San Luis Valley.

Friday, the mid/upper level ridge will continue to establish itself
over the state, leading to continued quiet weather. Winds will only
increase slightly out of the southeast, into the 10-15 mph range,
across the plains during the afternoon. Skies will remain mostly
clear and no precipitation is expected across the plains. In the
mountains, primarily southwest, weak instability will allow for a
few late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms to develop, with
lightning being the main threat. Temperatures will be warmer than
they were today, with highs reaching the low to mid 70s across the
plains and high valleys. Line

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 620 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A myriad of meteorological concerns during the longer term
includes pops/qpf/higher terrain snow amounts, temperatures,
winds, thunderstorms and elevated fire weather potential at times.

Latest longer term computer simulations, PV/Precipitable water
analysis and forecast model soundings indicate that the generally
benign and mild to warm conditions into Saturday morning will
transition to a more active meteorological pattern from later
Saturday into next week.

Saturday afternoon into Saturday night should experience increased
shower and thunderstorm activity over many locations due to
adequate atmospheric moisture in combination with relatively steep
lapse rates. At this time, parameters are not favorable for
organized strong to severe storms during this time-frame, although
some of the stronger storms may be capable of being intense at
times in addition to producing periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation. In addition, accumulating higher terrain snow is
also anticipated from Saturday into Saturday night.

Then, the potential for stronger to possibly even a severe storm
increases from later Sunday into Sunday night(favoring the far
southeastern Colorado plains). As always, WFO Pueblo will
continue to monitor.

Another concern from Sunday into Monday and to a lesser degree
Tuesday is that the deepening southwesterly upper flow during this
time-frame will help enhance fire weather potential(once again
favoring portions of the San Luis Valley as well as many eastern
locations).

Longer term meteorological focus then shifts to increasing unsettled
and cooler conditions from mid to late next week as closed upper
systems impact the CWA and have started increasing pops/etc.
during this time-frame in recent grids/zone packages.

It still appears that the highest potential for stronger gradient
winds over the forecast district during the longer term should be
realized from later Saturday into Tuesday morning.

Finally, above seasonal later April to early May temperatures are
expected during the longer term into Monday night(with maximum
temperatures challenging and/or exceeding 80F over many eastern
locations from Saturday into Monday). Coolest temperatures during
the longer term are then anticipated Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

With an upper level ridge over the area, VFR conditions are
expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS the next 24 hrs, with winds
generally under 15 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



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