Flash Flood Guidance
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AWUS01 KWNH 152338
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160530-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0703
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
737 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and Mogollon Rim
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 152336Z - 160530Z
SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoon thunderstorms and isolated flash
flooding through this evening across the southeast Arizona and the
Mogollon Rim of central Arizona into New Mexico.
DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has development over the terrain
of southeast AZ and up along the eastern portions of the Mogollon
Rim. Localized rainfall of 1.5"/hr has been estimated from KEMX
and KFSX. Outflow enhanced convection can be expected through the
evening along with terrain aided development with persistent moist
westerly flow across southern AZ. SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg is
estimated PW of 1.4" advecting in on the westerly flow. Slow
motion is expected to continue with very light steering flow with
outflow propagation and convergence as the main drivers of motion.
Localized flash flooding can be expected along and adjacent from
the main terrain of the region.
Jackson
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 35331105 35030983 33970923 32690868 31280872
31061053 31311168 32131192 32631062 33371044
34091103 34571152