639
FXUS61 KAKQ 151745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues through midweek with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible each day before the heat
rebuilds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1027 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect through midnight tonight for all
  central, eastern, and southeastern Virginia
  counties/independent cities along with southeast Maryland.

- Heavy rainfall will bring a flash flooding threat, especially
  for vulnerable areas that have received significant rain the
  past several days.

Rain has finally diminished across the forecast area after a long
night of flooding. The Flash Flood Warnings for the hardest hit
areas that are still experiencing flooding have been transitioned to
Flood Warnings this morning. While a lot of the local area still
remains pretty socked in terms of cloud cover, there is some signal
on GOES Visible imagery that some clearing is already starting to
place in the some of the northern and western counties. Mesoanalysis
is highlighting PW values of 2"+ still in place, which is backed up
by soundings across the area, which measured PW values at or just
above 2". The atmosphere will need time to recover after this
morning`s storms, so additional thunderstorms are not expected this
morning at this time.

A slow-moving shortwave trough across the Mid-Atlantic will help
trigger additional scattered convection this afternoon and also
provide some upper-level support so storms can sustain themselves
for longer periods of time. A weak boundary draped across the
forecast area may be an additional lifting mechanism for showers and
thunderstorms. The boundary extends across south-central VA through
eastern VA, and is close to where some of the heaviest rainfall fell
last night and this morning. We will continue to keep a close eye on
any developing storms in this area, as flash-flood guidance in these
more vulnerable areas is very low and it will not take much for
further flooding. A similar environment to the past few days is
expected featuring ample instability (once the atmosphere
recharges), minimal inhibition, and the anomalously high PW values.
With the steering flow negligible, the main threat will continue to
be flash-flooding. Slow moving to almost stationary storms will lead
to extended periods of heavy rainfall for localized areas across our
forecast area. The challenge is pinpointing exactly where any storm
development will take place. WPC has placed a majority of our
forecast area in a Slight ERO today, and scattered instances of
flash-flooding are possible. A Marginal ERO is in place across
eastern North Carolina. A localized wet microburst threat will
accompany any tstms, but the threat is not high enough to
warrant a marginal risk area. Showers/tstms should diminish
later tonight.

As we lose daytime heating this evening into tonight, convection
should taper off but cannot rule out a few additional showers.
Pending the end time of convection, patchy fog could develop
overnight. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional
  rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the
  area.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday (shifted slightly N)
with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and
evening as a shortwave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves
across the region. No real changes in the airmass through
Wednesday with PW values remaining around 2" so the threat for
localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists. Given a
northward shift in the synoptic pattern, the marginal risk ERO
is N of the local area, but a localized flood threat will
continue for vulnerable areas. Continued seasonally hot and
humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy
Wednesday night with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northward
into the area through the weekend. With this change in the
pattern, convective coverage will likely diminish some, but due
to the time of year and weaker ridge, have maintained scattered
PoPs for the time being. With the decrease in cloud cover and
storms expected combined with the upper ridging, temperatures
will be able to climb into the lower 90s Thursday through
Saturday, with Friday possibly seeing mid 90s across the area.
At the same time, there will be an uptick in low level moisture
and dew points will increase into the mid to upper 70s. Heat
indices, especially on Friday, could eclipse 105F+ so Heat
Advisories may be required. On Saturday, temperatures may not be
quite as warm, so Heat Advisories may be necessary only in the
southern portion of our area. Continued seasonally hot and humid
Sunday/Monday with some dampening of the upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Intermittent MVFR/IFR CIGS are currently ongoing at all terminals
this afternoon. Cloud cover is starting to dwindle from west to
east, so clouds should scatter out starting at RIC. Have included
TEMPOS to account for the low CIGS through 19Z. Meanwhile, showers
and thunderstorms have started to develop in the southern part of
the forecast area and are moving northeast. Convective coverage
should increase over the next few hours, and have included a PROB30
at ORF, PHF, and RIC. Did not have enough confidence in timing to
include a TEMPO for thunderstorms at any of these terminals, so
amendments will likely be necessary. Storms will decrease in
coverage overnight, though some fog and low stratus are possible at
the terminals early tomorrow morning. Winds outside of convection
will be southwest at 5-10 kts, possibly becoming light and variable
overnight.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected to recur Wed. Shower/storm coverage
is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday outside of
local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

High pressure offshore continues to lead to prevailing southerly
flow over most of the waters. However, winds in some areas have
turned to the N this morning due to convective influences. The
expectation is for winds to again become SW everywhere around
sunrise through the late morning period. As sea breezes develop this
afternoon, expect the wind direction to turn S-SE at 10-15 kt. The
pressure gradient sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure
tracks well N of the area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt
SW winds are expected through Wednesday, with less of a sea breeze
influence. A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are appearing
increasingly plausible Wednesday night and local wind probabilities
are 80-90% for 18 kt sustained winds across most of the Chesapeake
Bay and coastal waters. Will hold off on issuing headlines given
this is within the fourth period, but SCAs will likely eventually be
needed sometime within the 00z-12z period Wednesday night/Thursday
morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Wednesday night, with 2-3 ft (locally
4 ft) in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds decrease some during the day
Thursday, especially over the open water, but will tend to remain
gusty to around 20 kt on nearshore portions of the waters (including
on the rivers and Currituck Sound). Another period of elevated SW
flow (and SCAs) is possible Thursday night/Friday morning, but
confidence is lower. By later Friday into the weekend, benign
conditions return with high pressure settling near the area.

Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue
much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong
wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...SW