Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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737 FXUS64 KTSA 112322 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 622 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Cloudiness will be on the increase overnight in advance of the next storm system that will affect the area Sunday and Monday. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible overnight in far southeast Oklahoma, but most rain will hold off until Sunday. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms will be on the increase Sunday and Sunday night as the upper system to the west begins to move out into the plains. Instability will remain modest by typical May standards so severe weather chances will remain low. Shower and storm chances will continue Monday as a surface low and weak cold front move across the area, but severe chances will remain limited at best. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday into Monday. Another upper level storm system will affect the area Wednesday night and Thursday bringing an additional round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Again, severe weather potential will remain rather limited, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Temperatures will generally remain near the seasonal averages through much of the upcoming week, but a notable trend towards warmer weather will be seen by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR will prevail thru the period, with one possible exception to be discussed below. Gradually increasing mid and high cloud will be the rule thru the TAFs, with some chance for a few showers Sunday afternoon at the E OK TAF sites. Activity will be fighting drier air in the low levels so elected to use VCSH mention for NE OK. Chances higher at KMLC so a SHRA prevailing mention was used. There`s a low chance at the tail end of the forecast Sunday afternoon for some MVFR cigs to move into KMLC. Kept W AR sites dry with VFR cigs. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 60 77 61 / 0 10 60 90 FSM 84 61 80 61 / 0 10 40 80 MLC 83 61 76 61 / 10 10 70 80 BVO 82 56 77 59 / 0 10 60 100 FYV 81 54 78 58 / 10 10 20 90 BYV 78 56 79 58 / 10 10 20 80 MKO 83 60 77 60 / 0 10 60 90 MIO 80 56 78 59 / 0 10 40 90 F10 81 60 75 60 / 0 10 70 90 HHW 80 61 74 61 / 10 20 80 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...30