Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
644 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An upper low will move into the Smoky Mountains tonight as a cold
front drops southeast across central Indiana. This will result in
lingering showers through tonight.

Then, surface high pressure will bring dry weather back through
Thursday night. After that, another low pressure system will bring
more showers to the area Friday. The rest of the upcoming weekend
and early early next week will see warmer temperatures and dry


.NEAR TERM /Remainder of Tonight through Tonight/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Main focus for the near term will be on PoPs.

Models agree that a sharp Manitoba trough will kick a western
Tennessee Valley upper low to the Smoky Mountains late today and
tonight as the former pivots across the northern Great Lakes. This
will result in the showers ending from west to east overnight.

However, before then, lingering showers will continue through this
evening, especially over our southeastern counties where the deeper
moisture and lift reside ahead of the upper low.

Currently, radar was showing an area of showers moving northwest
into Jackson and Jennings counties with isolated very light showers
elsewhere over central Indiana. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh
brings increased coverage into our southeastern counties toward 12z
as well. So, will go with likely PoPs near and west of I-69 and I-65
this morning and chance PoPs elsewhere and the rest of the period.

With thick clouds and showers around and cool low level thermals,
temperatures will once again be below normal today with highs mostly
in the 50s, per the blend. A cold front associated with the Canadian
trough will move through overnight as well and allow overnight lows
to reach the middle 40s over northeastern sections of the forecast


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday night/...

Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Main focus for the short term will be on cloud cover and

Models in good agreement that surface high pressure will be over the
forecast area, in the wake of the aforementioned cold front, through
Thursday night. Model rh time sections were showing much drier air
moving in aloft from the northwest on Wednesday with some lingering
but thinning low level moisture. Cu development progs and the model
rh time sections suggest there will only be some high clouds around
and perhaps some cu far southeast Wednesday and mostly just high
cloud thereafter. Yet another wave in the mean eastern trough looks
like it will pass too far to the south on Wednesday for any showers
to effect our southern counties.

Cold advection with breezy northwest winds supports the colder MET
and blend temperatures on Wednesday despite some sunshine. Look for
below normal highs in the upper 50s and middle 60s with good
confidence to within a few degrees. With mostly clear skies,
temperatures could get down to the middle and upper 30s Wednesday
night. Finally, with more sunshine and winds shifting to the south,
good confidence highs Thursday will get close to normal in the lower
and middle 60s.


.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...

Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An upper wave passing through central Indiana will bring rain
chances to the area on Friday. By Friday night though models are in
good agreement that the wave will be east of the area and dry high
pressure will build back into place. With upper ridging and surface
high pressure in control the rest of the long term should be dry.
Southwesterly flow will establish itself at the end of the long term
as the ridge axis gets just east of the area, and this should allow
temperatures to warm to above normal and adjusted consensus
temperatures up to account for this. Given model agreement on the
upper pattern, moderate to high confidence of mainly dry conditions
for the weekend (after Friday) and increasing temperatures with time.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 241200z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 636 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An upper level low pressure system moving through central Indiana
will keep restrictions in place at the TAF sites today, mainly
from lowered ceilings. MVFR to IFR ceilings should be in place at
issuance time, and with the low close to the area models are
showing ceilings possibly dropping even a bit more later this
afternoon. Expect to see off and on showers at the sites today as
well, but these may be light enough to produce no visibility
restrictions or just brief drops to MVFR vsbys. Ceilings could
come up a bit late this afternoon/evening due to heating, but then
should drop again overnight with ample low level moisture in
place. Winds will shift around from northeasterly this morning to
northerly tonight, and could see a few gusts but nothing worthy of
including in the TAFs at this time.




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