720
FXUS62 KMFL 061651
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic
will continue to be the main synoptic feature in the weather
pattern across South Florida through the rest of this afternoon
and into Tuesday. The position of the surface high will allow for
the southeasterly wind flow to continue during this time frame.
With just enough lower level moisture in place, sea breeze
development this afternoon and then again on Tuesday afternoon
will provide enough lift and support for isolated shower and
thunderstorm development. The highest chances will remain over
interior portions of Southwest Florida where the Atlantic and Gulf
sea breeze boundaries interact with each other. With plenty of
mid to upper level dry air in place, this will help to inhibit
strong thunderstorm development, however, locally heavy downpours
cannot be ruled out with any storm. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will diminsh over the interior with the loss of diurnal
heating during the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee
region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. High
temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid 80s across the
east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior
portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually weaken
and shift southeast by the mid-week period, resulting in initially
easterly low level flow veering more southeasterly while decreasing
in magnitude. At the mid-levels, ridging over the GOM will build
northeastward with the ridge axis largely positioned overhead by
Wed/Thursday. Friday into Saturday the aforementioned ridge will
flatten in response to a northern branch shortwave shifting into
the eastern US, while surface low pressure and its associated cold
front will also move towards the area.

In terms of rain chances, Wednesday-Friday will likely be completely
dry thanks to a ridge building nearly overhead. The next notable rain
chances come ahead of the aforementioned cold front next weekend on
Saturday depending on the progression of the parent low. Given that
the mid-lvl wave is passing well to our north, would expect the boundary
to be frontolytic by the time it reaches SFL, largely maintaining
PoPs only in the 15-30% for Saturday.

As low level flow begins to attain a more southerly and southwesterly
component through the end of the week, temperatures will warm over
the area. Thursday-Saturday will likely be the warmest stretch of
the year thus far with widespread highs in the 90s, with mid 90s
possible (especially over the Interior). Although there should be some
some mixing down of drier air aloft, peak heat indices could also
reach triple digits for the first time in 2024 for portions of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon across the east
coast terminals and they will be gusty at times. Isolated shower
and storms will be possible mainly over interior portions of
Southwest Florida and they should stay away from most of the
terminals. The exception to this will be at KAPF, where some
shower activity could pass nearby late this afternoon into the
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place
through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest of
the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon
across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end
of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become
more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or
less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet
or less across the Gulf waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore
winds continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  86  75  87 /  10  20   0  10
West Kendall     73  87  72  90 /  10  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        74  87  74  90 /  10  20   0  10
Homestead        74  86  74  87 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  85  75  86 /  10  20  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  74  86  74  87 /  10  20   0  10
Pembroke Pines   74  88  75  90 /  10  20   0  10
West Palm Beach  72  86  72  88 /  10  20   0  10
Boca Raton       74  87  73  88 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           72  88  74  90 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CWC