Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 062328 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 628 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will dominate the weather through the week ahead with plenty of sunshine each day. Unseasonably cool temperatures to start will reach near normal by Tuesday and continue to warm to above normal through the late week period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Southern stream mid-level s/w trof will move off the SE U.S. Coast this evening, pulling with it the mid and upper level cloudiness. The sfc low associated with this upper s/w trof will accelerate well offshore tonight. The sfc pg across the area will tighten-some, keeping winds somewhat active overnight as cold air is drawn southward across the region. Tonights lows will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. A northern stream mid-level s/w trof is progged to swing off the Mid-Atlantic Coast during the first half of daytime Sun. Few/Sct mid to upper level clouds may accompany its passage during early Sun...otherwise NNW flow aloft, direct from Canada, and a semi-tightened sfc pg Sun aftn and night, will all combine to continue to draw cold air down from Canada. Sun highs will run generally in the mid 50s with a few upper 50s given a good dose of early March insolation. The center of the 1035+ mb high will finally approach from the NW by Mon daybreak. Thus, just enough mixing Sun night should prevail and thus prevent a free-fall dive Mon morning lows. Of the 2 nights, Sun night should still prevail as the colder 1 of the 2, even with no radiational cooling influences. Overall, stayed with the cooler side of guidance, which incidentally runs 10+ degrees below normal during this near term period. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Ridge of high pressure from the sfc up through the upper levels will slowly migrate across the Eastern CONUS Mon into midweek. Diminishing northerly flow will weaken and become more variable as the center of the high settles over the Carolinas into Tues. This will allow air mass to modify with temps still running below normal on Mon, but transitioning to normal by Tues. Mon night will be the first night of temps above freezing all across the area with the exception of isolated traditionally cooler spots. Overall, the dry very air mass will allow for plenty of sunshine and large diurnal swings in temps. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warming will begin in force through the latter part of the week as sfc high shifts off the coast and ridge builds up through the Southeast. A minor perturbation will ride across the area early Wed that may produce a few clouds, before ridge builds in with decent height rises. Should see some fog come into play as the week wears on and dewpoints begin to rise. Warming trend through the week will bring temps into the 70s and perhaps close to 80 by Fri, except at the beaches. The warming land relative to the cooler ocean temps should kick up a decent sea breeze each aftn into early eve, keeping places close to the coast cooler. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR for the area terminals for the next 24 hours. High level cloud cover continues to clear this evening become clear overnight. Winds remain light out of the NNE becoming north overnight through through Sunday evening. Extended Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies Sunday through the end of next week. && .MARINE... Through Sunday night...Sfc low pressure developing within the baroclinic zone over the Bahamas, will accelerate ENE, further away from the US mainland, due to the southern stream s/w trof moving off the SE U.S. Coast this evening. The hier winds and seas will remain offshore, east thru south of the area waters. Will experience a tightening of the sfc pg after the southern stream s/w trof pushes off the SE U.S. Coast. Expect NE winds around 10 kt to back to N at 10 to 20 kt overnight, which should continue thruout much of daytime Sun. This sfc pg will remain tightened thruout Sun due to the passage of the northern stream s/w trof off the Mid-Atlantic States during Sun daytime morning. The center of the sfc high behind the departing upper s/w trof will approach the local waters from the Eastern Carolinas by Mon daybreak. As a result, northerly winds will stay semi-active Sun night. Seas thruout this fcst period will be governed by 3 to 5 second period wind waves, with heights peaking Sun aftn and evening. Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build down and migrate nearly overhead on Tues, moving farther offshore through midweek. Northerly winds on the front end up to 10 to 15 kts will lighten and become more variable as center of high reaches nearly overhead on Tues. Light onshore return flow will develop Wed night into Thurs and will come around to a more southerly direction by Fri. Overall, expect benign marine conditions as winds lighten into mid week with seas below 2 ft Tues and Wed. The persistent onshore flow that develops Wed night into Thurs will produce a slow and steady rise in seas up to 3 to 4 by Fri. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MCK MARINE...DCH/RGZ

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