Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 191244
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
844 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Upper shortwave trough continues in E Central Gulf wrapping
vort max/upper energy over the area this morning along with
surface outflow boundaries to combine and produce showers
and thunderstorms in SW Fl and E Gulf this morning. So,
continue to expect more typical S-SW flow pattern to redevelop
with showers already in E Gulf to move ashore through the
morning hours then push inland through the afternoon. Only minor
adjustments to grids based on radar/satellite trends, otherwise
forecast in good shape.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue over SW FL to keep VCTS
in southern terminals with possible brief/localized MVFR/IFR
conditions. Additional showers/storms expected to redevelop
elsewhere in coastal areas this morning to move inland this
afternoon on SW flow.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Broad cyclonic flow continues across the southeast with a shortwave
moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. This helped
generate a line of showers and thunderstorms that moved over the Gulf
and into the Tampa Bay region. These will continue to sink slowly
southward over the next few hours, though the line is becoming more
broken with time. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis stretches
over south Florida, with a southwest low-level flow remaining in
place. For the rest of today, precipitable water values are forecast
to be around 2 inches, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected. These will generally shift toward inland
areas through the afternoon and evening. Mid/upper ridging then
starts to build over the region on Thursday, although onshore flow
will continue, with scattered rain chances expected. The ridge will
build even more for Friday and into the weekend and early next week,
with some relatively drier air moving in, bringing lower rain
chances. Low-level flow will become lighter as surface high pressure
settles over Florida with the best rain chances forecast to be away
from the immediate coast. Conditions otherwise will be typically warm
and humid.

MARINE...
High pressure south of the area will keep a southwest wind flow in
place across the waters through the next several days. No headlines
are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in or near any
showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  78  90  78 /  50  20  20   0
FMY  90  77  92  76 /  30  10  10   0
GIF  88  75  92  75 /  70  20  20   0
SRQ  89  77  91  77 /  40  20  10   0
BKV  87  74  90  74 /  60  30  20  10
SPG  88  79  90  79 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...25/Davis


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