National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 271741
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
141 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower chances return this afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Thunderstorm chances peak on tonight and Tuesday with the
frontal passage. Scattered showers and storms return to the
forecast by mid-week as the front lingers offshore. Next weekend
will feature a return to typical afternoon storm chances and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks made to forecast based on latest obs and guidance.
Nudged temps down a couple degrees inland where ample cloud
cover continues. Scattered weak reflectivity returns currently
inland, but very little if any precipitation is making it to the
ground. May see a shower or two develop along sea breeze this
afternoon, but best chances remain ahead of incoming cold front
mid to late afternoon into tonight. Expected instability isn`t
great, but with high PW values and storm motions less than 10
kts some lucky spots may get some much needed rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level ridge axis extending across the FA from the lower
Mississippi Valley, will get suppressed south of the area
during this period. This in response to troffiness at mid-levels
expanding southward from Southeast Canada as successive s/w
trofs at 5H, passing north of the FA, aiding this expansion.
This will help drive a cold front southeastward, reaching the
immediate or just off the ILM CWA NC-SC Coasts by daybreak Tue.
The stalling of the front due to it becoming oriented parallel
to the flow aloft. The FA will see near normal temps as clouds
and convection inland associated with the front, keep temps in
line with the latest consensus MOS guidance. Mins tonight likely
will remain at or just above climo lows due to cloudiness and
pcpn. With the stalling front, may see some training of pcpn
later tonight but not enough to warrant any flooding issues
being the ongoing dry conditions. The pcpn will be a welcome
sight especially to farmers and to counter the increased
potential fire hazards. POPs will generally run in the low to
mid Chance category later today, lowest at the immediate coast,
and possibly climb to the high chance category tonight in the
vicinity of the I-95 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface front is expected to be just off the coast at 12Z Tue
with NE flow will keep high temps generally in the lower 80s.
Time- height cross sections show deep moisture remaining in
place behind the front, and this is reflected in precipitable
water values, which will hover over 2 inches through Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous,
especially during afternoon heating, and may become enhanced at
times by weak disturbances in SW flow aloft. Wind fields are
unimpressive, so activity should be slow moving and produce
locally heavy rainfall. WPC has included the area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. Convection should wane Tuesday
night as instability weakens. Scattered showers/tstms expected
to redevelop with heating on Wednesday, but coverage should be
less than Tuesday as geopotential heights will be on the rise.
Highs are expected to reach mid 80s most locations, held just
below climo by light NE flow in the morning, along with plenty
of clouds. Ridge aloft continues to build Wednesday night, and
any remaining convection overnight should be isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging sfc-aloft will build overhead Thursday and move
offshore Friday. Pattern will be typical of early summer, with
high temps reaching around 90 degrees, with isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms which die off in
the evening. With the ridge offshore Saturday and Sunday, and a
weakness aloft developing to the west, precipitable water will
again surge over 2 inches, and coverage of showers and storms
should increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Broken mid cloud deck around 7kft currently across the area with
light southwest winds inland and southerly sea breeze along the
coast. Scattered light showers currently across the area, with
very little precipitation making it to the ground. Will see
increase in activity later today ahead of an approaching cold
front, though limited instability will keep thunderstorm
activity isolated to widely scattered. Have VCTS at FLO and LBT
late afternoon into early evening.

Front moves slowly into the area tonight, stalling near the
coast by morning. On and off showers forecasted overnight into
tomorrow, particularly for coastal and southern areas. Stratus
deck around 1000-2000 ft expected to develop along and behind
the front early tomorrow morning and continue through 18z TAF
period. MYR and CRE have best chance of remaining VFR. Light
winds tonight become northeasterly tomorrow under 10 kts.

Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR conditions from convection
Tue into Wed due to a stalled front in the vicinity. VFR to
become more common as convection slowly wanes Wed night through
Fri due to the front retreating north.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
Cold front along the spine of the Appalachians this morning,
will push to the immediate or just off the Southeast NC and
Northeast SC coasts by sunrise Tue. The sfc pg will be at it`s
tightest, relatively speaking, today. The sfc pg will relax as
the frontal zone trudgingly pushes to and partially across the
waters late tonight. The sfc pressure pattern combined with the
gradient ahead of the front will yield S-SSW winds at 10 to
occasionally 15 kt today. The sea breeze may add some gusts to
15 to 20 kt nearshore aftn thru early evening. Once in the
frontal zone later tonight, winds will drop to 5 to 10 kt
generally from the SW but may actually go variable in direction
once in the frontal zone. Seas generally 2 to 3 ft thru early
this evening, dropping to 2 ft or less by Tue daybreak. This in
response to the 8 to 9 second SE swell fading-some and locally
driven wind waves decreasing.

Tuesday through Friday:
Surface front is expected to move off the coast early Tuesday
morning, with winds veering from NW to ENE by the afternoon.The
weak front is expected to linger across the waters through
Friday, with a lackluster pressure gradient in place. Wind
direction likely to waffle depending on the exact location of
the front, however speeds should remain on the order of 10 kt
outside of scattered showers and tstms. The primary wave should
be a 2 ft SE swell at 7-8 seconds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/CRM