Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
399 FXUS62 KCHS 061729 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken over eastern North Carolina today as the system moves away from the area. Weak high pressure will then rebuild across the area and prevail through the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-day update: TD Chantal was trekking north across the SC/NC state line. Cloud cover and bands of light rain and drizzle will pass over the SC Lowcountry early this afternoon. This afternoon, convection should deepen, resulting in at least isolated thunderstorms within pockets of scattered showers. The cloud cover, rounds of light rainfall, and west-northwest winds should keep highs across the SC Lowcountry limited to the mid to upper 80s, peaking around 90 across SE GA. Tonight: Any lingering isolated shower/tstm activity will dissipate early in the evening as Chantal weakens and moves farther away from the area. Some lingering feeder bands could redevelop over the Atlantic late which could brush the upper portions of Charleston County; however, most areas should remain rain-free through the night. Lows will range from the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Remnants of Chantal will continue to pull northward away from the region Monday, with the surface pattern to then feature high pressure offshore with a trough of low pressure inland. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be scant Monday (POPs ~10- 25%), as the axis of highest moisture shifts northward. Model soundings also indicate subsidence in the wake of the departing low Monday, becoming more subtle by Tuesday. Therefore there could be slightly greater shower/tstm coverage Tuesday afternoon, increasing for Wednesday afternoon as the area transitions into a seasonable pattern. High temperatures will jump back in the mid to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday with mostly sunny skies forecast. With accompanying dew points nearing the mid 70s, heat indices in a few spots could make a run for Heat Advisory criteria (108F degrees), mainly Tuesday. Both nights will be mild with min overnight temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday should see highs about 1-2 degrees cooler with increased convection. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak flow within subtle ridging aloft will persist along with no discernible synoptic features. Therefore, the forecast will be dominated by a typical summertime sea breeze pattern, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day especially in the afternoon and early evening when instability is maximized. Highs are forecast to remain in the low/mid 90s inland of the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 18Z TAFs, KCLX detected a band of light showers across the I-26 corridor, tracking towards the coast. These showers may pass over KCHS and KJZI between 19-23Z, highlighted with TEMPOs. In the meantime, MVFR ceilings across KCHS and KJZI may linger through much of this afternoon. As TD Chantal weakens and tracks well north of the region this evening, restrictive ceilings should dissipate and winds should shift from the SW. Conditions overnight into Monday morning are forecast to remain VFR with SW winds between 5 to 10 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief ceiling/vsby restrictions possible due to scattered showers and thunderstorms closer to mid week. && .MARINE... Today: Conditions will steadily improve across the waters today as TD Chantal moves farther inland. Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. Tonight: Southwest winds will persist in the wake of Chantal with speeds averaging 10-15 kt over the Georgia waters and 15-20 kt over the South Carolina waters. Seas will subside 2-4 ft, except 3-5 ft over the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg. Monday through Friday: Relatively benign conditions will persist through the period as winds settle into a SW flow with the Tropical Storm, or the remnants of, Chantal located to the north and high pressure to the east. No marine concerns/headlines expected during the period with winds 15 kt or less and seas 2-4 ft. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents exists for all area beaches due to residual swell. Lingering swell will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents for the Charleston/Colleton County beaches. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE...