Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271741 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 141 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Shower chances return this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorm chances peak on tonight and Tuesday with the frontal passage. Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast by mid-week as the front lingers offshore. Next weekend will feature a return to typical afternoon storm chances and warmer temperatures. && .UPDATE... Minor tweaks made to forecast based on latest obs and guidance. Nudged temps down a couple degrees inland where ample cloud cover continues. Scattered weak reflectivity returns currently inland, but very little if any precipitation is making it to the ground. May see a shower or two develop along sea breeze this afternoon, but best chances remain ahead of incoming cold front mid to late afternoon into tonight. Expected instability isn`t great, but with high PW values and storm motions less than 10 kts some lucky spots may get some much needed rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-level ridge axis extending across the FA from the lower Mississippi Valley, will get suppressed south of the area during this period. This in response to troffiness at mid-levels expanding southward from Southeast Canada as successive s/w trofs at 5H, passing north of the FA, aiding this expansion. This will help drive a cold front southeastward, reaching the immediate or just off the ILM CWA NC-SC Coasts by daybreak Tue. The stalling of the front due to it becoming oriented parallel to the flow aloft. The FA will see near normal temps as clouds and convection inland associated with the front, keep temps in line with the latest consensus MOS guidance. Mins tonight likely will remain at or just above climo lows due to cloudiness and pcpn. With the stalling front, may see some training of pcpn later tonight but not enough to warrant any flooding issues being the ongoing dry conditions. The pcpn will be a welcome sight especially to farmers and to counter the increased potential fire hazards. POPs will generally run in the low to mid Chance category later today, lowest at the immediate coast, and possibly climb to the high chance category tonight in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Surface front is expected to be just off the coast at 12Z Tue with NE flow will keep high temps generally in the lower 80s. Time- height cross sections show deep moisture remaining in place behind the front, and this is reflected in precipitable water values, which will hover over 2 inches through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous, especially during afternoon heating, and may become enhanced at times by weak disturbances in SW flow aloft. Wind fields are unimpressive, so activity should be slow moving and produce locally heavy rainfall. WPC has included the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Convection should wane Tuesday night as instability weakens. Scattered showers/tstms expected to redevelop with heating on Wednesday, but coverage should be less than Tuesday as geopotential heights will be on the rise. Highs are expected to reach mid 80s most locations, held just below climo by light NE flow in the morning, along with plenty of clouds. Ridge aloft continues to build Wednesday night, and any remaining convection overnight should be isolated. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging sfc-aloft will build overhead Thursday and move offshore Friday. Pattern will be typical of early summer, with high temps reaching around 90 degrees, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms which die off in the evening. With the ridge offshore Saturday and Sunday, and a weakness aloft developing to the west, precipitable water will again surge over 2 inches, and coverage of showers and storms should increase. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Broken mid cloud deck around 7kft currently across the area with light southwest winds inland and southerly sea breeze along the coast. Scattered light showers currently across the area, with very little precipitation making it to the ground. Will see increase in activity later today ahead of an approaching cold front, though limited instability will keep thunderstorm activity isolated to widely scattered. Have VCTS at FLO and LBT late afternoon into early evening. Front moves slowly into the area tonight, stalling near the coast by morning. On and off showers forecasted overnight into tomorrow, particularly for coastal and southern areas. Stratus deck around 1000-2000 ft expected to develop along and behind the front early tomorrow morning and continue through 18z TAF period. MYR and CRE have best chance of remaining VFR. Light winds tonight become northeasterly tomorrow under 10 kts. Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR conditions from convection Tue into Wed due to a stalled front in the vicinity. VFR to become more common as convection slowly wanes Wed night through Fri due to the front retreating north.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight: Cold front along the spine of the Appalachians this morning, will push to the immediate or just off the Southeast NC and Northeast SC coasts by sunrise Tue. The sfc pg will be at it`s tightest, relatively speaking, today. The sfc pg will relax as the frontal zone trudgingly pushes to and partially across the waters late tonight. The sfc pressure pattern combined with the gradient ahead of the front will yield S-SSW winds at 10 to occasionally 15 kt today. The sea breeze may add some gusts to 15 to 20 kt nearshore aftn thru early evening. Once in the frontal zone later tonight, winds will drop to 5 to 10 kt generally from the SW but may actually go variable in direction once in the frontal zone. Seas generally 2 to 3 ft thru early this evening, dropping to 2 ft or less by Tue daybreak. This in response to the 8 to 9 second SE swell fading-some and locally driven wind waves decreasing. Tuesday through Friday: Surface front is expected to move off the coast early Tuesday morning, with winds veering from NW to ENE by the afternoon.The weak front is expected to linger across the waters through Friday, with a lackluster pressure gradient in place. Wind direction likely to waffle depending on the exact location of the front, however speeds should remain on the order of 10 kt outside of scattered showers and tstms. The primary wave should be a 2 ft SE swell at 7-8 seconds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...VAO MARINE...DCH/CRM

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