Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 200830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
430 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018


.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
A strong cold front is on track to move south through the
Florida Peninsula today and tonight. Continued southwest low
level flow ahead of this front has brought surface dew
points up to the upper 60s and low 70s across the area,
leading to widespread fog/mist and low stratus across the
area early this morning. However, winds are breezy enough
to keep the fog from getting particularly dense, so
visibilities are generally expected to remain around 2
miles or greater through around sunrise.

With the moist airmass in place ahead of the front and
breezy winds aloft producing strong wind shear, numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the front and spread south through the area today. With such
strong shear and cool mid level temperatures, conditions
are in place for some of the storms to become severe, with
damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornados all
possible. Apart from the storms, a tight pressure gradient
along the frontal passage will also produce gusty winds
across the area this afternoon. As a result, a Lake Wind
Advisory is in effect for this afternoon into early this
evening for the entire area. In addition, the breezy onshore
flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents along area
beaches this afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will clear out from north to south
this afternoon through early this evening, with clearing,
but still breezy conditions filling in overnight.
Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s under sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Broad troughing will remain across the eastern half of the
country as ridging builds over the west and then shifts
eastward through the end of the week. At the surface, high
pressure will build over the southeast through Thursday,
with a cool and dry air mass in place over Florida. Highs
will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s under sunny

As we head into Friday and the weekend, mid/upper-level
ridging will gradually build over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida as surface high pressure gets pushed out into the
Atlantic. This will lead to warming temperatures each day
through Sunday. Friday will still nice, with highs only a
few degrees above those for Thursday, but temperatures
continue to increase for both Saturday and Sunday, ending up
in the mid 80s across parts of the interior for Sunday.
This pattern is generally forecast to persist into the start
of next week ahead.


Widespread MVFR ceilings and visibilities with isolated IFR
ceilings will continue overnight, with areas of IFR ceilings
expected to increase in coverage closer to sunrise. Showers
and thunderstorms will spread south into the Tampa Bay area
terminals during the morning hours, and into southwest
Florida during the afternoon hours, with gusty winds turning
to westerly. Showers and storms will clear out from north
to south during the late afternoon and early evening, but
breezy winds are expected to hold overnight.


Southwest winds will increase today across the coastal
waters ahead of an approaching cold front with numerous
thunderstorms and advisory level winds and seas spreading
across the area by this afternoon and evening. Winds will
turn to the northwest overnight behind the front, remaining
breezy through Wednesday morning before beginning to subside
through the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure with
then fill in Thursday through the weekend, with winds
holding around 15 knots or less.


A cold front will move south through the area today with
numerous thunderstorms and breezy winds, leading to high
dispersion values over the interior. Much drier air will
then fill in Wednesday, with critical humidity values expected
during the afternoon for much of the area.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  58  68  49 /  80  10   0   0
FMY  81  62  73  50 /  70  40   0   0
GIF  83  54  72  46 /  80  20   0   0
SRQ  76  61  69  51 /  80  10   0   0
BKV  79  52  68  40 /  80  10   0   0
SPG  78  59  68  53 /  80  10   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal
     Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
     Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from Noon today until 1 PM
     EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.



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