Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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863
FXUS63 KIND 061454
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
954 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

A weak upper low pressure system will move across the South today as
a cold front drops southeast across central Indiana this morning. A
few showers are possible over southern parts of central Indiana as a
result. After that, high pressure will provide dry weather with
slightly above normal temperatures through Sunday morning.

A stronger system is expected to move through the area early to
middle parts of next week. This system will bring mainly rain to the
area starting late Sunday, however snow is possible in the wake of
the next system Monday night into Tuesday. Cold temperatures and dry
weather will follow in the wake of this system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 954 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Light rain and sprinkles are now confined to areas near and south
of I-70 as a cold front sweeps across the area. There is an axis
of brief clearing immediately behind the front with a thick
stratus expanding quickly into the region behind that. 1430Z
temperatures ranged from the upper 30s north to mid and upper 40s
further south.

Overall forecast for the rest of the day is in good shape. Will
see the light rain and sprinkles continue to shift south with the
front over the next few hours with precipitation entirely out of
the forecast area by early afternoon. Skies will remain mostly
cloudy into the afternoon but a more progressive push of drier air
and subsidence should finally enable some clearing and sunshine
for the second half of the afternoon.

The main story for the rest of the day however will be the
temperatures as a nice surge of cold advection will promote
falling temps for most of the rest of the day. Likely to see gusty
northerly flow over the next few hours directly behind the frontal
passage with winds lightening later today. Much of the forecast
area will fall into the 30s by late afternoon.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Good confidence in dry weather, little cloud cover and slightly
above normal temperatures tonight through Saturday night under the
influence of surface high pressure. Then, upper waves in fast
southwest flow aloft and increasing return flow will result in
increasing cloudiness Saturday night and Sunday morning and
increasing chances of rain late Sunday and Sunday night.

With warm advection ramping up, look for well above normal highs in
the upper 40s and lower 50s on Sunday per the blend. Temperatures
will not drop much either Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Issued at 212 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

The coming work week looks to be active early and late with a
break due to a mid week Arctic high pressure system. The vast
majority of the early week precipitation will fall as rain, with
the potential for a few snowflakes on the back end Monday night
into Tuesday. Chances very late in the period will be lower but
more likely to fall as snow after the Arctic intrusion mid week
brings temperatures down.

Blended initialization was reasonable and required only minor
adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 061500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 954 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Minor tweaks based on current ceilings and winds...otherwise no
changes needed for mid morning update. 12Z discussion follows.

Good confidence in VFR conditions through most of the TAF period.
However, there could be MVFR ceilings at times 15z-18z. Also, KBMG
could see a few rain showers through 17z as a cold front approaches.
Showers were already just south of Bloomington and High Resolution
Rapid Refresh supports shower chances there and possibly further at
KIND and KHUF.

The cold front will result in a wind shift to the northwest and then
north with wind speeds 10 knots. However, KLAF could see a little
higher wind with gusts to 20 knots possible 15z-17z. Winds will
become light and variable after 00z Saturday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...MK/Ryan



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