


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
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345 FXUS65 KVEF 162305 CCA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 405 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures decrease throughout the end of the week, followed by a gradual rebound over the weekend. * An increase in monsoonal moisture Thursday through Saturday will result in increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION...through Tuesday. Upper low off the southern California coast will help to draw up some monsoonal moisture over the next couple of days and bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Precipitable water over southwest Arizona has been increasing through the day with the 14Z Yuma sounding showing 1.51" of PW with the latest 18Z Yuma sounding showing 1.71". Early this afternoon, the 1.00" PW line looks to be situated near Searchlight and will continue to advect north overnight with much of the southern half of the CWA seeing at least a inch of PW by Thursday morning. Conditions were a little too stable this afternoon to generate anything more than a couple of isolated thunderstorms over Mohave County and some isolated virga showers over southern Nevada. By Thursday, with deep moisture in place combined with much better instability we should be more scattered showers and thunderstorms stretching into southern Nevada and southeast California. Cape values around 500 j/kg along with LIs around -2/-3 should allow for these storms to develop late morning and continue through the afternoon. With PWs being close to 200% of normal, there could some areas of flash flooding. Where conditions are a bit drier, like western San Bernardino, Inyo, and central Nye counties, gusty outflow winds could be more a concern. The deep moisture will peak on Friday as the upper low off the southern California coast lifts north and tracks northeast through the forecast area. Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected over much of the region. Again, we will need to watch for areas of flash flooding along with strong gusty winds. Moisture will start to wane on Saturday as the upper low moves away and a westerly flow sets up over the region. We can still expect to see some isolated storms, but most should be confined to the eastern areas of the CWA. By Sunday, most of the moisture should be east of the area with dry conditions forecast across the CWA. Of course, this time of year that could change quickly. High temperatures in most areas are expected to be near or below normal on Thursday and Friday. Some places, including Las Vegas, may not reach 100 degrees F on Friday ( 49% chance that Las Vegas remains below 100F). Readings will rebound over the weekend and early next week, but only back to near-normal levels. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South to southwest winds with occasional gusts between 15-20kt through much of the afternoon and into this evening. Southwest winds overnight with speeds around 8-10kt. VFR conditions will prevail with haze aloft and operationally insignificant passing clouds around 12K to 15K feet. There is low confidence that a few virga showers will develop this afternoon over portions of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Temperatures will exceed 100F through 04Z. Additional moisture will work into the region Thursday leading to more scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce gusty outflow winds. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South to southwest winds are expected around most of the region through this afternoon and into the evening, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Winds will decrease slightly tonight, but remain elevated. Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening should be limited to Mohave County, but could surge northwest to the KIFP and KEED areas Thursday morning. VFR conditions expected elsewhere. Thunderstorm and gusty wind chances will increase over southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and far southeast California Thursday. Some storms could cause gusty and erratic winds along with areas of blowing dust. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorelow AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter