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000
FXUS62 KILM 152007
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
307 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system pushes off to the northeast tonight. High
pressure then builds in from the northwest early next week,
remaining over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The next storm
system will affect the area Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Slow moving cold front is basically
through the area this afternoon as shown by a wind shift along
with some breaks in the clouds. As the mid level low moves
across Tennessee and opens up later Sunday a couple of surface
troughs will move across the area. The rainfall is essentially
over with guidance showing only a slight chance of showers
across northeast zones this evening. Little if any cold air
advection in the wake of the system so temperatures will only
dip into the upper 40s or so tonight and rise into the lower 60s
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Upr-level low pressure pulls off to the NE
Sunday night into Monday as surface high pressure builds into
the Midwest. The high continues to build eastwards Monday night
as dry NW flow persists aloft. Mostly clear/mostly sunny through
the period with temps close to climatological norms...highs
Monday in the low/mid 60s with lows both nights in the mid 30s
to lwr 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Dry wx to start off the long term period
with dry deep layer NW flow and surface high pressure building
into the Mid Atlantic. High temps in the mid 50s Tuesday. The
high builds down into the Carolinas Tuesday night then starts to
slide offshore Wednesday with the NW flow aloft transitioning
to SWly ahead of the next low pressure system. High temps in the
mid 50s Wednesday. As of the 12Z runs, the GFS is becoming more
in line with the ECMWF showing another potential heavy rain
maker with very wet conditions possible Thursday into Friday
with a greatly amplified upper-level trough...PoPs increased to
60% Thursday/Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 18Z...IFR/LIFR will be likely through mid-late afternoon
with MVFR likely afterwards. Lowest confidence of IFR/LIFR will
be at KILM. VFR will develop this evening and continue through
the overnight hours. There is a chance of IFR at KLBT/KFLO
around sunrise but confidence is moderate. Otherwise VFR after
12Z with west winds, gusty at times at the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...A modest southwest flow of ten knots or so
will slowly turn more to the west this evening and overnight
and increase slowly in magnitude to 15-20 knots. This should
slowly erode the sea fog that has persisted across the waters
today. Will extend the MWS for a while however as the process
will be slow. As for the small craft advisory that is in place
via higher residual seas, the expiration time of 4 AM Sunday
still looks good. Seas will drop to 3-5 feet for the most part
Sunday probably necessitating a SCEC headline.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Winds and seas gradually improve into
Sunday night as low pressure pushes farther offshore. Sub-Small
Craft Advisory conditions then through the middle of next week
as high pressure builds in from the NW. Winds mainly 10-20 kt
through this period with 2-4 ft seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Wilmington`s annual rainfall total stands
at 100.11 inches as of 3 PM. Details are available at
https:/weather.gov/ilm/RaceTo100

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MAS/SHK
CLIMATE...