Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 231829
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop
tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into
portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal
fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire
Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions.
While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest
Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to
account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday.

Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are
expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely
starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally
extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will
overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts
eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma
border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely
to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following
that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning
ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western
Oklahoma.

While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have
hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are
some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to
spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to
exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including
possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the
afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward
and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the
aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values
are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area,
but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely
to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and
impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and
move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the
northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will
increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will
likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on
the southern High Plains.

..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains
tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone
over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will
become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern
High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire
weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+
mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts)
will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across
portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles,
west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel
receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant
fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support
high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy
and dry meteorological surface conditions.

Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across
portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon.
While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping
Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this
region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past
week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of
localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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