000
ACUS02 KWNS 200531
SWODY2
SPC AC 200530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected from the Great Basin southeastward
toward the southern Rockies on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An amplified, yet slowly progressive pattern - characterized by
mid-level troughs near the Appalachians and across the Desert
Southwest - will persist across the CONUS on Thursday.  Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Great Basin and
portions of the central and southern Rockies owing to cool air aloft
and weak destabilization during peak heating hours. High-resolution
guidance suggests that bands of convection will migrate
northeastward through the Four Corners region during peak heating
hours, with this convective potential spreading eastward and
southeastward toward central/southern New Mexico after dark.  Wind
profiles suggest a very low risk of damaging wind gusts and small
hail with activity in the Four Corners vicinity.  Additionally, a
very narrow, localized window for surface-based development will
develop in the 00-03Z time frame in south-central New Mexico and
vicinity, with shear profiles suggestive of updraft rotation pending
a favorable storm mode and sufficient low-level moistening.  This
window will be limited however, as the bulk of the isolated
thunderstorm threat in this region should develop as nocturnal
boundary layer decoupling commences with the loss of daytime
heating.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Cook.. 03/20/2019

$$