Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251618 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1215 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary weakens over the area today as high pressure remains off to the northeast. High pressure remains offshore mid to late week with weak waves of low pressure over the Southeast states leading to summer-like weather with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Forecast remains on track this morning with isolated thunderstorms possible mainly along and west of I-95 later today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary directly over the area with high pressure off to the NE. The front will further weaken today, allowing rain chances to be lower than yesterday...mainly just 20-30% over the western half of the area. Enough instability again for TSTMs, but no severe wx expected and just some heavy downpours possible. Cooler temps today with ENE flow...highs only in the lwr 80s most areas. Typical drop off in convection for tonight with low temps in the low/mid 60s. Dry then early Tue with increasing rain chances from S to N especially in the aftn as mid-level shortwave energy pivots in from the S in conjunction with increasing deep layer moisture. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Very unsettled through the period as low pressure of tropical origin moves up the coast. Regardless of the overall thermal structure of the system (it will likely spend most of its lifetime with a good portion of its circulation over land) it should be an efficient rain- producer as forecast soundings show deep layer saturation favorable for warm rain development. Have raised QPF considerably and will start to mention minor flooding possibilities in the HWO. The best window for heavy rain will be ahead of the system during the strongest onshore flow Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Later Wednesday this will be displaced to our north regardless of whether the circulation still persists (per WRF) or washes out (per GFS/EC). The latter idea seems to have much more merit given the low will be overland and have no frontal structure. Both nights will be on the mild side while Wednesday will be a few degrees below climo both due mainly to cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thursday still unsettled as deep layer moisture remains in place though a lack of significant forcing will call for some relatively lighter areal amounts (deep convection where it develops would be slow moving and capable of some higher totals). Low level synoptic lift will gradually come into play late in the week as a cold front approaches. Mid level flow will veer from southerly to westerly however and this should cut down on the deep layer moisture observed in the days prior (though interestingly GFS forecasts soundings do not indicate this yet). && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Predominately MVFR ceilings early, becoming VFR by mid afternoon. Any convection will probably be southwest of the CWA. Tonight, a VFR stratocu ceiling may lower to near IFR by daybreak. Tuesday, predominately VFR with pockets of MVFR. Any convection will probably start after the forecast period. Extended Outlook...VFR Tuesday with a small chance of MVFR cigs. Unsettled weather Wednesday through Saturday with a good chance of rain each day. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions continue for today through daytime Tue with a frontal boundary weakening over the area and sfc high pressure off to the NE. ENE winds consistently 10-15 kt during this timeframe with 2-4 ft seas, which includes a 1 ft 8-9 second ESE swell. Low pressure will develop over Florida and move north across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory appears likely for wind and/or seas. Wind direction initially easterly but the approach of the low will lead to a turn to southeast/south as it takes an inland track. Wind speeds should peak Wednesday morning before the low weakens later Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will bring south to southwest winds on the western fringe of Atlantic high pressure. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS UPDATE...MCK NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 MARINE...MAS/MBB

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