-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
233
FXUS62 KILM 131006
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
606 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure along with an inland trough will
generally prevail although a front could near mid week bringing
a bit better rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Adjusted the fog coverage in the forecast for this morning but
again looking patchy outside of our traditionally colder spots.
Increased POPs slightly for this afternoon. Updated 12Z aviation
below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another standard summer day with scattered showers on the afternoon
sea breeze, starting at the coast then expanding inland into the
evening. I`m expecting higher coverage than we`ve seen for the past
several days as there should be some aid aloft. The low pressure
offshore to our NE will extend a trough of lower pressure down the
coast just offshore which will get dragged inland this afternoon as
the Piedmont trough inland interacts with it. 2-3k CAPE will develop
inland which could support some isolated stronger pop-up storms but
the threat for damaging wind gusts is low. Heat indices once more
will near Heat Advisory criteria (105F), but with drier air mixing
in from aloft during the day knocking the RH and disruptions from
storms, I doubt criteria will be met for a widespread area or for 2+
hours. Otherwise, moderate confidence on fog, particularly inland,
for tonight so have added it to the forecast. Coverage for this will
likely be expanded on with further forecast updates as I`ve just
gone with patchy for now. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms
*Near normal severe storm risk
*Slightly above normal flash flood risk
*Near to above normal temps

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: No significant weather features expected this period with
weak low prosier to the south, high pressure to the east and a
trough inland. However, by Tuesday a weakening cold front could
approach from the northwest leading to a bit more rain coverage.
Otherwise, generally expect typical afternoon/evening showers and
storms, although could see a bit more than normal Tue morning near
the coast as a weak inverted trough extends northward from the low
to the south. The severe storm risk will be very low given the weak
deep layer shear but that will also help lead to a bit better risk
for flash flooding. Temps will generally be near normal, a bit
cooler Tue compared to Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms
*Near normal severe storm/flash flood risk
*Near to above normal temps

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details: Expect a mainly typical summertime pattern with mostly
afternoon/evening showers/storms due to the subtropical high
centered to the east and a lee-side trough inland. No
significant severe/flash flood risk is anticipated. Temps should
be near to above normal, especially after Wed. Heat indices
look to stay below Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for the
most part until possibly late week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog should burn off by the start of the TAF period. The sea
breeze will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms with restrictions near-MVFR CIGs, MVFR to IFR VSBYs, and
gusty winds. Still thinking we`ll deal with fog tonight so have
added some of it to the TAFs. IFR is possible, but confidence
was too low to include that. Wouldn`t be surprised if VSBYs went
down for tonight though with further TAF updates. Worst
conditions expected inland.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Light winds with only influence being the
afternoon sea breeze which will make them onshore around 5-10 kts
and then light and variable again tonight. Seas generally 2 ft with
swells E 1 ft at 9-10 seconds and SE 2ft at 6-7 seconds.

Monday through Thursday...Weak pressure pattern should prevail,
mainly with Atlantic high pressure the predominate feature. Mostly
southerly winds about 15 kt or less with seas only reaching 3 to 4
toward mid week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW