893
FXUS61 KCTP 140809
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
409 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid
* Afternoon and evening focused showers and thunderstorms are
  expected through Monday, with the most widespread activity,
  featuring locally heavy downpours this afternoon and evening.
* At this point, Tuesday looks like the driest day of the next
  seven

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
Showers redeveloping over Lycoming/Sullivan counties will bring
a short period of rain back into hard hit areas, but new
rainfall amounts this morning should bring only minor responses
from streams.

Another area of showers will impact the Laurel Highlands during
the early morning hours.

Elsewhere, stabilization of the boundary layer and diminishing
topographic effects will greatly reduce the coverage and
strength of any lingering convection across much of the Central
and Western Mtns, though decoupling of the BLYR and an
enhancement of the LLJ could bring a few more elevated, brief
heavy rain producers overnight,

Fog is possible, esp where the rain fell earlier. But, two
areas of lower clouds are expected, one over the NW with a
lowering inversion there, and marine air trying to get back in
like it has both of the last two nights. But, the SErly flow may
not be as strong as the past two nights. We will still paint
some higher cloud cover in the east, but not bring it too far
into the CWA.

Low temps tonight will be fairly similar to last night with
mid-upr 60s across the Northern and Western Mtns and low to mid
70s in the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Short MBE vectors and relatively light flow (still only 20KT
deep shear over MDT) continue today, as the last many days, and
will keep the FF risk higher than normal. ERO bumped up into the
moderate category for our SErn third, with slight risk for good
portion of central mountains, then tapers to nil for the NW few
counties. The moisture and approach of a stronger longer- wave
trough will create widespread SHRA/TSRA in the aftn/evening,
mainly over the eastern half of the area. Posted another FF
Watch for Mon that runs through 04z for southeast portion of CWA,
as activity should persist there well into the evening. Though
potential for isolated downpours to cause localized water issues
for central mountains in the afternoon is also possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday
evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no
precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning
hours on Tuesday. This will be short-lived, however, as the
front will move back in to the southern tier Tuesday afternoon
and trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Large-scale pattern remains fairly consistent, allowing for
continued chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
across central Pennsylvania throughout much of the long-term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers will persist in vicinity of IPT and JST. Otherwise,
overnight, patchy fog is likely where it rained earlier, and
there is a 50% chc that the marine stratus gets back into the
far eastern terminals (LNS, MDT as well as MUI) through the
night. Have brought most everyone into MVFR overnight and IFR
for BFD, UNV, IPT, MDT and LNS.

Still a 90% chc for a break in the convection between 08Z and
14Z. But the approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is
a good signal that storms will form again Monday. Will just
mention after 16Z. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV-
AOO depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are
possible to the NW of that area.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct PM TSRA poss, mainly south.

Thurs-Fri...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall late Sunday/early Monday caused Muncy Creek to quickly
rise 6+ feet overnight along with significant rises on some of
its tributaries. The gage at Glen Mawr saw a rise of over 10ft,
with a manual reading peaking near 12.75ft. The creek levels
are slowly receeding early this morning, but a flood watch
continues for lingering high water in portions of SE Lycoming
and southern Sullivan counties through sunrise.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for PAZ036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo/RXR
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/RXR
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/RXR
LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB
AVIATION...Dangelo/RXR
HYDROLOGY...RXR