Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 280756
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring warm and humid conditions for Memorial
Day. The remnants of tropical system Alberto will affect the
region by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Only some cirrus across our southern zones this morning with a
mid- level ridge building over the plains. Today will be hot and
humid as mid-level ridging continues to amplify and head east.
At the same time subtropical storm Alberto will push inland over
Alabama. This will create a Rex block allowing temperatures to
be hot this afternoon. 850 MB temperatures are forecast to be
around 18 degrees C (slightly higher on the NAM and lower on the
ECMWF) with 1000/ 850 MB thicknesses around 1420 M. MET
guidance is giving mid 90s across the north today which appears
to be a bit excessive, but have gone ahead and raised high
temperatures a degree or two across the central and northern
zones today.

Precipitation wise the area looks fairly dry this afternoon with
the exception again being across northern Kentucky. PWATs across
the Bluegrass remain around 1.8" while over KILN PWATs are
forecast to be less than 1.00". Due to this have kept PoPs
across the far southern zones; while keeping the rest of the
area dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
During the day Tuesday the remnants of Alberto will push north
into Tennessee with the Rex Block beginning to loose cohesion.
Widespread cirrus debris will likely move over the area helping
to keep high temperatures a bit suppressed compared to previous
forecasts. 850 MB temperatures also drop by a degree or two.
Most of the day Tuesday will likely be dry (except for northern
Kentucky) as lower PWAT air tries to hold on as the Rex Block
collapses.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 00Z models are in decent agreement tracking the remnant low from
Alberto north northwestward from the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday night
into the western Great Lakes through Wednesday night. While this
should keep the axis of heaviest rainfall off to our west, as the
tropical moisture overspreads the region, we will still see fairly
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms overspread our area
later Tuesday night and through the day on Wednesday. Highs on
Wednesday may be tempered a tad by the clouds and moisture with
highs mostly in the lower 80s.

There are still some uncertainties as to how the remnants of Alberto
will phase with short wave energy moving across the Great Lakes. The
GFS continues to suggest a retrograding low will work back down into
the Ohio Valley through the weekend while the ECMWF remains more
aggressive moving the energy off to our east through the end of the
week. Given the uncertainties, will continue with persistence and
hang on to mainly chance pops for Thursday into Friday with
decreasing pops then heading into the weekend. Expect highs Thursday
and Friday in the mid 80s, cooling to highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cirrus will continue through the TAF period this morning with
winds light and variable (thanks to the extremely weak pressure
gradient). Some MVFR restrictions are possible overnight as
dewpoint depressions are approaching zero in rural areas. Over
the major urban areas dewpoint depressions are still a couple of
degrees at least.

Any restrictions to MVFR will quickly dissipate in the morning
with some cu developing. Winds will become east at less than 10
kts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Friday.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines



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