Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200739 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 339 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous daytime heat will be the main story this weekend into early next week. An approaching cold front is expected to bring cooling and increasing rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. This front will remain just south of the area late next week, maintaining rain chances with seasonable daytime temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Not much change in the pattern today, as broad Bermuda high pressure remains locked in place offshore. Main story will be the heat and humidity. An Excessive Heat Warning continues for all NC zones from midday through late afternoon, due to high temps in the mid/upr 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Stuck with just a Heat Advisory over SC where dewpoints will be a tad lower. Lowered PoPs a bit across the area today (just 20% most areas now) as coverage is expected to be quite limited as it was yesterday due to a lack of forcing. Muggy then for tonight with lows in the mid/upr 70s. May need another round of Heat Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings for Sunday due to a lack of pattern change. Compared to today, dewpoints may be a bit lower but temps may top off a degree or two higher. Carried another slight chance of aftn/evening shras/tstms but nothing widespread expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...No real changes to the short term forecast which is basically Sunday night until Tuesday morning. The mid level ridge will hold on for one more day although height falls are underway and accelerate more toward Tuesday morning. Slight chance pops are in order during the day Monday with increasing values overnight into Tuesday morning as some convection may meander across and or develop from the west. Looks like highs will once again be in the 90s but apparent temperatures fall back a bit to more in line with advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Unsettled conditions in order for the extended at least for the first part of it. A mid level trough and attendant cold front will move across Tuesday and Wednesday. Some guidance still maintains a quasi clean frontal passage with northeast winds area wide at least briefly. Doesn`t matter a whole lot as temperatures will cool with more moisture and lower heights but the change will certainly be more substantial if the front did make a run offshore. Pops trend downward later Thursday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Saturday...VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms again possible this aftn, but not confident enough to put in the TAFs attm. Expect some FEW-SCT 4-5k ft aftn cu. Winds remain out of the S/SW up to 10 kt, aside from some sea breeze SE flow near the coast ~15 kt. Extended Outlook...VFR outside isolated TSTMs and very patchy fog early. Convection to increase to likely category late Tuesday, with a frontal boundary lingering through mid week maintaining elevated rain chances. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM Saturday...Southwesterly flow will prevail this weekend between a trough across the inland Carolinas and Bermuda High pressure far offshore. Speeds will increase diurnally as they are enhanced by aftn sea breezes...up to 15-20 kt. Choppy seas will continue as well in the southwesterly fetch with heights of 3-4 ft common for the duration of the weekend. Southwest winds through a good part of the forecast from Monday on until a cold front, which is gaining more support to make a clean passage, will change the wind direction to northeast. This flow may persist for a couple of days but will generally be light. The southwest flow prior may reach 15-20 knots briefly late Monday night. Significant seas will generally be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS/SHK

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