925
FXUS64 KFWD 142340
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
640 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

A calm, rain-free night is in store for North and Central Texas
with winds gradually becoming southerly to southeasterly just
after midnight tonight. Overnight lows will be mild but pleasant,
generally ranging in the low to mid 60s. A few locations across
our southeastern counties could see some patchy fog by daybreak
Wednesday, though this potential is quite low (<10% chance).

Quasi-zonal flow with continued influence from high pressure will
allow for a warm but relatively uneventful Wednesday. Afternoon
highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s, which will
be several degrees above seasonal norms. Southerly winds will
pick up through the afternoon, gusting upwards of 20 mph. High
clouds will spread across the region through the day ahead of our
next rain-making system. More details can be found in the long
term portion of the forecast, down below.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

The much needed break in the rain will only last briefly with
increasing thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday night through
Friday across much of North and Central Texas. Several weak
shortwave disturbances will stream out ahead of the parent
mid-/upper-level trough located over the Desert Southwest helping
to initiate scattered convection along a dryline out in West
Texas late Wednesday afternoon. This activity may approach our Big
Country counties late Wednesday evening, but it is more likely
that we see convection develop over our forecast area later
Wednesday night as a strengthening low-level jet transports
greater quality moisture over locations primarily along/west of
I-35.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the
day Thursday as warm/moist advection further strengthens across
North and Central Texas and the aforementioned upper trough
approaches from the west. With no glaring surface boundaries in
our vicinity, the placement of convection will largely be driven
by mesoscale features. This is leading to some discrepancies in
where the greatest rainfall will fall, but the general trend in
QPF is for rainfall to start along/west of I-35 during the day
Thursday shifting east-southeast toward our Central TX/East
TX/Brazos Valley counties Thursday evening and Thursday night.
Access to more high-resolution guidance over the next 24-36 hours
will help us determine more accurate timing and location details.

Excessive rainfall leading to new and reaggravated flooding
issues will be the primary concern with this event. Most recent
NAM and GFS guidance highlight 1.8-2.0" PWATs south of I-20
Thursday into Thursday night (potentially exceeding climatological
maxima). Corfidi vectors are forecasted to remain generally
parallel to mean storm motions, suggesting the potential for
training/backbuilding thunderstorms. As of now, a widespread
0.5-1.5" of rainfall seems likely with a 30-40% chance that
locations across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley see totals
exceed 2" through Friday and a 10-20% chance that totals exceed
4". The Weather Prediction Center has included much of the already
water-logged area south of I-20 and east of I-35 in a Moderate
Risk for excessive rainfall where these isolated greater amounts
will likely occur. At least a low end threat for severe weather
will exist Thursday as well with impressive boundary layer
moisture and sufficient instability and shear in place. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible in a few storms,
primarily along/west of I-35 and south of I-20 where thunderstorms
will have access to 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Elevated storms across
portions of East and Southeast Texas may still pose a hail
threat.

The bulk of the rainfall should come to an end from west to east
by early Friday. It is important to note another shortwave
rounding about the southwestern periphery of the parent trough may
bring another shot of heavy rainfall to our southern counties
Friday evening/night, however a majority of current guidance keeps
this activity generally south and east of our forecast area in the
deeper moisture (something to monitor).

Rain-free conditions will return by Saturday and may extend into
the middle portions of next week as ensembles continue to
highlight a building ridge over the Southern Plains toward the end
of the weekend. On the other hand, this would tick temperatures up
into the upper 80s to mid-90s for much of North and Central Texas
by Sunday. With abundant moisture remaining over the region, it is
possible we see heat indices rise into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites, with no
aviation concerns through the period. Generally clear skies with
occasional cirrus will be the dominant weather for the region.
There is a very low chance for patchy fog, but this meager
potential will remain well east of all the TAF sites. Southerly
winds around 10 to 15 kts will spread across the region tomorrow
afternoon. Storm chances will return to the region late Wednesday
night, and will be worth monitoring as we move into tomorrow.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  89  68  80  67 /   0   0  10  60  60
Waco                63  87  66  78  67 /   0   0  10  80  60
Paris               59  86  66  83  64 /   0   5   5  30  70
Denton              62  88  67  80  65 /   5   5  20  60  70
McKinney            61  88  67  80  65 /   0   0  10  50  70
Dallas              65  89  69  81  67 /   0   0  10  60  60
Terrell             61  87  66  80  65 /   0   0   5  50  70
Corsicana           64  87  67  81  67 /   0   0  10  70  70
Temple              62  88  65  79  67 /   0   0  10  80  50
Mineral Wells       62  90  65  78  64 /   0   0  20  80  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$