Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 152007 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 307 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system pushes off to the northeast tonight. High pressure then builds in from the northwest early next week, remaining over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The next storm system will affect the area Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Slow moving cold front is basically through the area this afternoon as shown by a wind shift along with some breaks in the clouds. As the mid level low moves across Tennessee and opens up later Sunday a couple of surface troughs will move across the area. The rainfall is essentially over with guidance showing only a slight chance of showers across northeast zones this evening. Little if any cold air advection in the wake of the system so temperatures will only dip into the upper 40s or so tonight and rise into the lower 60s Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Upr-level low pressure pulls off to the NE Sunday night into Monday as surface high pressure builds into the Midwest. The high continues to build eastwards Monday night as dry NW flow persists aloft. Mostly clear/mostly sunny through the period with temps close to climatological norms...highs Monday in the low/mid 60s with lows both nights in the mid 30s to lwr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Dry wx to start off the long term period with dry deep layer NW flow and surface high pressure building into the Mid Atlantic. High temps in the mid 50s Tuesday. The high builds down into the Carolinas Tuesday night then starts to slide offshore Wednesday with the NW flow aloft transitioning to SWly ahead of the next low pressure system. High temps in the mid 50s Wednesday. As of the 12Z runs, the GFS is becoming more in line with the ECMWF showing another potential heavy rain maker with very wet conditions possible Thursday into Friday with a greatly amplified upper-level trough...PoPs increased to 60% Thursday/Thursday night. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...IFR/LIFR will be likely through mid-late afternoon with MVFR likely afterwards. Lowest confidence of IFR/LIFR will be at KILM. VFR will develop this evening and continue through the overnight hours. There is a chance of IFR at KLBT/KFLO around sunrise but confidence is moderate. Otherwise VFR after 12Z with west winds, gusty at times at the coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...A modest southwest flow of ten knots or so will slowly turn more to the west this evening and overnight and increase slowly in magnitude to 15-20 knots. This should slowly erode the sea fog that has persisted across the waters today. Will extend the MWS for a while however as the process will be slow. As for the small craft advisory that is in place via higher residual seas, the expiration time of 4 AM Sunday still looks good. Seas will drop to 3-5 feet for the most part Sunday probably necessitating a SCEC headline. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Winds and seas gradually improve into Sunday night as low pressure pushes farther offshore. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions then through the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the NW. Winds mainly 10-20 kt through this period with 2-4 ft seas. && .CLIMATE... As of 3 PM Saturday...Wilmington`s annual rainfall total stands at 100.11 inches as of 3 PM. Details are available at https:/weather.gov/ilm/RaceTo100 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MAS/SHK CLIMATE...

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