Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
428 FXUS62 KKEY 131847 CCA AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Key West FL 247 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, PREV DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 While VFR conditions will be prevailing at both EYW and MTH for the 18Z TAF, periods of short- lived MVFR CIGs will be possible across the terminals. Expecting isolated thunderstorms to develop in and around the vicinity of the terminals, especially EYW. Near surface winds will be below 10 knots and variable away from showers. Expect a brief lull in showers in the evening before more widespread shower development becomes more likely by 09 UTC. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, winds became variable across the Florida Keys earlier today as the influence of high pressure wanes. Shower coverage is forecast to gradually increase tonight as additional moisture is directed across the CWA. Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. Initially, the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col region resulting in mainly variable breezes through Monday night. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week. Also, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the early to middle part of the week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ...Corrected Issue Time... Issued at 437 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 High pressure remains in control of the Florida Keys weather through tonight. GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows PWAT values ranging from 1.75 inches to 1.95 inches throughout the area. Therefore, even though we have high pressure largely in control, there is plenty of moisture throughout the area. This can lead to the threat for some showers and even thunderstorms at any point in time. Therefore, above normal rain chances remain in place for today and tonight with 40% and 50% respectively. Any activity today is largely expected to form off any residual boundaries or mesoscale processes. For tonight, showers and thunderstorms that form on the mainland are expected to drift southward potentially impacting parts of the Island Chain, especially the Upper Keys. Any storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Monday through Wednesday, the focus will mainly be on the 20% area for tropical development within the next 7 days that the NHC- National Hurricane Center has highlighted across the northern Gulf. At most, a weak area of low pressure is expected to slowly meander southward from off the Georgia coastline and then retrograde back to the west through mid week. As a result, bouts of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be initiated each day as the system slowly moves through the area. Most of the activity the Keys could see may initially form on the mainland and then drift southward through the Keys. Any storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Due to this, the forecast has been drastically changed from previous packages. There is now a 60% chance for rain from Monday through Tuesday with 50% for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Thunder has also been increased from slight chance to chance as confidence increases for a much wetter and stormier period for the early to middle part of the week. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has the Keys highlighted in a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for the Monday through Tuesday time period. A more typical summer time pattern returns for mid to late week and into the first half of the weekend. High pressure over the Atlantic builds into Florida bringing a return to the east to southeasterlies and moisture undulations around the western periphery of the high. As a result, expect decreasing rain chances with 40% for Wednesday night before rain chances return to around normal for the remainder of the extended which is near 30%. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest