355
FXUS63 KTOP 091726
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week, with seasonable
  temperatures in the 70s.

- Precipitation chances (30-60%) return Sunday and persist
  through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A breezy and mild day today with northerly wind gusting to 25
mph as cold air advection and a steeper pressure gradient
develop. Upper-level flow will split across the central Plains
today with an upper-level low pushing off to the east toward
the Great Lakes and another retrograding west toward the Four
Corners region. This will keep us in a favorable pattern for dry
and mild conditions through the end of the week.

By Saturday night, the upper-level low to the west will begin
propagating eastward into the Plains. Precipitation chances are
likely to increase Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves
into the Central Plains. Most 00 UTC models have the center of
the low slowly moving across Kansas through early next week.
This could lead to a prolonged period of rainy/stormy weather
for our area. Instability and shear are also favored to return
to the area by next week, bringing chances for severe storms to
our area once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR TAFs will be expected at all sites through the period with
a breezy and mostly clear forecast. Winds will remain out of
the northwest/north and begin to decrease below 10 knots around
sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Griesemer