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000
FXUS62 KILM 241348
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area
Sunday. Shower chances diminish next week with above- normal
temperatures and muggy conditions continuing. A complex storm
system will bring good chances of rain late in the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Going forecast for the remainder of the day was in good shape
and little in the way of change was made over land. Over the
waters, seas within 20 NM have fallen below 6 FT so the Small
Craft Advisory has been canceled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure offshore and southerly flow across the region
will bring another day of above normal temperatures in the low to
mid 80s today with plenty of sunshine.  The next round of weather
moves in for Sunday as a cold front approaches bringing cooler
weather closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s and chances for
rain showers and rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon.  Patchy fog is
also a possibility again west of highway 17 and possibly dense at
times along and west of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level flow will transition from a westerly flow in the
wake of a shortwave Sunday to more of a southwest flow by the
end of the period, Tuesday evening. The forecast remains dry
although we should see a similar pattern of convective clouds
develop during the day seemingly capable of showers but limited
just enough by the overall profile. Morning fog is possible as
well. Temperatures will warm once again into the 80s Tuesday
slightly cooler for Monday`s highs. Overnight lows will be in
the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast has taken a hard turn to more unsettled.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico possibly in the form of a
tropical entity will stream across assisted by a shortwave
moving across the Tennessee Valley. Pops have been trended
upward across the board with the highest values Thursday and
Friday when the best forcing and moisture are coupled. Be the
very end of the period the system moves out as it becomes quiet
progressive. Some cooling temperatures behind the system as well
but plenty warm otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Night fog satellite imagery shows pockets of LIFR fog/stratus, mainly
inland. Most of the obscuration will be mixed out by 14Z. Light
gradient will allow onshore flow by late morning. A weak system
approaches from the west tonight.

Extended Outlook...Localized IFR conditions may develop early
Sunday morning from ground fog. A chance for MVFR showers and
isolated tstorms Sunday as a front slowly pushes through before
dissipating. Mainly VFR Mon through Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Long period swell from hurricane Epsilon
continue to impact the coastline from the east between 12 and 14
seconds with waveheights between 4 and 6 feet.  These seas will
create hazardous conditions for inexperienced mariners and smaller
vessels navigating the coastal waters today.  While easterly swell
continues over the next 36 hours, seas decrease heading into Sunday
between 2 and 4 feet.  Winds will vary in direction this weekend,
but stays generally between 5 and 10 kts.  Chances for thunderstorms
with locally higher winds and waves Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the west.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Weakly forced winds and seas
will be in place for most of the period. A synoptic wind from
the northeast will prevail for early next week. As a system
approaches from the west an onshore flow will develop followed
by a better defined southwest flow with the system late in the
work week. Overall wind speeds will be ten knots or so
increasing to the higher end of a 10-15 knot range late.
Significant seas will generally follow the winds and for the
most part a 2-4 ft range will be in place. Higher seas possibly
into small craft criteria may develop late with the higher
winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MCK
MARINE...MCK/SHK