721
FXUS61 KBGM 091057
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
657 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather is expected today following the passage of a cold
front. A batch of rain is expected later today into Friday.
Additional on-and-off showers are anticipated for this weekend
right into next week, along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
335 AM Update:

Following the passage of a cold front, a northerly flow will
bring considerably cooler weather today along with mostly cloudy
skies, with perhaps a few breaks of sun. After 70s and 80s for
high temperatures yesterday, today`s highs will be a few degrees
below normal for this time of the year with upper 50s to mid
60s present. Model guidance continues the slower onset of rain
showers later today with an approaching trough, with any rain
showers likely holding off at least until the late afternoon and
most likely until this evening.

The aforementioned trough and surface low south of the region
will move through the area tonight through Friday. As a result,
coverage of rain showers will be increasing as this evening
progresses, becoming widespread/steadier by around midnight and
through Friday. With the cool airmass in place combined with the
rain-cooled air, high temperatures on Friday will be quite
chilly for this time of the year; mainly in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

Rainfall rates should remain on the lighter side, perhaps
becoming moderate at times. Rainfall totals tonight through
Friday will range from around an inch across parts of the Twin
Tiers to between 0.50" and 0.75" for most of the rest of the
area. Lowest amounts should be north of the NY Thruway corridor,
where amounts should be less than 0.50". Since this will occur
over a longer period of time, rather than all at once, combined
with green-up underway or complete across most of the area,
flooding is not a concern with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
355 AM Update

This period will feature rather unsettled, cool and showery weather
much of the time. Model guidance is in good agreement that a series
of shortwaves embedded within a large, broad upper level trough will
rotate through the area over the weekend.

There will be some lingering showers Friday night, with perhaps some
dry time heading into early Saturday as the first shortwave trough
moves off the East Coast by 8 AM Saturday. Close on its heels the
next, more potent upper level wave digs into the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region by midday or early afternoon. This system will
bring renewed chances for showers, especially along and west of I-81
heading into Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, it will be partly to
mostly cloudy all day, with generally light southerly winds under 10
mph expected. It will be cool with lows in the low to mid-40s and
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s...this is 5-8 degrees below
average.

It appears the upper trough axis, along with the mid-level and
surface low will overhead Saturday night. This will keep a good
chance for clouds and showers in the forecast overnight...seasonably
cool with lows in the mid-40s for most locations. The main mid/upper
level low moves into Southern New England on Sunday; but our area
remains in a moist, cyclonic flow regime. This will keep scattered
to numerous pop up showers in the forecast. Any instability looks
very weak/modest...but can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm.
Total rainfall amounts look to stay on the light side from the this
system; mainly between 0.25 to 0.75 inches for the entire weekend.

With 850mb temperatures hovering near +1C and thicknesses under
543dm, highs will struggle to reach the mid-50s to lower 60s Sunday
afternoon...again close to 10 degrees below average. Finally by
Sunday night some brief ridging pushes into the area, bringing dry
weather and partial clearing. Another cool night with lows in the
upper 30s to mid-40s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

355 AM Update

More unsettled, showery weather looks to remain over the area next
week. The first system slides in with showers and a slight chance
for thunderstorms Monday afternoon. There is more uncertainty with
the timing and position of individual waves/disturbances after this.
However, in general upper level troughing remains over the Northeast
US, with scattered to numerous showers continuing each day.
Instability is mainly low, or very low...but cannot rule out a few
stray afternoon or evening thunderstorms each day. Lowered PoPs some
for Wednesday & Thursday, compared to what the latest NBM suggested.
This was again due to differences in how amplified the trough will be
and timing of individual shortwaves. The latest 00z deterministic
ECMWF actually shows upper level ridging and dry/pleasant weather
for next Thursday, the 00z GFS shows another trough and more rain
chances. Overall, there is higher than usual uncertainty and spread
in the model data for the end of the extended forecast period.

Temperatures will be on a slow warming trend, reaching the mid-60s
to low 70s Monday afternoon. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday see
seasonably mild daytime highs, in the upper 60s to mid-70s.
Overnight lows are mainly in the low to mid-50s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Post-frontal ceiling restrictions are expected this morning;
mainly MVFR to Fuel Alternate. Ceilings will return to VFR by
mid-morning. Rain showers move in from south to north this
evening, but conditions are currently expected to remain VFR
until around 06Z, before restrictions move in after 06Z.

Outlook...

Friday...Rain and restrictions likely Friday.

Friday night through Monday...Periods of showers with
intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG