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000
FXUS65 KVEF 232152
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
252 PM PDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Similar weather is expected for tomorrow with sunny skies and warmer
temps. The weather pattern will change Friday into the holiday weekend
as the next storm system passes across the region bringing gusty winds
and cooler temps to the area. Shower and storm activity will likely
remain across the southern Great Basin as well as the higher elevations
of Clark County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Southwest flow will keep the remainder of today and tomorrow dry
and sunny for most areas as temps continue on their upward trend.
The exception will be across the the southern Sierra where afternoon
showers and storms will be possible. Breezy conditions are expected
across the western Mojave Desert as well as Inyo and Esmeralda counties
Thursday afternoon where gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. The
weather pattern will begin to change Thursday night into Friday as
the next low pressure system approaches the central California coast;
entering the local area Friday night. Winds will pick up on Friday
as a result, reaching speeds of 15 to 25 mph gusting 25 to 35 mph
for most areas. These types of winds could create issues for boaters
on the local lakes so those with plans on the water Friday into this
weekend should keep a close eye on the forecast. Isolated gusts of
around 40 mph will be possible across the western Mojave Desert. The
Sierra will continue to be the focus for any precip Friday afternoon
but chances will increase across Esmeralda County and the rest of northern
Inyo County overnight Friday into early Saturday. Friday will be the
first day of the upcoming cooling trend associated with the next storm
system as afternoon temps drop a few degrees from Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

The aforementioned upper low will continue to track across the Great
Basin Saturday and then stall somewhere along the NV/UT border
Sunday before it ejects to the northeast late Monday. The main
impacts from this system will be gusty winds Saturday. Models are
fairly consistent with the overall track of the low, so there was
little change to the forecast overall. Most areas will see breezy
conditions on Saturday, with the strongest winds favored across the
western Mojave Desert and across Esmeralda County. Northwest breezes
associated with a weak cold front will work southward across the
southern Great Basin Saturday and linger into Sunday. After Sunday,
winds will diminish across the region as cold front washes out an
the low begins to eject.

With the center of the low mainly north of the region, most of the
forcing will occur with vorticity lobes rotating down the backside
and across the base of the low. This puts the best precip chances
over the weekend across the northern portions of the CWA along with
the Sierra. Although moisture will be limited, embedded
thunderstorms will be possible with showers over the weekend. Small
shower chances will linger, mainly across Northern Lincoln, Monday.
Outside of slight chance in the Clark County mountains, areas from
Clark County south will likely remain dry with periods high clouds
over the weekend.

Once the low lifts out of the region, model guidance drops off a
bit. There is agreement on a period of flat to slightly amplified
ridging across the area prior to another Pacific trough dropping
south. This will translate to a period of dry conditions and warmer
than normal temperatures next week. The next trough will begin
influencing the area by next Tuesday brining shower chances to the
south Sierra.

Temperatures on Saturday will fall 8-10 degrees below normal under
the influence of the cold upper low. From Saturday onward, temps
will warm roughly 5 degrees each day bringing the region a few
degrees above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southeast winds will continue through
around sunset with intermittent gusts of 15-20 knots likely. Winds
will shift to the southwest tonight remaining around 10 knots or
less. Diurnal trends are expected for the morning hours on Thursday
before similar gusty, southeast winds initiate during the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Southerly winds will prevail through this evening
before winds come down after sunset and follow diurnal trends
overnight. Breezy, southerly winds are expected again Thursday
afternoon with gusts of 25 knots likely for most areas. Slightly
higher winds are expected across the western Mojave Desert as
well as Esmeralda and Inyo counties where gusts around 30 knots
will be possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Guillet
LONG TERM....Boothe

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