Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241703 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 103 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will continue to build in from the north through today with below normal temperatures expected. The lingering front offshore will move inland on Friday with increased chances of showers or thunderstorms through Saturday. Typical summertime pattern is in store for early next week. && .UPDATE...
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Previous forecast remains on track. Hazardous surf conditions continue at east-facing beaches. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for NE SC and SE NC beaches, and Downtown Wilmington, for minor flooding with this evening`s high tide.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest sfc analysis shows 1028 mb high pressure centered over the Gulf of ME with a stalled frontal boundary positioned well off the Carolina coast. The local area remains under the influence of the high ridging in from the N today, and with dry air throughout the entire column expect no rain with below normal temps...highs in the low/mid 80s. Front offshore starts to nudge towards the coast tonight, and with an increase in moist low-level onshore flow expect scattered showers over coastal areas overnight. Mainly light QPF expected with just a slight chance of thunder as instability is lacking. Better chance of rain arrives daytime Fri as the front moves over land and mid levels finally moisten. PoPs 50-60% across the area, with rain chances quite similar between the morning and aftn. Again, mainly light rain with severe wx not anticipated. Temps higher than today but still a bit below normal...highs near 85. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure from the sfc up through the mid to upper levels shifts farther off the Northeast coast while extending back over the Carolinas Fri night into the weekend. This will produce a fairly deep E-SE onshore flow. Weak troughing along the coast into early Sat should help to fuel some shwrs early in the day, with best moisture and convergence pushing inland by Sat aftn. Therefore expect chc of pcp to diminish along the coast through the day, but remain inland. By late Sat into early Sun, drier air will advect in from the east, perhaps some subsidence ahead of tropical wave farther out in the Atlantic. This should help limit clouds and shwrs for Sunday. A general summertime pattern will exist with temps and dewpoints recovering leaving warmer and more humid conditions. Overall, temps will be back near normal with overnight lows near 70 and daytime highs in the mid 80s on Sat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high pressure will continue to shift farther off shore with Bermuda high taking control leaving a deep E-SE flow from Sun through midweek. In the mid to upper levels the ridge will strengthen with the center just north over the Delmarva Peninsula. Looking to the east this time of year, looks like some drier air and subsidence will advect over the area through Sunday into Mon ahead of a wave. Therefore expect limited clouds and shwrs. By Mon night into Tues, moisture begins to stream back in with increasing chc of shwrs. Looks like a wave like feature will extend up the Southeast coast from Florida Gulf region. This, combined with convergence along sea breeze boundary should help fuel some convection Tues aftn. Flow becomes more southerly into Wed. Overall, expect mainly diurnal convective activity Tues through midweek in a more typical warm and humid summertime airmass. Temps will run right around normal with overnight lows in the low 70s most places and daytime highs between 85 and 90 most places. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Satellite shows the stalled frontal boundary beginning to make a northward push as a warm front which will continue this afternoon and overnight. NE winds maintain 10-15 knots this afternoon with a few isolated gusts up to 20 knots along the immediate coast. Mid- level cloud deck will mark the arrival of the front this evening becoming most evident along the coast and in portions of SE NC. Could see a few isolated showers, but coverage should be isolated enough to exclude from this TAF cycle. Winds veer with the approaching front, becoming ENE or E by early evening. Good chance of low-level stratus tomorrow morning as surface dew points creep-up again into the upper 60s or lower 70s in addition to the 10 knot BL winds. Expect widespread IFR and MVFR, breaking through mid-morning. Humid tomorrow with SCT/BKN cumulus developing into periodic MVFR conditions. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR during the daylight hours with early morning MVFR/IFR chances. Showers and thunderstorms may return Friday through Sunday with periodic (but brief) restrictions.
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&& .MARINE... Through Friday...The pressure gradient and resulting NE flow weakens today as the influence of high pressure from the N diminishes through the day. Tonight an offshore frontal boundary slides towards the coast, with NE winds shifting to the E and diminishing from 15-20 kt to 10-15 kt. SE winds 10-15 kt then for Fri as the front slides onshore. As for wave heights, 3-5 ft seas this morning decrease to 2-4 ft late today through Fri. As a result of the high swell energy from distant storms, rough waves are likely for area beaches, especially the east facing ones. Friday night through Monday... High pressure will shift farther off the Northeast coast sagging slowly south with a summertime Bermuda High pattern setting up by early next week. This will maintain an E-SE flow through most of the weekend into early next week. This persistent onshore push will keep seas in the 3 to 4 ft range dominated by this SE swell around 7 seconds. A weak long period SE swell will mix in over the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21 MARINE...MAS/RGZ

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