Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 280854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
354 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday/

Subtropical Storm Alberto is expected to make landfall later today
along the Florida Panhandle. The remnants of Alberto are then
expected to move northward towards the Great Lakes. An upper ridge
continues to build and expand from Northern Mexico northward
across the Central CONUS. Convective coverage will likely be even
more limited than yesterday and should be even lower on Tuesday.
The expansion of the ridge should keep any diurnal convection
limited to our easternmost counties and parishes in Louisiana and
Southern Arkansas. While Alberto is not expected to provide any
increase in rain chances for us, some increased cloud cover is
possible over the eastern half of the CWA.

Otherwise, more hot and dry weather is expected for the vast
majority of the area both today and Tuesday. A general persistence
forecast will be the rule in terms of temperatures, although
daytime highs should warm between 1 and 3 degrees F each day
dependent on localized cloud cover. The hottest temperatures will
be over East Texas where cloud cover will be the lowest and dry
conditions have been ongoing for a longer period of time.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night through Monday/

Upper ridging will gradually begin to expand ENE across the region
Tuesday night, as the remnants of Alberto lifts N near or just E of
the Mid MS Valley. But before it does so, a weak shortwave
traversing atop the ridge over Ern OK will shift E into Cntrl AR
Wednesday, with enough weak forcing to potentially trigger isolated
convection over SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR. Have maintained slight
chance pops for these areas, before the ridge begins to amplify over
the Srn Plains Wednesday afternoon and into much of the region
Wednesday night. Thus, much above normal temps will continue as max
temps climb into the mid 90s over much of the area. A very hot,
humid, and dry forecast will persist through the end of the week, as
the ridge expands farther E into the Lower MS Valley by Thursday.
This upper level pattern, more characteristic of mid and late
summer, will result in afternoon heat indices of 100-105 degrees
from midweek through next weekend, although the ridge may retreat
slightly to the W by Sunday as a shortwave trough digs SE across the
MS Valley into the SE states, which may allow for a weak sfc frontal
system to move S into the area. Deep lyr moisture will remain
limited ahead of this shortwave/attendant front, and thus have kept
the forecast dry for now although low end pops may need to be added
in later forecasts for portions of the area should the moisture
return and overall forcing increases. Did taper max temps back a tad
in wake of the sfc front, but much above normal temps look to
persist for the foreseeable future, especially as the ridging aloft
begins to expand back E across the Lower MS Valley early next week.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1130 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

VFR conditions will prevail this pd, although some patchy fog will
be possible at a few sites around sunrise. A few shwrs/tstms will
be possible during Monday, mainly across srn AR/N Central LA
terminals, but expected coverage remains too isold to mention
attm. Otherwise, light and vrbl winds to prevail overnight tonight
and again after sunset Tuesday, and out of the ne at generally
less than 10 kts during the day Tuesday.



SHV  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  10   0
MLU  91  71  92  71 /  30  20  20   0
DEQ  92  69  93  69 /  10   0  10  10
TXK  92  71  93  72 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  91  69  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
TYR  95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  93  73  96  73 /  10   0   0   0




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