955
FXUS61 KILN 082349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure center will cross the area underneath an
eastward moving mid level shortwave tonight, creating another
round of showers and thunderstorms. These storms will decrease
but then re-fire along a trailing cold front later in the day
Thursday, though with much less coverage and intensity than
recent events. High pressure will provide cooler and dry
weather to end of the work week before a fast moving system
moving through the Great Lakes brings showers on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A slower trend in showers and storms working into the CWA from
the south/southwest should also hamper the severe threat this
evening. Cirrus blowoff nosing into western CWA will thicken and
begin to knock down surface instability in the south. Southern
storms will need to maintain a severe threat as they approach
the CWA if they are expected to pose a threat for ILN.

WPC has southern/southwest CWA in a slight chance for excessive
rainfall tonight. Combined with last night`s rain, a
significantly deep moist atmosphere, and expected thunderstorms,
a flash flood watch has been issued for the southern 1/2 of
CWA.

Main concern for this watch remains in a narrow corridor
running from south of Wilmington to the Ohio River, then
northwest through metro Cincy and following I-74 through
Indiana. Rainfall along the I-74 corridor into Cincinnati was
quite high, with reports of 2-4" quite common and more than a
handful over 3", focused in Hamilton County.

Lows will remain warm, ranging from the mid 50s north to lower
60s in the southern half of CWA

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front behind the surface low and upper s/w will clear
our area early Thursday with cooler air holding daytime highs in
the low to mid 60s north of I-70, low to mid 70s south to the
Ohio River, and some upper 70s along the Ohio and in northern
Kentucky.

As cooler air in the north works in, the overturning associated
with it could interact with the last s/w activity ahead of a l/w
trough late in the day. Add in a trailing cold front laying out
w-e in the center of the CWA and that brings another rain
potential, moreso to the north. Models are a little too
generous with rainfall on Thursday, and probably a little heavy
handed regarding thunder prospects. Shaved back a little bit wrt
pops, especially early but did not adjust the thunder chances.

The trailing front will be more of a boundary that could
continue to support shower activity as the l/w trough approaches
from the northwest towards daybreak Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The l/w trough will slowly move east on Friday. Couldn`t remove
the shower threat entirely but it`s quite muted and only
expected to be some passing light showers if they do develop.

A brief lull in pops Friday evening will end later overnight as
a secondary reinforcing s/w tracks sw into northern OH early
Saturday. This will generate a weak surface circulation and
trailing cold front/windshift to create more showers and
possibly some thunderstorms through evening. Decreasing clouds
overnight with increasing heights will promote a drier period
lasting through early Monday.

In the cold air behind the front, temperatures will drop to the
upper 40s and low 50s Thursday night, and a sharply cooler
Friday with highs in the low 60s. Another cool night will see
Saturday morning start out in the 45-50 range, with only
slightly warmer highs in the 60s. One last cool night is in the
offing for Saturday night as lows drop to the mid 40s. Highs
will then begin to warm a little each day beginning Sunday.

Upper level zonal flow through early next week will promote a
slow modification of the airmass with daytime highs reaching back
into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Some embedded mid level energy
will lead to some lower end chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms both days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible overnight.
Expect activity to decrease late in the overnight hours and
there will be the potential for some stratus and fog. Scattered
showers and some thunderstorms will develop on Thursday,
especially during the afternoon. Activity will decrease late in
the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs possible into Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT Thursday for INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...