Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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896
FXUS61 KAKQ 252325
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
725 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts northeast and away from the area tonight.
Weak high pressure returns Thursday. The next area of low
pressure crosses the local area late Thursday night through
Friday. Dry weather is on tap this weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Cold pool aloft along with merging outflow bndrys was the
reason for the pulse type tstrms this aftrn. Svrl reports of
pea to marble size hail, but nothing svr reported.

Systm will be slow to depart tonight with sct shwrs this eve
tapering off then ending along the ern shore by 06Z. Thus, will
carry chc pops this eve. Istld thunder along the coast as the
trailing trof moves east. Skies become pt cldy after midnite as
drier air filters in behind the departing low. Lows by 12Z from
the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

A brief break from the unsettled weather Thursday...although
expecting clouds to begin arriving/increasing from the SSW as
the next area of low pressure tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA.
Expect most areas to be dry through the day, although did allow
slight chc PoPs over interior NE NC after 21z. Highs Thu mainly
70-75F, except 60s at the beaches.

A quick increase in PoPs (to 40-80%) Thu night (after 06z) as
low pressure enters the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70% NE
half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 20-30% far SW. The low
pressure area lifts to the NE of the local area Friday
afternoon...however will be keeping 20-30% as a low pressure
trough remains invof the FA. Otherwise...mostly cloudy Friday
morning, then some partial sunshine in the afternoon. Lows
Thursday night from near 50 N to the mid 50s S. Highs Friday
from the upr 60s NW and along the immediate coast to the low/mid
70s central/southern locales.

Improved conditions Friday night and Saturday, although do
expect a dry cold front to cross the region Saturday afternoon.
Partly to mostly clear during this time. Lows Friday night from
the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Highs Saturday mainly 70-75,
except upr 60s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as high
pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position
over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue/Wed.
Cool to start, then a warming trend.

Lows Sat/Sun nites near 40 nw to near 50 se. Highs Sun in the 60s,
mid 60s-lwr 70s Mon. Lows Mon nite mid 40s nw to lwr 50s se. Highs
Tues 75-80. Lows Tues nite in the 50s. Highs Wed upr 70s-lwr
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS cont across the area as the upr level low
slowly moves off the coast. Kept VCSH at RIC/SBY based on latest
radar trends. Any thunder will quickly diminish after sunset.
Clouds decrease w-e late tonight and Thurs as high prs builds
into the area.

OUTLOOK...
The next low prs systm will impact the region by late Thu night
into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely due to lower
BKN-OVC CIGS and SHRAS. Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

SCA Headlines remain in effect through 1 am Thu for the mouth of
the Bay, and well into Thu aftn for all coastal waters due to
lingering long period E/SE swell of 10-12 seconds. Seas
currently avg 6-8 ft with waves to around 4 ft at the mouth of
the Bay.

Broad low pressure moving into the Delmarva this aftn and will
continue to lift NE into New Jersey this evening through
tonight. Winds are relatively light with S to SE flow around 10
kt or less (light/variable in some areas). Winds will shift to
the W to NW at around 15 kt later tonight into Thu morning.
While some occasional 20 kt gusts will probably develop for a
few hrs early Thu morning across much of the area (especially
in the Bay N of New pt Comfort), does not look to be enough to
warrant SCA headlines since there is minimal cold advection in
the wake of this cold front. Weak sfc high pressure builds in
fm the NNW on Thu, with winds diminishing by late morning and
shifting back to onshore during the mid/late aftn hrs through
Thu evening. Another low pressure area will affect the waters
Thu night thru Fri, as it tracks from the SE U.S. through the
local area on Fri and off to the NE by Fri night. Another cold
front crosses the waters Sat night, increasing winds close to
SCA levels, then diminishing Sun as high pressure returns.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB



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