Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 181119

National Weather Service Jackson KY
719 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 709 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

High pressure is taking hold of the region from the north,
allowing much drier air into the region. This is evident on
satellite as clouds erode away from the north across the CWA.
Expect this trend to continue throughout the first half of the
day, with mostly sunny skies still expected for the second half.
Current sky grids may be a little too high on clouds across the
far north this hour, but will quickly catch up to the current
satellite trends in the next hour or two. Loaded in the latest
observations for temps, dew points, and winds to make sure the
near term forecast was on track with the current conditions. All
updates were published and sent to NDFD/web.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

A broad area of high pressure is building into the region from the
NW early this morning. This will continue to advect in drier air,
which will eventually erode away the lingering llvl cloud deck from
north to south through this morning and early afternoon. Generally
easterly winds and clear skies will be on tap for the afternoon,
with temperatures forecast to rise to near 60 in most locations
under the abundant sunshine.

High pressure will continue into the first part of the overnight as
well, with some of the deeper eastern valleys expected to drop off
into the mid and upper 30s early on. However, clouds will begin
filling back in from the south for the second half of the night as a
surface low pressure system shifts eastward into the southern
Mississippi Valley and a warm front advects northward through the
deep south. This will result in southerly flow across the TN valley
and portions of southeast KY, increasing the moisture flow into the
region and keeping mild temperatures in place. Moisture will
continue to increase throughout the day Monday as the low pressure
system continues its eastward track into the TN valley and western
KY by the afternoon.

Expect precip chances to begin creeping into the SW portion of the
CWA after 6Z tonight, with precip slowly shifting northward across
the entire CWA and become widespread in nature by Monday afternoon.
Most of eastern KY will be on the NE side of this passing system
with abundant moisture but little instability. However, the southern
extent of the CWA may be able to feed into some of the better
instability to our south. As such, included thunder in the forecast
for the afternoon Monday, but limited to areas generally along and
south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. While SPC does nudge the Day 2
Marginal Risk into Wayne County, instability parameters for KSME and
KLOZ GFS soundings still seem quite limited. This is partly due to
the lack of heating, with high temperatures generally in the 50s
to around 60, which will not be as conducive to priming the
atmosphere for lift as was the case in this last event. Overall,
don`t see much concern for numerous thunderstorms or even for
severe convective activity. Kept thunder mention to isolated, as
did LMK to our west and MRX to our south. The strong pump of
moisture into the region from the Gulf and Atlantic could result
in some good downpours Monday afternoon though, with up to a half
of an inch of QPF possible (some storms could put down locally
higher amounts) between 18 and 0Z in the SW portion of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Active weather will continue across eastern Kentucky next week,
as the long wave pattern remains amplified, but fairly
progressive. Wet conditions will be in place Monday night, as a
surface low pressure system moves across the Tennessee Valley.

Northwest flow will linger behind the departed low pressure on
Tuesday, with a deepening trough to lay out across the eastern
CONUS through mid-week. Precipitation will linger across eastern
Kentucky, with colder air allowing for a snow threat, particularly
across the higher terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Will continue to generalize the impacts, as there is still plenty
of time to look for better model consensus with regards to the
temperature profile.

Drier conditions will work in by Wednesday evening, as ridging
builds in from the west. Benign conditions will hold on through
at least early Friday, before the next potential system moves in
by late in the day. Still favoring a slower solution here, so did
undercut the blended model guidance for the POPs, holding back the
better chances until Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
average below normal through most of next week, especially
Wednesday and Thursday. Near normal readings will return by


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)

High pressure is moving in from the NW, with dry air advection
quickly eroding away the llvl cloud deck plaguing most of the TAF
sites early this morning. KSYM has cleared out according to the
latest satellite imagery, with KJKL and KSJS expected to clear
out from MVFR conditions between 12 and 13Z. MVFR conditions will
hold on at the far southern TAF sites (KSME and KLOZ) through much
of the morning hours before the dry air finally erodes away the
clouds here. By afternoon, all sites should be mostly clear and
remain so into the first part of the overnight. Another low
pressure system approaching from the southeast will result in
an influx of moisture into the region to round out the period.
BKN to OVC mid level cloud decks will move back in from south to
north generally between 6 and 9Z, but should remain VFR until
after the end of the TAF period. Shower chances may also move into
the far southern portion of the state during this time, so
included VCSH at KSME and KLOZ. Winds will generally be light and
variable through the forecast period at all sites.




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