543
FXUS65 KBOI 070224
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
824 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...No change to current forecast. Hottest day still
Tuesday, then noticeably cooler by Thursday. Warming again into
next weekend but not as hot as Tuesday. Latest models continue
to show mid/high level moisture in eastern OR Tuesday, enough
for clouds and a slight (10-20%) chance of high-based
thunderstorms, already in our forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: variable
less than 10 kt, becoming W-NW 5-10 kt Monday afternoon, except
N-NE 5-15 kt along the NV border. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W-NW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable less than 6 kt, becoming W-NW
5-10 kt Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...The heat will
build through Tuesday as circulation around a closed low off the
CA increases southerly flow. Monday remains dry across the
region, though increasing mid-level moisture will reveal itself
along the NV border, and more so across western Harney County
with the development of afternoon cumulus. Any shower or
thunderstorm threat on Monday will remain across northern CA and
s-central Oregon. The heat peaks on Tuesday with highs around
100 through the Snake Plain and lower elevations in SE Oregon,
while mtn valleys approach 90. Models have trended a degree or
two lower with recent solutions and are borderline Advisory
level for the Lower Treasure Valley zone (Ontario area) and
portions of Baker County, while below criteria elsewhere.
Given the forecast trend, holding off on Heat Advisory for
now. Moisture aloft will extend north and east on Tuesday,
introducing a 10-20% chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms from northern Harney County, through Baker
County. With precipitable water values around 0.50 inches
(40-50th %tile) and hot/dry lower surface conditions, gusty
outflow winds would be the most likely shower/storm attribute.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The closed low off
the CA coast, gets lifted north, than eastward on Wednesday,
tracking through SE Oregon and SW Idaho. This is a northward
shift from yesterday and is looking like a favorable track (and
timing) for shower and thunderstorm development. Have introduced
low chance of showers and thunderstorms (15-20%) for Wednesday
afternoon and evening across SE Oregon and portions of SW Idaho.
The best chance will stretch from central Harney and Malheur
counties north and east into the w-central Idaho mtns. The
Treasure Valley looks to be on the eastern fringe for
development. Dry conditions return for the end of the week
and next weekend. The upper ridge is suppressed Thur/Fri by a
passing upper trough which will act to cool temperatures to
near normal or slightly below normal. The heat will return next
weekend (and likely into the following week) as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the western US.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG