Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 210044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
844 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

A deep layered southeast to southerly wind flow between high
pressure over the Atlantic and a mid and upper level trough
over the east-central Gulf of Mexico will continue to pull
deep tropical moisture (PW`s in the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range)
over the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight with
isolated to scattered showers possible at any time under
cloudy skies. It will be a mild night with low temperatures
bottoming out around 70. The current forecast is in good
shape with no evening update required at this time.
Additional showers and isolated storms along with some
locally heavy rain in some locations will be possible over
the forecast area on Monday as deep layered moisture remains
in place over the region.


Mainly MVFR cigs with brief IFR cigs will persist at all
area terminals tonight, with intermittent VFR. Isolated to
scattered showers can be expected at just about any time
and have handled with VCSH for now, with MVFR/IFR vsbys
possible with any shra. On Monday MVFR cigs will continue
with lower IFR cigs/vsbys likely after 15Z as shra and
isolated tsra coverage again increases across the region and
have depicted prevailing shra after 18Z with some tsra in
the vicinity. East-southeast winds in the 6 to 8 knot range
will prevail with higher gusts possible in the vicinity of


Southeast to south winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet
or less will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of
tonight with deep layered moisture supporting scattered
showers and isolated storms. Ongoing forecast is on track
with no changes expected in the next update around 9 PM.

Heavy rainfall over the last week as well as today has
caused area rivers to rise with the Manatee River near
Myakka Head, the Alafia River at Lithia, and Horse Creek
near Arcadia now in minor flooding. With additional heavy
rainfall possible over the next few days other area rivers
and streams around the region may approach flood stage with
additional river flood warnings a possibility. All residents
living along rivers or faster flowing streams should remain
alert for any rapid rises in water levels and be ready to
move to higher ground if flooding is observed.


Gulf waters...None.


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