Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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756 FXUS64 KAMA 101834 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 134 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A weather system centered over the desert SW has started to influence the southern plains. This has seen some low but more so mid level moisture move into the southern plains from the north. This moisture has slowly moved into the western panhandles which will allow for a low chance of light rain showers to even isolated thunderstorm to form this afternoon to evening. Accumulations of any rainfall during this time will be very low as the moisture is still not high. As the weather systems influence grows through today and tonight it will cause the winds to shift to a SE flow. The winds will strengthen some becoming gusty during the afternoon and evening hours. These winds will then drive in additional low level moisture across the panhandles. This will cause the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to increase and cover the entire panhandles. As there will be more moisture in play moderate to even brief heavy rainfall may occur with these showers and thunderstorms increasing rainfall yields. Sunday will see the weather system finally move out of the desert SW and across the southern plains. In doing so it will draw additional moisture across the panhandles while increasing the instability and environmental dynamics. This will lead to even higher chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. It will also open up at least a low chance for strong to even severe thunderstorms. The central to eastern portions of the panhandles are currently the more favored area for this low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms to take place. The main threat from these powerful storms is going to be large hail and damaging winds. All this chat of rain and thunderstorms doesn`t guarantee that any spot will receive any rain at all, it could be that one spot get multiple showers and thunderstorms while other will stay dry the whole time. So while the whole panhandles should average 0.5 to 1 in of rain some area will see higher some will see lower or nothing. This weekend will be on the cooler side as the ample moisture will have a high chance of causing fairly extensive clouds. This will help to suppress daytime heating bringing down the temperatures. This will further be compounded by the system itself moving cooler air across the southern plains. So below average highs in the 60s to 70s have a high chance of occurring for both Saturday and Sunday. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Showers/storms will hopefully be ongoing intermittently through the weekend, creating a less than obvious thunderstorm outlook on Sunday. More vigorous upper level support should arrive to the region by Sunday afternoon-evening as a positively tilted trough ejects towards the Plains. Deep-layer moisture will remain in place by the time this system arrives, with high PWATs around or greater than 1.00" for much of the Panhandles. The question lies in how much instability can exist for afternoon convection, likely dependent on daytime heating and recovery from any overnight/ morning convection, along with if and where the cap can break to utilize any available fuel. As a sfc trough develops through the day, it may help to break the cap and initiate additional convection. Deep-layer shear would likely be favorable for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms IF sufficient instability remains in place east of the sfc trough. Based on ensemble probabilities for CAPE >1000 J/kg (40-70%), the most favored areas for this low-end severe potential would reside across the eastern to central combined Panhandles. Regardless, any shower or storm on Sunday would likely provide beneficial rainfall, especially across eastern counties where model forecast soundings depict a saturated environment with tall, skinny CAPE profiles. Generally expect weekend rainfall totals in the 0.1-0.5" range, with localized higher localized totals in the 0.75-1.00" range or greater certainly plausible. As the system departs Sunday night, a weak cold front will swoop down and steal whatever moisture remains, although some lingering showers may persist into Monday morning. Monday will actually be warmer behind the front however, thanks to eroding cloud cover and increased sunshine. Sfc winds shift to south- southwesterly Tuesday as ridging aloft makes a temporary return. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday, warming into the 80s Tuesday. Rain and storms could return by midweek when ensembles agree another shortwave approaches the region. Details are still up in the air and although currently unimpressive, Wednesday could be a day to monitor for strong to severe storms, with rain chances persisting into Thursday. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Rain showers and even isolated thunderstorms push into the western panhandles this afternoon and evening. While this is not expected to impact any terminal today there is a very small chance that KDHT can be impacted. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of today and early morning hours. By mid morning of Saturday rain showers and thunderstorms will spread across the panhandles and become more numerous. All terminals will have a chance for rain and thunderstorms through this time. Conditions have a high chance to become MVFR as low clouds settle across the panhandles starting during the mid morning impacting all terminals. While the chances are very low strong storms with hail and damaging winds cannot be fully ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 69 52 72 / 10 60 70 80 Beaver OK 50 79 52 73 / 0 40 60 90 Boise City OK 47 67 47 72 / 20 80 70 80 Borger TX 53 76 54 77 / 10 60 70 90 Boys Ranch TX 51 70 52 77 / 20 70 80 70 Canyon TX 50 67 51 74 / 10 60 70 70 Clarendon TX 53 71 53 69 / 10 60 60 90 Dalhart TX 46 65 48 74 / 20 80 80 70 Guymon OK 48 73 50 74 / 10 60 70 90 Hereford TX 51 67 52 76 / 20 70 80 60 Lipscomb TX 52 78 54 72 / 0 30 70 90 Pampa TX 52 73 53 71 / 10 50 60 90 Shamrock TX 54 75 54 68 / 0 40 60 90 Wellington TX 55 75 54 68 / 0 40 60 90 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...98