Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
454 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Clouds are holding on this morning across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. We will see an increase of
additional clouds from southwest to northeast today with our next
storm system developing. A strong and potent upper level storm
system will move out of the mountain areas of the western U.S.
into the Central Plains region later today and tonight. Models
show a shield of rain with embedded thunder developing southwest
of the area and moving in by this evening and through the night.
There will be enough elevated instability for thunder and maybe
isolated pea size hail tonight into Monday morning but severe
weather is not expected.

Low pressure will deepen tonight and Monday across the Central
U.S. and winds will become breezy if not gusty over the area
tonight and Monday. Off and on showers will continue Monday into
Monday night as the storm system moves through the region. Total
rainfall will average between half an inch to up to one inch. Model
indicate that colder air aloft may change some showers into wet
snow flakes mixing in by Tuesday morning as the system exits the
region. Temperatures will be above freezing and the ground will be
too warm to support any accumulations or impacts. But don`t be
surprised if we see some wet flakes Tuesday morning especially
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Cooler weather returns for middle of the week with drier weather
for a couple days. A rebound in temperatures come back by Thursday
into Friday with southerly winds. The next storm will will
approach from the west on a progressive flow in the weather
pattern. Rain chances return for the end of the week with mild


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Pilots can expect changeable weather conditions today into this
evening. A deck of MVFR ceilings is skirting by SGF early this
morning but not impacting JLN or BBG and is expected to remain VFR
through much of today. The MVFR ceilings will clear out to VFR for
SGF by 14z or 15z with VFR for SGF through much of the day. Then
late this afternoon and evening MVFR ceilings will move back in
for all TAF locations followed by IFR ceilings by late evening and
overnight. A shield of rain showers and isolated thunder
convection will move in this evening and throughout the night.
Visibilities will drop between 3sm and 5sm for tonight along with
the ceilings drops to below 1K feet. Winds will be easterly 5 to
10 knots today with gusty easterly winds returning by this evening
and overnight up to 20 knots.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.