Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 180823
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
422 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

High pressure is expected across the area today. A cold front is
expected to drop south from the Great Lakes around Tuesday,
eventually stalling out in the vicinity by the later parts of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Model data suggest air mass will continue to become increasingly
capped today as mid level temperature ridge moves into the area this
afternoon. Finer scale model data suggest some potential for
isolated air mass type convection near peak heating today as
convective temperatures are within reach. However, due to the
strengthening cap and lack of a focus, convective chances are too
low to mention in the forecast at this time. Will keep the forecast
dry today.

Today`s highs may be a little warmer than they have been, given the
low and mid level temperature ridge moving in. As a result, will be
issuing a heat advisory for this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2016

Heat ridge expected to get suppressed to the south with time as
significant short wave energy digs into New England towards the
middle of the week.

Model data suggest a cold front off to the north will approach the
far northern zones late tonight. Some enhanced flow at the 850mb
level suggests potential for nocturnal convection to spread into the
northern and possibly central zones tonight, although a lingering
cap may serve to suppress convection. Will bring in some chance PoPs
into the northern zones tonight, and small chance PoPs over the
central zones for late tonight.

Operational and ensemble data in fairly good agreement in sagging
frontal zone into the southern zones or near the Ohio River by late
Wednesday night, although convective outflows may result in a more
diffuse frontal zone by that time. Will keep PoPs in the forecast
for the rest of the short term.

Progged precipitable waters in the 1.75-2.00 inch range suggest
heavy rain may become a threat, especially from Tuesday night into
Wednesday night, coinciding with best 850mb flow.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance over the next couple of days looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

The long term will be unsettled with a surface front somewhere in
the vicinity and upper waves moving through as a large upper trough
makes its way from the plains to the east coast. Models are in good
agreement on this general pattern but differ a bit on timing of
individual waves. They agree on the availability of instability
though. Thus will include chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the long term. Temperatures will run near or just above
normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/09Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period with southwest winds of 6 to 11 kts. Outside chance brief
MVFR fog could develop near daybreak but not confident enough to
include at this point.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD/CP


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