Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220904
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
404 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.UPDATE...

The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short Term sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

A strong upper level trough moving out of the desert southwest
will induce lee cyclogenesis tonight in the central high
plains/panhandles region. This system will strengthen rapidly and
move into the Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing widespread
rainfall and a chance for thunderstorms during the first portion
of the weekend, followed by a cooldown and windy weather on
Sunday. Next week looks to be near normal for the time of year
with largely zonal flow in place across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Precipitation is ongoing this morning to our south along the
midlevel frontal zone, and expect this activity to remain to our
south through the day. Should see a steady increase in mid and
high cloud ahead of the developing system well to our west.

Warm advection will begin to ramp up today, and this should push
high temperatures about 4-5 degrees warmer today than yesterday,
even with the gradual increase in cloud cover. Most areas will top
out somewhere in the 40s, although the 50 degree mark may sneak
into the southwestern area this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Forecast foci in the short term include rain chances, thunder
potential, severe weather potential, and windy conditions on
Sunday.

Will confine highest pops overnight to the last few hours of the
period as isentropic lift ramps up around that time. Categorical
pops will be required most areas early Saturday, and the entire
area Saturday afternoon and evening, ramping down late Saturday
night into Sunday as the cold front sweeps through the area.

Day 2 outlook has pulled back on severe threat across our CWA and
this is reasonable as focus is narrowing in on the south central
Mississippi valley. Cannot entirely rule out an isolated severe
storm but given the difficulty of significant destabilization this
far north agree with the pullback.

There will still be a good chance for some thunder, mainly
Saturday afternoon and evening, given the strength of the system,
and the deeper storms will have the potential to mix down some of
the 50-60KT low level jet crossing the area ahead of the front
late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening, but an organized
severe threat will be difficult to come by.

Focus then shifts to winds on Sunday as the cold front sweeps
through the area and a very strong surface pressure gradient is
present over the area. 925 mb winds at 40-50KT and BUFKIT momentum
transfer progs suggest wind gusts will begin to ramp up late
Saturday night, with gusts nudging above 30KT, increasing to near
40KT during the day on Sunday, particularly central and north. A
wind advisory will likely be needed across the entire area, but
will hold off for now given it`s fifth period. High wind warning
is not entirely out of the question, but it is awfully hard to
come by 50KT nonconvective gusts with enough coverage and
frequency to support warning.

Made adjustments to blend temperatures based on temp advection
progs and low level thicknesses. Blend highs on Saturday tracked
well with surface wetbulb progs and were generally left as is.
Temperatures may fall steadily Sunday afternoon as the cold front
continues to depart.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 221 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Confidence in this forecast period is low. The ECMWF suggests
strong surface high pressure in place across Indiana...spilling
and building southeast from the northern plains states. This high
appears to be a big player in the forecast next week providing
cold air advection upon arrival on Monday and Tuesday...before
wrap around return flow starts on late Thursday. Meanwhile
aloft...W-NW flow appears in place and a few minor shower waves
look to pass...mainly on Wednesday and again on Thursday. With
surface moisture appearing suspect...not to mention high pressure
suggest in place at the surface...confidence for precip is low at
this time. However...the forecast builder once again included
pops. Thus will keep these low chc pops for now. However...overall
a mainly dry and cold week looks in store next week with the cold
Canadian air mass dropping into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220900Z IND Taf Update/...

VFR conditions continue. No significant changes to the ongoing
Taf.

Previous Discussion Below

/Discussion for the 22/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1144 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the TAF period due
to high pressure over the Ohio Valley. However, KIND could start
seeing some MVFR conditions late in the period ahead of the next
system. Meanwhile, winds will start out northeasterly, then slowly
veer to the southeast. Sustained speeds will range between 4 to 8
kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP


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