022
FXUS62 KTBW 151742
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
142 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Invest 93 continues to move onto the east coast of FL and will
continue its journey west across FL today and tonight.  NHC has
given the system a 40% chance of development once it moves into the
Gulf over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, main
concern the next couple of days will be rainfall. The Weather
Prediction Center has tagged most of the forecast area with a Slight
Risk (at least 15%) of excessive rainfall. Meaning some areas may
get multiple rounds of rain, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
A flood watch is in place till 11pm this evening, because of the
expected rainfall. Though conditions are currently quiet, rain and
storms are still expected to fill in this afternoon into the
evening. Some storms could have strong, gusty winds and frequent
lightning. As always, be sure to have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.

Unsettled conditions continue for the next couple of days as the
system makes its way into the Gulf. Towards the weekend we shift
back to a more typical summertime pattern as southeasterly flow
settles back in. Temperatures heat back up by the end of the
week with the later afternoon shower and storm coverage expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. Invest 93 will
continue to move west over FL bringing periods of showers and storms
later this afternoon into the evening. Quiet, VFR conditions return
overnight. Showers and storms return tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate for the next couple
of days as Invest 93 moves over FL into the Gulf. Winds will begin
to increase this evening and stay elevated. Winds finally start to
subside Friday into the weekend as the low pressure system moves
further away from the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Plenty of moisture over the area will keep fire weather hazards
low. Only concern will be high dispersions Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  78  92 /  60  80  40  80
FMY  76  91  76  93 /  50  70  40  80
GIF  74  92  76  93 /  40  80  20  80
SRQ  76  91  75  92 /  60  70  50  80
BKV  71  92  72  92 /  60  80  40  80
SPG  77  88  78  90 /  60  70  50  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Hardee-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley