Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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054 FXUS64 KAMA 132354 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 654 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Today the panhandles are still under the influence of the weather system that is pushing off to the east. This weather system is causing the gusty north winds that will persist through the afternoon and early evening. Wrap around moisture from this system is currently streaming across mainly the eastern panhandles. This is leading to isolated rain showers and possibly even a thunderstorm this afternoon. Areas that see a rain showers or thunderstorms will see only light accumulations of rain as the moisture causing them is low. Today also begins a warmer phase with temperatures reaching the 70s to 80s. For Tuesday a weak ridge builds over the southern plains but this will be flattened out by a trough in the central plains. The ridge will bring mostly calm weather to the TX panhandles while OK being influenced by the trough would have a low chance for rain showers or thunderstorms. Similar to today any rain shower or thunderstorm that does occur wont have much moisture to work with so rainfall amounts will be low. As the ridge builds over the southern plains the winds will shift to the south but be overall weaker as the pressure gradient under the ridge will be loose. Under this ridge the temperatures will continue to increase with the entire panhandles expected to be firmly in the 80s. A few of the warmest spots could even reach 90 as early as Tuesday. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Thunderstorms, with a severe potential expected Wed. Highs in the 80s expected across mainly the southeastern two thirds of the combined Panhandles. A frontal passage is progged to come through late Wed/Wed night with cooler temperatures in the 70s for Thu. Additional showers and thunderstorms are also expected Thu into Thu night as well. Slight chances for thunderstorms may exist for the far southeastern TX Panhandle early Fri. However, Fri through the weekend is looking dry with temperatures warming into the 90s for Sat/Sun afternoon. Wed a mid to upper level trough is expected to bring some mid level moisture to the area as well as the aforementioned cold front Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of the Mexico is expected to bring some surface moisture up through south and western portions of Texas. This moisture is expected to pick up just in time for some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. PVA with the expected shortwave trough, as well as the expected cold front may bring in some additional forcing for ascent late Wed. Have stuck with the NBM that gives chance PoPs for the afternoon and early evening hours, and increases to likely PoPs going into the evening/overnight hours as the front approaches. Although the front is expected late Wed night, the initial wind shift to the north my be early in the day and play a role in storm development and location of the severe storms. Storms will still have a chance to initiate off of convective temperatures being reached. If storms do get going early from convective temperatures they will have enough CAPE around 1000-1500 J/Kg (potentially higher depending on model) for storms to become severe. Strong inverted V forecast soundings suggest wind could be the main severe factor starting off. Confidence in the magnitude and coverage of severe storms remains low at this time due to factors such as the timing of the front and timing of the main dynamics aloft. Once the front completely comes through the combined Panhandles severe storms become less of a threat overnight with an increase in a threat for flooding. Moisture flux is expected to pick up overnight with forecast sounding looking more tropical in nature with times of heavy rain possible. The main shortwave aloft is expected Thu night with continued rain chances all the way thru Fri morning. After this system exits, ridging begins to take place with much of the area reaching the 90s for Sat and again Sun. 36 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR weather conditions continue for the new 00Z TAF period. Winds at the surface will stay breezy for a couple more hours before they diminish as they veer from north to south. Breezy southeast winds will settle in tomorrow afternoon, gusting up to 25 kts at times for all sties. Thunderstorms have a low chance (10-20%) to form near AMA and GUY towards the end of the TAF period, but we cannot completely rule out their development at this time and are still watching for the potential. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 50 87 54 87 / 0 10 10 30 Beaver OK 47 86 54 85 / 0 0 20 40 Boise City OK 46 85 50 78 / 0 20 10 50 Borger TX 51 90 56 89 / 0 0 10 40 Boys Ranch TX 49 90 52 88 / 0 10 10 30 Canyon TX 49 87 53 87 / 0 10 10 30 Clarendon TX 51 84 55 87 / 0 0 10 40 Dalhart TX 45 86 48 82 / 0 10 10 30 Guymon OK 47 88 51 82 / 0 10 20 40 Hereford TX 49 89 53 87 / 0 0 10 30 Lipscomb TX 49 85 56 87 / 0 0 10 30 Pampa TX 50 85 56 86 / 0 0 10 40 Shamrock TX 51 84 55 88 / 0 0 10 40 Wellington TX 51 84 56 89 / 0 0 10 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...55