Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221649
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1149 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.AVIATION...
Low cigs quickly lifting across the terminals this morning, and
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. MVFR stratus
to return around or just after sunrise, mainly at E TX/N LA
terminals. These cigs should lift near the end of the 18Z TAF pd.
Otherwise, sly winds around 10 kts will decrease in speed to
around 5 kts overnight, and pick up again around 10 kts or less
after sunrise Tuesday. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1109 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/

UPDATE.../Today/
Increasing low level moisture in sly sfc flow has allowed for low
clouds to develop across the wrn half of the area this morning.
Low clouds should eventually mix out, but did make some
adjustments to the sky grids for the update. Otherwise, we should
still see a good warm up despite the clouds. Ongoing fcst max
temps running a degree or two cooler than persistence, which seems
reasonable given the WAA and current airmass in place. Aside from
the tweaks to cloud cover, will not be making any other changes
attm. /12/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/

The flow aloft is transitioning to southwesterly as an upper level
ridge axis begins to move east of the region. This will lead to a
rapid increase in deep layer moisture. In fact, mid and high-
level Pacific moisture is already streaming eastward across much
of Texas. Southerly low-level flow is also advecting low stratus
northward from the Gulf of Mexico across East Texas. The low
clouds should lift and scatter by late this morning, although
scattered mid and high-level clouds will persist for much of the
day. Despite the increase in cloud cover, another warm day is
expected across the entire area as temperatures climb into the low
80s in most locations.

A large upper trough currently over the Desert Southwest will
slowly drift southeast and into Northern Mexico by Tuesday
afternoon. Large scale ascent ahead of this trough should lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday along
a cold front from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. Some of this
activity may affect areas north of Interstate 30 as early as
Tuesday morning. Thunderstorm chances will increase, especially
Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday as the cold front
moves into the area and the upper trough approaches Southwest
Texas.

The overall severe weather threat for our area should be
rather low, but an isolated severe storm capable or producing
damaging winds or marginally severe hail cannot be completely
ruled out ahead of the front.

CN

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

Upper-level ridge across the ArkLaTex to shift east on Wednesday
allowing for southwest flow to increase areawide ahead of an
approaching low across west Texas. Convection to develop along a
weak frontal boundary extending from south Texas to central Arkansas
on Wednesday evening. Cyclogenesis to support a surface low along
the front across southeast Texas which will translate northeast
along the boundary into the ArkLaTex on Wednesday night. Convection
ahead of the surface low to shift northeast into Deep East Texas and
into north Louisiana during the overnight hours on Wednesday.  With
a moist airmass in place ahead of the phased surface and upper low,
instability will be such to generate deep layer convection. Severe
threat, if any, will be limited to the overnight and daybreak hours
on Thursday.

Models hinting at wrap around convection possible behind the upper-
low as it ejects east of the region. Thus included clouds and pops
through much of Thursday. Otherwise, upper-level ridge to bring
clear and dry conditions through the remainder of the forecast
period. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  80  60  79  60 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  81  60  77  61 /   0  10  20  60
TXK  81  61  77  62 /   0  10  10  30
ELD  82  60  79  60 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  83  63  79  62 /   0  10  20  40
GGG  82  62  78  61 /   0  10  10  20
LFK  81  63  79  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/CN/09


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