Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250352
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1152 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

High pressure east of Indiana will continue to provide mainly dry
weather tonight across central Indiana. Rain chances will return
to central Indiana on Saturday and persist through the holiday
weekend. This is due to several upper level weather disturbances
expected to pass across Indiana this weekend...along with a pesky
and persistent stationary boundary lingering across Central
Indiana.

Chance for rain are expected to continue through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Going dry forecast appears on track with mostly clear skies in place
over central Indiana and a warm front north of the area. High
resolution output showing a little development over the southern
counties after around 9z, but looking at where it would be coming
from up from the south, the forcing looks weak and the cap continues
to look pretty strong so will leave out any showers through the
overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s are on track, and wind
should stay up enough to preclude any fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Confidence for rain during this period has increased.

GFS and NAM now show an flattening out of the upper flow from
Saturday through Monday. This results in several short waves
passing across Indiana through Monday. Meanwhile within the lower
levels a stationary frontal boundary is expected to bisect the
state for much of the period. Forecast soundings show convective
temperatures able to be reached each day through Monday. Each
afternoon CAPE exceeds 2000 J/KG and Pwats surge over 1.5 inches.
Should several rounds of precip occur...this ongoing pattern of
multiple short waves passing across our stationary front could
lead to a flash flooding threat.

Thus precip chances will be needed each afternoon and evening
through Monday. Confidence remains to be growing for precip
chances on Sunday afternoon and the GFS and NAM both are hinting
at an organized short wave approaching Indiana during the
afternoon hours.

Will trend lows warmer than the model blends given the expected
clouds...rain and humid air mass. Will stick close on highs
expect across the southern parts of the forecast area which will
be located deeper within the warm sector. Will trend a little warm
at those spots on highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Showers will become confined to the northeast quadrant of central
Indiana as a warm front pushes northward on Monday night. At that
point, dry conditions will prevail for Tuesday, but central
Indiana will fall into a warm sector and strong southwest winds
will push daytime highs into the mid to upper 80s. At that point,
focus will turn to shower and thunderstorm chances through mid
week as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will
fall closer to normal for Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of
that front.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 250600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1148 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

VFR through the period. Mostly clear skies overnight, with some
chances for showers and storms moving into the sites by afternoon.
Winds will be around 5 to 10 kts through the overnight out of 190
to 220, shifting to 210 to 240 during the morning and picking up
gusts to around 20 to 25 kts during the late morning and through
the afternoon hours. Diurnal cu around 3500 to 5000 ft can be
expected during the late morning and through the rest of the day
Saturday. Winds will decrease Saturday night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP



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