827
FXUS64 KTSA 091724
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024
A few elevated showers/thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma
late this morning. This activity is moving into a more stable
air-mass, so overall coverage will likely be very isolated at best
before weakening. Additional, mainly elevated, showers/thunderstorms
are expected across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon as mid level
disturbance approaches from the southwest. A storm or two could
become marginally severe near the Red River, closer to the cold
front, before shifting southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday with
dry weather and near normal temperatures. The pattern aloft will
feature a near stationary closed low over the southwestern CONUS
which is expected to finally move across the southern Plains
Sunday through Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase accordingly with widespread rains appearing likely Sunday
night through Monday. Overall the severe weather potential appears
rather low at this time with limited instability and stronger flow
more south the region.

The flow aloft remains northwesterly through the central CONUS in
wake of the passing upper low and likely beyond as amplified
ridging develops over the western CONUS. This should allow several
stronger cold front to move through the region with the severe
weather potential remaining much less than has recently been seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will spread into southeast Oklahoma
this afternoon, potentially impacting KMLC with brief MVFR conditions.
A few showers may also move into the KFSM area by late afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with scattered high clouds into
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  76  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  78  54  82 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   57  78  54  82 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   49  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   51  74  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  71  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  74  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  75  54  80 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   59  78  55  79 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12