Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 280854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
354 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Today, Memorial Day will definitely feel like summer as the heat
continues across Central IL to wrap up the holiday weekend. A
broad upper ridge remains parked over the Central Plains,
building NE into the Midwest. Tropical Storm Alberto moving into
the Gulf Coast will add some moisture back into the atmosphere,
impacting the Midwest in a couple days. For now, a general lack
of pressure gradient at the surface has left the winds light and
somewhat variable again today...and the region susceptible to the
same weak forcing from any mesoscale boundaries for isolated
shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon/early

Yesterdays isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms again a
threat as the temps into the 90s and dewpoints in the low
70s/upper 60s going into the max heat of the day providing plenty
of surface based instability, CAPES in the 2500-3000 J/kg. Once
again, CAMs trying to focus any convection along weak surface
convergence, but yesterdays convection was not well handled as
the models are struggling to maintain any mesoscale features into
the overnight hours. High res models trying to produce afternoon
convection again, and see no reason not to at least put a mention
for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Atmosphere not capping as
would commonly see in this kind of pattern, and daytime heating is
enough. Hot and muggy will be the rule, with only those isolated
showers and thunderstorms providing any relief. Keep heat safety
considerations in mind while participating in outdoor activities
this holiday weekend, as the heat does not relent through the
holiday. Temperatures in the overnight tonight only drop into the
upper 60s/low 70s again tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Max temps through Tuesday are into the 90s, with the same muggy
air in place to keep the heat indexes well into the upper 90s.
Alberto, moving into the Gulf Coast today, tracks northward into
the Ohio River Valley for midweek. Models are trending further to
the east, potentially causing some issues with the qpf forecast.
However, so far, the blended forecasts are not yet responding to
the more easterly trend, and an axis of high qpf is laying out
over the IL/IN border through Wed. Max temps for Wednesday are
also cooler, with the impact of the cloud cover associated with
Alberto. With the western side of the subtropical system, Alberto
will be pulling some of the more dry air into its core. With an
increasingly easterly track for the storm, the chances for
significant qpf will also fade should that trend continue. Alberto
slows over the Great Lakes and phases with another wave ejecting
out of the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Pops remain in
the forecast through Thursday, potentially drying out Thursday and
Friday as the system moves out to the NE. Temps in the extended
going into next weekend may be erroneously low, with climatology
bringing down the guidance, as the predominantly southwesterly
flow does not appreciably shift beyond midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through most of the 06Z TAF valid time.
Isolated showers/storms possible again Monday afternoon/evening,
but confidence in explicit timing & coverage is too low to
include in the terminals at this time. Overall, minimal cloud
cover and light winds are expected through the period.


Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Here are Record Highs Today thru Tuesday in Central IL...

City.......... Mon/May 28  Tue/May 29

Bloomington...  97/2012     97/1934
Charleston....  97/1911     96/1934
Danville......  97/1911     95/1942
Decatur.......  94/1991     96/1934
Effingham.....  94/2012     98/1895
Havana........  92/2006     95/2006
Jacksonville..  92/2006     95/1934
Lincoln.......  94/2006     96/1934
Mattoon.......  93/1991     92/1987
Minonk........  96/2012     98/1934
Paris.........  96/1911     95/1914
Peoria........  94/2006     99/1934
Robinson......  97/1911     96/2012
Rushville.....  92/1941     98/1934
Springfield...  94/2006     95/1934
Tuscola.......  97/1911     94/1991
Urbana........  94/1991     96/1934




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