Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252131 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 531 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- A critically dry air mass and an increase in southeast downslope winds will result in increased fire danger through late this evening. - Above normal temperatures return today before another round of rainfall late tonight and Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. - Temperatures cool to within a few degrees of normal from Tuesday through Friday, with the threat for sub-freezing temperatures returning for many valley locations by Thursday night. - PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend, with temperatures returning to around 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 447 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2024 Presently the forecast area is under the regime of surface high pressure ahead of an approaching surface low. One low exists over the Central Plains while another exists across the Deep South. The Central Plains low will eject northeast into the Great Lakes and drag a cold front through the region. A deep column of dry air exists across the area with the surface high present. This has allowed for dewpoints to plummet into the upper-teens with RHs in the lower teens this afternoon. The low dewpoints coupled with strong winds will allow for increased fire weather dangers. While the area will remain below RFW criteria, the dry weather and gusty wind will allow for a fire to grow out of control. Also, winds will continue to remain below wind advisory criteria as a strong inversion is in place and there`s no feature to mix those winds down to the surface. However, gusts to 35 mph isn`t out of the question later tonight and into early Tuesday afternoon. Locally higher gusts will be possible mainly across the high terrain along the Virginia border. As the aforementioned surface low ejects into the Great Lakes tonight; the associated cold front will gradually move into the Commonwealth and approach the JKL CWA after 3 AM. However, due to widespread dry air in place, large scale evaporation will occur and until the column saturates, rain accumulations will be relegated to sprinkles or light rain. Along the front, thunderstorms are possible. Today`s CAM guidance has continued to come in a little bit heavier on the forecast CAPE ahead of the front. The best CAPE gradient looks to be along and west of the I-75 corridor and this is where the best chances for thunderstorms exist. Not looking at any severe storms but a rumble of thunder or two is possible. Showers will increase in coverage through the overnight as the front crosses through the CWA. Showers will begin to decrease in coverage from west to east early Tuesday afternoon with only lingering upslope showers in place for the end of the period. Overall QPF amounts have come up a little bit in this afternoon`s forecast package but widespread 0.20" to 0.30" of rainfall with 0.50" along the Hal Rogers Parkway is expected. Locally higher amount is possible where thunderstorm activity is confined. Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by warm, dry and windy conditions transitioning into a weak cold front that`ll bring wetting rain and isolated thunderstorms through the end of the period. High temperatures in the low to mid-70s is expected today with overnight lows only dropping into the low-50s. As expected with the rain, Tuesday will be cooler with highs only topping out in the lower-60s and falling temperatures overnight Wednesday as the front exits the region. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 531 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2024 A deeper trough will start out across the center of the CONUS, with a stout closed low swinging through the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region. This feature will curl northeast into Ontario through Thursday, with the long wave trough axis shifting east, clearing the central and southern Appalachians by Thursday evening, with surface high pressure building in from the west. Upstream, modest ridging will move from the Rockies to the Plains, before dampening even further as it crosses the Mississippi Valley. Mainly zonal flow will then be found east of the Mississippi River by this weekend and into early next week, as a positively tilted trough in more of a split-flow regime takes shape out west and gradually moves southeast with time. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will gradually develop from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley by this weekend and early next week. Model agreement is good through late in the work week, but then declines somewhat towards the end of the period, as details associated with the nearing frontal boundary to our northwest becomes lower confidence. Sensible weather features diminishing slight chance PoPs across far eastern Kentucky through the day on Wednesday, as the cold front pulls further away. The frontal timing will yield a good gradient of temperatures across the area, with locations further east perhaps nearing 70 degrees, while sites across the Bluegrass will remain near or just below 60 degrees. The trough axis will remain to our west Wednesday night, with at least some lingering clouds combatting the cool air advection across our southeast, with most places staying above freezing. Locations towards the Bluegrass as well as along and west of I-75 stand a better chance of nearing the freezing mark. High pressure will build in more solidly Thursday into Thursday night, with drier air likely to mix down some dew points in the mid 20s during peak heating...closer to the 10th percentile of the blended guidance. This will setup a colder night overall for Thursday night, with the typically colder valley sites dipping below 30 degrees. Temperatures will gradually modify through the rest of the period, as more of a return flow ensues. Bouts of 850 mb moisture transport will then advect in from the west southwest this weekend and especially early next week, as a frontal boundary generally sags closer to the vicinity of the area. Slight chance PoPs (20%) will return from the northwest as early as late Friday night. Small chance PoPs (20-30%) will then continue to threaten a larger portion of the forecast area through this weekend, with even a threat of some thunderstorms at times. By early next week, PoPs increase to good chance (40-60%), as deeper moisture and forcing arrive, with front drawing closer. Temperatures will trend back to around 10 degrees above normal towards the end of the period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period except for a few hours toward the end of the period. Southeasterly winds sustained 10 knots with gusts 15 to 20 knots are expected through the period as the area is ahead of a cold front. Around 01Z, LLWS will develop and persist through about 14Z. During this time frame, showers and isolated storms will increase in coverage and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. CIGS may lower enough to flirt with MVFR; however, kept the TAFs low end VFR for the last couple of hours of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...VORST

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