Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

A nw-se sfc front is nearly bisecting the cwfa at 345 am. Just
starting to see a few showers along the front near and to the sw
of Springfield. The front is expected to stall close to the
OK/MO/AR state lines later today and tonight. Isolated
showers/tstms today will increase in coverage by early
tonight/this evening as a subtle shortwave moves from OK into
southern MO. Coverage will be scattered with a few downpours. An
isolated stronger storm isn`t impossible if some stronger
instability can develop, but overall chances are low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Wednesday: Looks to be a continuation from today with an upper
level disturbance and associated sfc wave moving northeast through
southern MO. Better rain chances will favor the southeast half of
the forecast area, basically southeast of I-44. The front is
expected to sag far south late in the day and Wed night with
better chances for precip starting to move south.

Thursday: A slow moving closed upper low now over the Great Basin,
will shift east from the southern Rockies-southern Plains reaching
the Arklatex and southern MS Vly by late in the day Thu. A
northern stream shortwave will also be moving quickly through the
Midwest region. This will help maintain rain chances through the
day and into the early evening before pushing east. The overall
better chances for rain will again be over the southern portion of
the forecast area.

Friday-Saturday-Sunday: In the wake of the exiting shortwaves, a
fast zonal pattern will set up. Sfc high pressure will move
quickly through Friday. Another sfc low and front will pass
through late Saturday/Saturday night with some showers/sct tstms.

Monday: We could be looking at the beginning of a pattern change
with better chances for more substantial rain beginning late
Monday (or just a bit later). Global models are in reasonable
agreement with the chances for a slow moving frontal boundary
stalling over or near the area. Most of the rain holds off until
just after this period as the front moves in on Mon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A front is moving southeast into the area
with lowering ceilings, generally VFR and MVFR. The front will
stall south of the area with continued periods of mvfr/vfr
ceilings possibly lowering into the ifr category late. Periods of
light showers will continue.




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