Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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975
FXUS63 KIND 142053
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
453 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

A frontal system is expected to move into the area for the latter
parts of the week. This front is expected to drift off to the south
by late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Model data suggest fringes of organized lift from Plains upper low
will begin moving into the southwest zones around 150800Z. Will
bring in chance PoPs to these area during the pre dawn hours of
Wednesday.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight looks
reasonable, so little if any adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Model data suggest an upper low, currently over the Plains, will
shear out across the local area Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, however general upper troughing will remain through Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected during this period under the
approaching upper low. At the surface, a cold front is expected
to move into the area on Thursday, eventually stalling out over
central or southern Indiana by Friday.

A couple of upper disturbances evident in the model data may serve
to enhance precipitation potential and rainfall amounts. One wave
looks to move through Wednesday afternoon, and another Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, associated with 30 kt low level jet.
Will time the highest PoPs with these waves. Heavy amounts of
rain still look possible, especially from Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning, coinciding with precipitable waters near or in
excess of 2 inches and the 850mb jet.

Will keep PoPs going from later in the day Thursday through Friday
in association with the cold front. However, convective outflows may
push the effective boundary and heavier rain threat south of the
local area by that time.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs
and lows over the next couple of days, so won`t stray too far
from them.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night Through Tuesday)...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

A couple of upper troughs and surface fronts will bring rain chances
to much of the long term period.

The first trough and front will continue the rain chances from late
in the work week into the first half of the weekend.

The models have come into better agreement, and it now appears that
Sunday will be dry with brief upper ridging between the troughs.

The next trough will bring more rain on Monday, with lingering
chances into Tuesday.

Temperatures will be near to a little below normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 14/21Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 452 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Update...
No changes.

Previous Discussion...
VFR conditions expected through the period.

Scattered cumulus will continue this afternoon, then diminish after
sunset. Mid and high clouds will then increase through the night as
a system approaches. Ceilings will continue to lower Wednesday
morning, but they should remain VFR.

Scattered showers will move into the western sites overnight,
eventually moving into the eastern sites during the daylight hours
Wednesday morning. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm, but coverage will
be too low to mention in the TAFs.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/TDUD



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