Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 170346
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1146 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A dry and cool pattern (below normal temperatures) will be in
place for the majority of the forecast period. So, focus will be
on frost potential, which is possible again early Thursday
morning. Otherwise, the only other highlight will be rain chances
on Friday and Saturday with a frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 940 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

No changes necessary to forecast. Previous discussion follows...

High confidence in dry conditions for the duration of the near
term period with high pressure over the northeast U.S. and Ohio
Valley. A cold front is expected to pass through central Indiana
tonight, but there will be no moisture associated with it. So,
only expect a shift in wind direction. Elsewhere, low pressure
will be rotating over the desert Southwest.

Overnight lows will continue to be below average again tonight
(upper 30s), but high enough winds should prevent any frost
concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Friday/...

Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

The main focus of the short term period will be widespread frost
potential again tomorrow night as well as rain showers on
Friday.

Dry conditions can be expected through Thursday night, and this
continues to be a high confidence forecast. Widespread frost will
return tomorrow night though as temperatures dip into the low 30s
and winds become lighter. The only chance for rain during the
period will be on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front and
upper wave. No changes were made to the blended initialization.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Monday Night/...

Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Extended period begins with a weak upper trough approaching from the
west, just ahead of a stronger upper trough pushing toward the
forecast area from the northwest. Some rain showers look to remain
across our southeast counties Friday evening as the initial trough
finishes its slide through the area. The stronger upper trough then
approaches on the heels of the initial trough...sending a cold front
through the area Saturday morning. Moisture appears to be lacking
along and ahead of the front after the showers occurred with the
initial system Friday and Friday night. The best chance to see
showers with the front looks like it will be to the north and east
as it passes through...where a bit more moisture may be realized. As
this stronger upper system digs a bit further south into the Ohio
River Valley on Saturday and Saturday evening...some additional
showers look to develop as the upper disturbance rotates through
the area. Right now, it appears as if most of this precipitation
will fall as rain...as is forecast. However, I can not completely
rule out a wintry mix as the system departs the area late
Saturday/early Sunday. High pressure then filters in...keeping the
area dry through the remainder of the period.

Below normal temps will look to continue with highs in the Low to
Mid 50s and lows, after the mid 40s Friday night, in the 30s. The
coolest air of the extended is forecast for Sunday and Sunday night
after the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 170600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1144 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

VFR through the period. Winds will shift directions overnight as a
dry cold front moves through. Only a few cirrus through the
period, and no fog expected with winds staying up.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...CP


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