Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 240359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1159 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A ridge of surface high pressure will build into the region this
weekend, bringing generally fair and dry weather. An upper
level disturbance and weak backdoor cold front could bring a few
snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. After that, we should
have a stretch of quiet weather until a slow-moving cold front
approaches from the west around midweek and brings an increasing
chance of rain showers.


Downsloping NW flow will keep skies mainly clear overnight to
the southeast of the mtns. Upslope should maintain some strato
cu across the north and west, although even there the cloud
cover appears to be eroding slowly.

Temps will be chilly overnight, with lows ranging from the mid
teens in the NW mtns and Laurels to the mid 20s in the Susq


Winds will veer slightly to become more northerly on Saturday,
as sfc high pressure over northern Ontario ridges southeastward
into the region. A bit of strato cu may linger across nrn PA,
while some high clouds push into SW PA later in the day.
Otherwise, skies should be partly to mostly sunny.

Highs on Saturday will remain several degrees below normal,
ranging from the mid 30s across the nrn mountains and the
Laurels to the low 40s in the Lower Susq Valley.


Little change in model guidance for the extended period as we
transition from blocking cold regime to more moderate conditions
by the middle of next week. Model guidance continues to
indicate cool and dry weather Sunday with perhaps some light
flurries or sprinkles possible in the afternoon still with cold
air aloft and steep lapse rates overhead. Kept my zones dry at
this time. Sfc high remains wedged east of the Appalachians
through Tuesday delaying the moderation for areas east of the
Alleghenies. Simultaneously, a sfc front will be approaching
from the west and may arrive by late Wednesday with isold to sct
showers. It does appear that the mild air will finally win out
by mid week with temperatures cracking 50F just about everywhere
on Wednesday.

Medium range models form a wave along the initial baroclinic
zone which is made to clear the area by early Thursday. This
wave ripples newd along it bringing another chance for rain
showers throughout central PA Thursday into Friday as a much
colder air mass builds over south central Canada and pushes into
the western and central GLAKS by late Friday. It appears that
this anomalously cold air mass will reach PA by the end of next
week and reside for at least part of next weekend with below
normal temperatures and a chance of rain or snow showers.


Mainly VFR conditions across the region this evening. MVFR
ceilings have now moved into KJST, and still looking that
similar restrictions possible at KBFD later tonight. Have backed
off a bit on the forecast restrictions moving into KBFD, with
now only a mention of a TEMPO group from 08z to 12z.

Areas of MVFR ceilings over the western and northern mountains
will persist into Saturday morning.

Ceiling restrictions on Saturday will give way to VFR
conditions across the entire region as a ridge of high pressure
builds into the region.


Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected, though a few periods of MVFR are
possible across the northern and western mtns of PA Sat night
into Sunday.

Wed...Thickening clouds with a likelihood of rain showers.
Widespread MVFR Cigs likely developing.




NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Jung is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.