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000
FXUS61 KBGM 171745
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
145 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected this afternoon as a warm front moves
through the area. Rain showers will continue off and on through
Thursday. A quick high pressure system pushes across the area
Thursday night before another system brings more showers on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
925 AM Update:

The forecast remains on track and no significant changes were
needed with this update.

630 AM Update...

High level clouds have moved overhead ahead of the approaching
storm system. Forecast remains on track with rain showers
starting late morning/early afternoon.

255 AM Update...

Calm and quiet conditions tonight and through tomorrow morning.
Temps tonight range from low 30s in the valleys of the Catskills
to 50 in the Wyoming Valley. Temps will cool a few more degrees
as clear skies remain mostly east of I-81 and winds have calmed
across the region.

The pleasant weather pattern over the last couple of days will
become active again as a low pressure system moves in from the
west. Multiple fronts and shortwave moving through the region
will bring rain showers and a possible isolated thunderstorm
Wed afternoon into Thursday afternoon.

A warm front will push into the region from the west beginning
late in the morning. Temperatures are expected to climb into the
mid 50s to low 60s, with the warmer temps in the Wyoming and
Mohawk Valleys. Precipitation will accompany the front, with
rain showers expected to begin in the early afternoon and push
to the NE. Model soundings show a pretty strong inversion near
the surface as the warm front moves through, so the initial
precip should be void of thunder. Some elevated instability is
expected to develop during the evening hours, and combined with
a shortwave pushing through the area will bring a chance for
isolated thunderstorms during the mid evening into the overnight
hours stretching from the western Finger Lakes into NEPA.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected around sunrise on
Thursday before a weak cold front and trough axis moves through
the area from mid morning into the afternoon. This should allow
for rain showers to remain across the region into the evening
hours. Temperatures on Thursday will vary greatly from west to
east, with low 60s expected out west to upper 40s in the
Catskills.

While we have a long period of rain, total rainfall amounts are
expected to be low, with 0.25 to 0.75 inches expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update

Friday will feature a cold front pushing through the region.
This will bring widespread rain showers and gusty southerly
winds at 10-20 mph ahead of the front. Depending on the exact
timing of FROPA, showers could hold on until Friday evening
before brief ridging and high pressure builds in Friday night
into Saturday morning. Brief high pressure on Saturday will
bring mostly dry conditions, however an upper trough and
reinforcing shot of cold air (Secondary cold front) comes in
Saturday afternoon. CAA advection on NW flow and isolated
showers and increasing cold air strato-cu is expected Saturday
afternoon. Also, expect breezy west- northwest winds 15 to 25
mph with gusts up around 30 mph.

Saturday night is dry, with decreasing clouds and diminishing
winds as upper ridge and surface ridge begins to build in. If
winds decouple fast enough it will be quite chilly/cold with
lows near or just below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM Update...

High pressure to end the weekend and into the first half of
next week. Overall, this should bring mostly sunny/clear
conditions. Expect a large diurnal temperature trend with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the low to mid 30s.

At this point Tuesday is also looking dry to start, but the
latest guidance suggest at least a chance for late day showers
as the next upper level disturbance moves into the Ohio Valley
and east-central Great Lakes region. Looking ahead to next
Wednesday, and upper level trough will be over the
Northeast...bringing a continued chance for rain showers and
partly sunny skies. Steady daytime temperatures and a bit milder
overnight with the clouds around and a light southwest wind.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will be deteriorating as the afternoon progresses as
rain showers move into the area. Ceilings and/or visbys will
lower to MVFR, then eventually Fuel Alternate. IFR ceilings will
be possible as well, but if that occurs, it likely wouldn`t
occur until this evening. Best chance for IFR restrictions this
evening will be at KBGM, KELM, and KITH. While guidance is
hinting at IFR ceilings at KAVP as well, the southeasterly
downsloping wind should prevent ceilings from dropping that low.

Conditions improve somewhat Thursday morning, but MVFR to Fuel
Alternate restrictions are expected to remain in place.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Lingering ceiling
restrictions possible, but showers will gradually end.

Friday...Rain showers likely with associated restrictions.

Saturday through Monday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible
at the Central NY terminals; mainly VFR at KAVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/JTC
NEAR TERM...BJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG