Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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308 FXUS64 KMAF 132258 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 558 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Warm, quiet, and mostly sunny accurately sums up the short term pretty well as weak ridging builds in over the next 24 hours. Despite a weak cold front that moved through this morning, temperatures have warmed up well into the 80s and low 90s this afternoon under full sunshine. Winds quickly veer to easterly this evening, aiding in some moisture return through the west-central Permian Basin and resharpening up a dryline by Tuesday morning. The dryline surges eastward in the late-morning, but a shower/storm or two could get going across the far eastern Permian Basin in the afternoon-severe weather is not expected with any storms. High temperatures will be noticeably warmer under the building ridge, with many locations topping out in the low to mid 90s. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will translate eastward across the north-central Plains, while southwest flow aloft persists over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Deterministic and cluster analysis indicate that beneath the aforementioned trough and embedded in the southwesterly flow, a subtle disturbance will move through the region during the late afternoon and early evening, acting as a forcing mechanism for convection. Additionally, the dryline will make its return on Wednesday afternoon, with low-level RH progs indicating the dryline sharpening up in the vicinity of the Lea/Eddy county line in New Mexico southeastward toward the Stockton Plateau and down into the Big Bend. Heating and diurnal mixing alone look to be enough to facilitate convective initiation Wednesday afternoon along the dryline and over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas, with instability on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg realized as temperatures climb into the lower to middle 90s for most, with 80s confined to the mountain areas. While shear will be limited and coverage will be spotty, storms that develop could become strong to severe, capable of mainly a hail and wind threat, with the wind threat increasing through the evening as storms become more outflow- driven as the dryline mixes eastward. Into the evening as the dryline begins retreating and the low-level jet ramps up, additional development is possible across eastern areas. Have introduced a low (10-30%) probability mention of severe storms across the far eastern Permian Basin to account for this, though there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the evolution of convective trends, which will be ironed out in later forecast issuances. A cold front extending from the aforementioned northern Plains trough moves into the region Thursday, yielding continued rain chances across northern areas, as well as cooler temperatures, especially for locations north of I-10. Highs will top out in the 80s and lower 90s for most, with 100s along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Temperatures Friday will be at least a few degrees cooler than Thursday, owing to light northerly flow and continued cold/cool advection for much of the day. Storms remain possible across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau on Thursday, but currently have only carried a low (15-20%) chance in these areas, owing to the post-frontal air mass and gradually drying boundary layer. A big change arrives for the weekend as temperatures rapidly rebound above normal, with the cooler temperatures of Thursday and Friday becoming mere memories. Quasi-zonal flow will quickly transition to mid-level ridging over the region, allowing for highs to climb into the 90s for most on Saturday, and into the lower 100s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures tick up even further Sunday, with mid 90s and lower 100s expected region-wide, with highs in the mid 90s in the mountains and over 110F forecast in the Big Bend yielding our first round of Heat Advisory conditions for the season. Stay tuned. JP && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light return flow will resume by late morning Tuesday. Forecast soundings develop a cu field most terminals by late morning, w/bases 4.5-10kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 57 94 66 92 / 0 10 0 20 Carlsbad 56 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 64 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 62 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 30 Guadalupe Pass 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 54 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 20 Marfa 50 89 55 88 / 0 0 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 59 93 67 91 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 60 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 59 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...44