Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140754
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

A wet and rainy start to the weekend is expected. Low pressure
over Texas and Louisiana is expected to push northeast toward
Indiana and cross the Ohio Valley through Saturday Night. This
will result in a rainy start to the weekend as the low approaches
and passes.

Dry weather is expected to arrive on Sunday and last into early
next work week as high pressure builds across the area from the
plains state. Above normal temperatures are expected into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure in
place near the LA/TX state line. A poorly defined warm front
extended northward from the low...across Arkansas to Illinois and
western Indiana. A ridge of high pressure was found across the
western plains and upper midwest. GOES16 shows plentiful cloud
cover extending northward ahead of the approaching low. Radar
shows an area of showers within a rather large deformation zone
stretching from TX to ne IL...with more scattered precip ahead of
the low across the deep south. Southeasterly flow was in place
across the forecast area with dew point temps in the upper 30 and
lower 40s.

The low is expected to make slow progress east today as surface
flow across Indiana becomes more northeasterly. 290K GFS
Isentropic surface shows the development of good lift arriving
today with specific humidities over 6 g/kg. Forecast soundings and
Time heights also shows a saturated column through much of the
day with pwats near 0.90. Precip type will clearly be rain as
forecast soundings show a thick layer in the lower levels above
freezing. Thus will trend pops at or above the forecast builder
blends today. Given the expected clouds and rain...will trend
highs at or below the forecast builder blends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

The low pressure system to the south appears to take its sweet
time passing through the region tonight through Saturday Night.
The GFS and NAM show the surface low reaching Tennessee and
Kentucky by Saturday afternoon...all the while keeping plenty of
wrap around moisture and cyclonic flow in place across Indiana.
Again Time heights and Forecast soundings remain quite
saturated...and central Indiana appears to be in a favorable
location for wrap around precip on the NW side of the passing low
to the south. Thus with all the plentiful ingredients in
play...will trend pops at or above the forecast builder blends
through Saturday Night. Given the expected rain...will trend the
lows at or above the the blends and highs cooler.

The GFS and NAM suggest the low will finally reach the Virginias
on Sunday morning. As Sunday progresses...cyclonic flow across
Indiana will begin to wane as high pressure and ridging across the
plains is suggested to build eastward into Indiana. Forecast
soundings on Sunday and Sunday night suggest strong subsidence as
the column dries out significantly. Isentropic surfaces also
suggest downglide and drying. Thus will trend toward a partly
cloudy sky then and stick close to the forecast builder blends as
strong temperature advection is not presently indicated at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Issued at 254 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

Long term period to be characterized by a messy upper level
pattern across the country, but surface high pressure looks to
keep most of the week dry across central Indiana. Models struggle
to agree on details, but looks like the best chance for
precipitation, such as it is, will come late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, with mainly rain, although surface temperatures
may be cool enough to allow for brief mixing of rain and snow.

Consensus intialization seemed reasonable given the model
differences and required only minor adjustments.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 14/06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

Periodic rain showers will affect the TAF sites at times
throughout the period as an area of low pressure tracks through
the Tennessee Valley. Conditions will generally fluctuate between
VFR and MVFR throughout the period, but cannot entirely rule out
brief periods of IFR ceilings this morning, either. Meanwhile,
winds will start out light and variable, then become primarily
northeasterly at 10 to 12 kts with gusts up to 19 kts late in the
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...TDUD



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