944
FXUS63 KLBF 072351
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
   afternoon through Thursday, with no severe weather
   anticipated.

-  Upper level ridging amplifies over the western United States
   late this week and into the weekend, with drier
   northwesterly flow developing aloft.

-  Temperatures remain below average in the 60s through
   Thursday, before warming back into the 70s/80s this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Currently, scattered showers have begun to develop across much of
the Sandhills, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting at least
meager instability amid a very dry boundary layer. WInds remain
gusty from the west-northwest this afternoon, with the area still
under the influence of a deep surface low over the Dakotas.

For tonight, expect showers/isolated thunderstorms to persist
through late this afternoon, before quickly waning after sunset with
the loss of diurnal heating. Winds will weaken somewhat overnight as
the aforementioned surface low continues to weaken over the
Dakotas, and cold advection wanes near sunrise tomorrow morning.
This will promote lows falling into the 30s across western
Nebraska to near 40 degrees in central/north central Nebraska.

By tomorrow, the large upper low anchored over the northern Plains
will begin to slide southward, becoming centered overhead by
tomorrow afternoon. This will usher in ample cold air aloft to
steepen lapse rates in the mid-levels, and should result in the
development of scattered showers/thunderstorms across the area yet
again. Deep layer shear remains very weak to add to the very limited
instability, so not expecting any strong storms tomorrow. With a
very dry boundary layer yet again, QPFs will remain light, with
locally up to a few tenths of an inch at best. A weak frontal
boundary passes through the area in the afternoon, with winds
returning west-northwesterly in its wake, with at least some
increase in cold advection as well. This will knock ~5-10 degrees
off today`s highs, generally in the 50s to low 60s. Winds also
remain breezy from the northwest, with a belt of stronger H7 flow
across western Nebraska on the western periphery of the mid-level
low center diving southeasterly across northeast Nebraska. Gusts of
25-30 miles per hour can be expected for areas west of HWY 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The area remains under the influence of the aforementioned
upper low again on Thursday, with yet another round of showers
and thunderstorms through the afternoon. As with Wednesday, not
anticipating any strong storms, with little in the way of deep
layer shear. By Friday, the upper low will finally exit the area
off to the east, with upper ridging amplifying across the
western CONUS. A cutoff low is progged to meander near the Four
Corners late week into the weekend as well. Flow aloft
transitions northwesterly, with at least a brief reprieve from
precipitation chances anticipated. Low level flow locally
finally transitions southerly by the weekend, with increasing
warm advection boosting temperatures back into the 70s to low
80s. The aforementioned cutoff low will slowly push eastward
into the central Plains by late weekend/early next week, and
could bring the return of precipitation back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024


Mostly quiet aviation conditions are expected over the next day.
Stronger winds present this afternoon will begin to lessen during
the evening. Any isolated showers across northern Nebraska will also
dissipate after sunset. Another round of afternoon showers are
possible again on Wednesday, but confidence remains too low to put
it in the prevailing forecast at this time.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik