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000
FXUS66 KEKA 121116
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
416 AM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The cool-down is underway starting today and into the
weekend as amplified upper level trough with the prominent closed
low diving south within the base of the trough influencing our
weather for the next few days. Light snow is also expected generally
above 3000 feet mainly Saturday night into Sunday morning. A warming
trend with generally drier conditions is expected for the next work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As anticipated, the closed upper low is diving south
within a highly amplified trough heading toward the coast. A solid
band of mid-level sky cover streaming from the southwest in
advance of the aforementioned low is evident. Southeast wind will
increase today, and continues to look a bit stronger over Lake
County with the most likely gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Some
instability, strong shear and orographic lift could give eastern
Trinity some thunder chances this afternoon and tonight.
Precipitation amounts are near to slightly more than the previous
forecast. Convectively driven showers could push snow levels
below 3K feet the next couple nights, especially Saturday night.
Models are generally forecasting snow levels to be too high, as
seems to be on par for this season. These showers could put down
at least a skiff of snow on some higher roads near and above 2500
feet, but still generally not as impactful for most locations
compared to the height of winter. North winds are still expected
to sharply increase behind the exiting trough after the weekend.
Tuesday is still on tap for some particularly strong gusts over
the water and along the coast with the increased pressure
gradient. /MH

&&

.AVIATION...An approaching weak shortwave trough streams high cloud
over the area this morning while disrupting the marine
layer...allowing for primarily VFR to continue. Some remnants of the
MVFR ceilings from yesterday afternoon are still lingering, and may
briefly drift over the coastal terminals early this morning, however
these are expected to be short lived. Low cloud may spill into Ukiah
from the west early this morning, but confidence is low as to
whether or not this will occur, and if it does this cloud should be
short-lived and mix out by late morning.

Otherwise, VFR is expected to continue across the region through
most of today under high cloud. Some MVFR ceilings are possible this
afternoon as small scale eddies within the approaching low spin up
nearshore, but confidence is low with how and precisely when these
features will impact the coastal terminals. Have hinted at ceiling
heights in the coastal tafs for now. Light rain slowly spreads
across the region tonight, along with MVFR ceilings and vis in
Mendocino late tonight, possibly impacting KUKI.

&&

.MARINE...Winds continue to weaken this morning as a broad surface
low approaches and tracks southeast over the offshore waters. Wind
directions will become much more variable and chaotic through the
day as multiple small scale eddies spin up nearshore and a front
stalls offshore. Thus, wind directions are forecast to become much
more variable. For the most part, sub-advisory speeds are forecast
(less than 20kt), although brief and localized gusts up to 20 knots
are possible (<20% chance) with mesoscale circulations.

Potential (<30% chance) for localized or isolated gusts to 25 kt
will continue on Saturday as broad and diffuse low pressure remains
over the area, while the main core of the low center heads southward
into Central California. Potential (>60% chance) for widespread
northerly gusts 25-30 kt will increase on Sunday as surface high
pressure builds toward the coast from the west. Pressure gradient
tighten more by Monday and potential (>70% chance) for gusts to 35kt
will increase, mostly downwind of Cape Mendo.

A mid period WNW swell is forecast to continue to decay over the
next few days, while short period northerly have mostly filtered out
overnight. A fresh NW swell is expected this weekend, likely filling
in during Saturday. A steady build up of steep northerly wind waves
in conjunction with stronger northerly wind is anticipated for early
next week. DUG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png