Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 140050
SWODY1
SPC AC 140048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds are the primary threat with convection across the
northern High Plains region this evening.

...Northern High Plains...

Primary short-wave trough has ejected north of the international
border and is topping the ridge over AB/SK early this evening.
Southern influence of this feature appears to be aiding isolated
thunderstorms over southeast AB to northeast of GTF. In the absence
of meaningful large-scale ascent, strong surface heating/steep
low-level lapse rates remain instrumental for potential gusty winds
in association with scattered high-based convection. Several
measured severe wind gusts have been observed across
central/south-central MT with this activity and wind remains the
greatest threat for the next few hours as convection spreads east.
Downstream, much greater buoyancy resides near the MT/ND border just
east of the lee trough. Earlier there was an attempt at a robust
updraft over southwest ND. However, this convection has struggled to
organize and may continue to do so despite somewhat more favorable
thermodynamic environment/low-level convergence.

..Darrow.. 08/14/2022

$$


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