634
FXUS62 KTBW 150026
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
826 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Active radar operations this afternoon into early evening with
numerous severe wx impacts areawide. The atmosphere has been
worked over and is stabilizing but deep tropical moisture remains
over the region and isolated convection is still possible on any
lingering boundaries tonight. This pattern is expected to continue
the next few days as an area of low pressure is expected to move
over N Fl and into the Gulf with several rounds of heavy rain
likely and strong thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Lingering convection to keep VCSH/VCTS at terminals through 02Z
with brief MVFR cigs/vsbys possible as well. Aft 02Z, VFR
conditions expected overnight with light winds and clearing
skies. More rounds of SHRA/TSRA Tue mainly aft 15Z areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An unsettled pattern expected to continue the next couple of a days
as a low pressure system currently off the east coast of FL
traverses west over FL before exiting into the Gulf sometime
tomorrow. Currently the National Hurricane Center has this area
marked with a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone
in the next 48 hours and a low (30%) chance in the next 7 days.
Regardless of development, plenty of rain is expected the next
couple of days.

Though most activity is currently south of I4,
showers and storms will begin to fill in later this afternoon into
the evening. Showers move offshore this evening, allowing for a
break in activity over land. However, showers once again develop
over the peninsula Tuesday morning, beginning more scattered in
nature then transitioning to widespread by the afternoon. Some
areas will receive multiple rounds of rain for the next couple of
days which can lead to localized flooding. Be sure to have
multiple ways to receive weather alerts. Remember to turn around
anytime you come to water over the road.

A more typical FL summertime pattern returns by the end of the week
with scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day. Temperatures at the
beginning of the week will remain in check by rain coverage.
Slightly above average temperatures return by the end of the week
into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate the over the next
couple of days as  a low pressure system moves over FL from the
Atlantic into the NE Gulf. Winds will increase overnight Tuesday and
stay elevated through the end of the week as the low moves
through the Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low as ample moisture leads to
widespread showers and storms through the week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  77  89 /  70  80  70  80
FMY  74  85  75  90 /  80  80  50  80
GIF  74  86  75  91 /  60  80  30  80
SRQ  75  86  75  89 /  70  80  70  80
BKV  72  88  72  91 /  70  80  60  80
SPG  77  85  77  87 /  70  80  70  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery