Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 170051
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
550 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions can be expected for much of the
upcoming week. Temperatures will trend downward toward seasonal
normals by mid-week where they will remain through next weekend.
Increase in monsoonal moisture is expected late this weekend into
next week. &&

.UPDATE...Forecast is on track for this evening and
overnight. Winds are still gusting 25 to 35 MPH in southern Clark
County Nevada into Mohave County. Expect winds to start slowly
diminishing in the next few hours, with lighter winds around 10 to
15 MPH overnight. It will be clear and dry through the night and
made no significant changes to the overnight ambient forecast.

The Red Flag Warning Lincoln County will expire at 8PM and will not
be extended. Winds will fall below criteria tonight and should be
less gusty Wednesday afternoon. After speaking with fire weather
partners in Clark County, zone NV464 for the Spring Mountains has
been added to the current Red Flag Warning. Fuels are very near
critical and winds are well above criteria, so potential exists for
any fire starts to rapidly spread down the mountain. Started the Red
Flag Warning at the current time to capture winds up to 40MPH
through the evening, even though there will be a lull in the winds
overnight before increasing again Wednesday.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...244 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2019
.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

A shortwave trough is currently digging into the southern Great
Basin region, which has resulted in widespread breezy to gusty
winds. Gusts so far have been around 30-45 mph this afternoon. These
winds combined with very low humidities and cured fuels, have
created critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern NV
and northwest AZ - where a Red Flag Warning is currently in
effect. Winds are expected to decrease briefly later this evening
before increasing again late Wednesday morning. Strongest winds
will be focused across Mohave and far eastern Clark county
tomorrow where the Red Flag Warning will continue through tomorrow
evening. As the shortwave lifts off to the northeast by Wednesday
evening, winds are expected to quickly decrease from west to east
across the region. Gusty winds this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon may result in hazardous boating conditions with wave
heights of 1-3 feet possible.

Broad troughiness is expected to continue across the northwest CONUS
through the rest of the work week, which will keep temperatures at
bay and create breezy conditions each afternoon. Models have been
more consistent on bringing the ridge of high pressure currently
centered over New Mexico up near the Four Corners as early as
Sunday. This would allow for moisture to be brought into our region.
How deep the moisture will be and how quickly it will spread across
the region is still unclear. As of now, precip chances begin to
spread across portions of Mohave, Clark and southeast CA by
early Monday. &&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Afternoon southwest winds are expected to
become elevated and gusty through the first 9 hours or so of the TAF
period. Winds are expected to peak between 21Z and 00Z this
afternoon with peak gusts around 30 kts. Wind direction variability
should be minimal this afternoon, staying west of 180 degrees
through at least 03Z tonight. Winds are expected to subside to
around 10 kts overnight and tomorrow morning but similar conditions
are expected again tomorrow afternoon as well.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For Las Vegas and Colorado River Valley terminals, the
main issue today will be gusty southwest winds this afternoon. Gust
potential as high as 30 kts will be possible between 21Z and 00Z.
For KBIH, models indicate a shift to southwest winds late this
afternoon which could become slightly gusty but this should be
brief. KDAG winds will remain generally out of the west-southwest
but increasing to 20-25 kts this afternoon.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry, southwest flow is expected through the week.
A shortwave currently digging into the Pacific NW is responsible
for bringing widespread breezy to gusty southwest winds across
much of region today. Gusts so far have been around 30-45 mph this
afternoon. These winds combined with very low humidities and
cured fuels, have created critical fire weather conditions for
much of southern NV and northwest AZ - where a Red Flag Warning is
currently in effect. Winds are expected to decrease briefly later
this evening before increasing again late Wednesday morning with
gusts to 30-40 mph. Strongest winds will be focused across Mohave
and far eastern Clark county tomorrow where the Red Flag Warning
will continue through tomorrow evening. As the shortwave lifts off
to the northeast by Wednesday evening, winds are expected to
quickly decrease from west to east across the region. Otherwise,
breezy, southwest winds and critical RH values continue each
afternoon through the end of the week with gusts generally in the
20 to 25 mph range. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolf
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Kryston
AVIATION...TB3

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