106
FXUS64 KTSA 090009
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
709 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Cold (well really cool) front is progressing south and east across
the region late this afternoon, where visible satellite shows a
clearly defined line of towering cu or thunderstorms from near
Durant north to McAlester and Muskogee Oklahoma to Siloam Springs
and Berryville Arkansas. A very unstable and strongly sheared warm
sector ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms
with very large hail and isolated damaging wind. Low level shear
isn`t particularly strong, but enough to support some tornado
threat with the discrete storms. Will continue to clear the
tornado watch from NW to SE as the front clears the area. The
latest CAMs suggest that storms should clear the area by 11 PM.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across
northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends
from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is expected to continue in
the vicinity of the front as it moves east across the region. With
the airmass already extremely unstable and very little if any cap
in place, any storms that develop will have the potential to become
severe rapidly. Giant hail and significant tornadoes will be the
main concern with impressive deep layer shear above. The storms are
expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front
exits.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Most of the area will be dry on Thursday. However, there will be
a small chance of showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma Thursday
afternoon/evening as a storm system skirts the area to the
south. High pressure is expected to prevail Friday into Saturday with
dry conditions forecast area-wide. Shower/storm chances return
Sunday and continue into early next week as an upper level low slowly
moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A cold front will continue to move through eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Ongoing showers/storms along the
front in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas are
expected to continue to expand in coverage across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening with the movement of
the front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
large hail and strong winds. Also within the storms...LIFR to MVFR
conditions are forecast. By 06z the storms and cold front are
forecast to be southeast of the CWA TAF sites. Behind the
front...clearing skies should spread over the CWA tonight and
remain common into Thursday morning. During the day
Thursday scattered/broken high clouds are forecast to move over
the CWA. Winds ahead of the front remain south to southwest and
then transition to west to northerly behind the frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  84  57  78 /  60  10  10   0
MLC   60  81  57  77 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   50  78  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  80  50  75 /  70  10  10   0
BYV   54  77  50  72 /  90   0  10   0
MKO   55  78  53  75 /  30  10  10   0
MIO   50  76  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
F10   55  78  53  75 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   63  82  58  77 /  70  40  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20