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836
FXUS62 KILM 221844
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
244 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions continue through the remainder of the weekend. A
cold front moving through tonight will bring cooler weather for
Sunday, and a second cold front arriving late Monday could be
accompanied by a few showers. Yet another cold front is expected
by the middle of next week with cooler temperatures by
Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Warm and gusty conditions continue this afternoon with the
focus on fire weather issues... see fire weather section below.
The winds will diminish later this evening and with a back door
cold front...currently located in the Appalachians moving
across a wind shift will be in order. Sunday should see similar
conditions as today regarding temperatures and dewpoints with
lower winds. Still no pops and little cloud cover. Lows tonight
will be in the middle 40s with highs Sunday in the lower to
middle 70s with the coastal areas a bit more prone to cooler sea
breeze circulations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Strengthening low pressure over the Great Lakes region will
push a cold front through the area on Monday. Zonal flow before
the front and a generally broad trough through the southeastern
US will limit moisture advection ahead of the front. While rain
is expected to develop along the cold front, moisture will be
limited and lift will be diffuse. Dry air between the surface
and around 850 mb will further limit rain rates and the
existence of cohesive showers. Patchy light rain should only
produce a few hundreths of an inch through Monday evening.
Clouds and rain will keep temperatures around the mid 70s,
slightly warmer (upper 70s) where peeks of sunshine can sneak in
before clouds arrive.

The axis of a broad trough will reach the Carolinas Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Expect this to maintain some
cloud cover. In addition to cloud cover, weak impulses could
produce a sprinkle or two across the northern tier of the
forecast area. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the
coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Despite some weak cold air advection on Monday night and
Tuesday, westerly downslope flow will keep temperatures in the
low to mid 70s on Tuesday. A dry cold front will move through on
Wednesday, announced only by scattered clouds and a subtle wind
shift.

Cold air advection is delayed until Thursday when temperatures
drop back into the 60s. These slightly below normal temperatures
last only for a brief period as high pressure overhead on
Thursday moves off the coast for Friday, bringing return flow
and temperatures back into the low and mid 70s. A more uncertain
pattern develops next weekend with models hinting at weak
shortwaves progressing across the southern CONUS. Regardless of
rain chances, temperatures are likely to be above normal (normal
for late March is around 70 degrees).
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Gusty winds will be the main concern the next few hours but
overall VFR conditions should prevail through the period. The
pronounced southwest flow of today will give way to lighter wind
fields Sunday and a switch to the northeast more along coastal
areas.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions are expected to continue
Sunday. Another cold front will bring the next chance for
restrictions and rain chances on Monday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Sunday... Winds and seas just on the cusp of small
craft advisory criteria this afternoon and the headline looks
good to go through this evening. For late tonight and Sunday
winds and seas diminish quite a bit as west then eventual north
to northeast flow develops as a dry cold front moves across.
Expect wind speeds to find an eventual floor of 10-15 knots with
seas 2-3 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday... Southerly flow increases
Sunday night into Monday ahead of a cold front. Breezy
conditions on Monday could exceed SCA thresholds, but confidence
remains low as this would likely be limited to gusts in excess
of 25 knots for a few hours. Northwest flow following the cold
front will degrade quickly has high pressure builds across the
region on Tuesday. Brief return flow on Wednesday will precede a
dry cold front moving through the region late Wednesday and
Thursday.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Most areas firmly in Red Flag criteria this afternoon so the
warning will continue through 8 PM. For Sunday, similar
temperatures and dewpoints reside across the area although not
exacting. This along with winds being lighter points to a step
down to a Fire Danger Statement which will not be issued until
the Red Flag Warning expires this evening or with the midnight
shift routine forecast early Sunday morning.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
SC...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/21
FIRE WEATHER...SHK